Five years after the lines of control in Syria solidified, the country has witnessed a dramatic shift in the balance of power. Syrian opposition factions launched a sweeping offensive dubbed “Deter Aggression” ten days ago, seizing control of approximately 250 towns and villages, effectively doubling the territory under their control.
The opposition’s advance has been swift and decisive. Within 24 hours, they captured Aleppo, Idlib, and Latakia, as Syrian regime front lines crumbled one after another. By Friday, the opposition had reached Homs.
Foreign Policy magazine described these recent developments as unsurprising, stating, “The head of the Syrian regime, Bashar al-Assad, did not actually win during the revolution in his country. Instead, his regime has continued to weaken, and his position has become more fragile than ever before.”
Miscalculations and Shifting Priorities
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The magazine attributed the regime’s decline to waning international interest in the Syrian conflict. Diplomatic efforts have stalled, and governments have redirected resources to address other global challenges. Some Arab governments have even begun re-engaging with Assad since 2023, effectively rehabilitating his standing in the Middle East.
for U.S. policymakers, this regional re-engagement with the Syrian file has been a welcome advancement, signaling a potential easing of the burden.Meanwhile, ten European countries, led by Italy, have also initiated renewed communication with Assad.
“The recent developments in Syria are a stark reminder of the complex and ever-evolving nature of the conflict,” said a senior U.S. official,speaking on condition of anonymity. “While we welcome any efforts to find a peaceful resolution, we remain deeply concerned about the humanitarian situation and the potential for further violence.”
The situation in Syria remains highly volatile, and the international community is closely watching to see how these latest developments will unfold.
The Syrian regime, facing mounting economic woes and international isolation, is increasingly reliant on illicit activities, particularly the lucrative Captagon trade, to maintain its grip on power.This reliance, though, is exacerbating the country’s humanitarian crisis and further destabilizing the already fragile security apparatus.
Recent developments, including diplomatic overtures from Arab nations and discussions on the return of Syrian refugees, have been interpreted by some as a sign of the regime’s strengthening position. However, analysts argue that this is a miscalculation. The regime, they say, is exploiting the dire situation in Syria to consolidate its authority, but this strategy is ultimately unsustainable.
Economic Collapse and the Rise of “Organized crime”
Syria’s economy has been in freefall for years. The Syrian pound has plummeted to a record low of 17,500 against the dollar, a stark contrast to its value of 1,150 in early 2020. This economic collapse has deepened the humanitarian crisis, with the United Nations reporting that 90% of Syrians now live below the poverty line.
“The regime’s embrace of ‘organized crime’ generates at least $2.4 billion annually from the sale of Captagon, a highly addictive amphetamine,” according to a recent analysis.”Though, these profits have done little to alleviate the suffering of the Syrian people.”
Government subsidies for essential goods like fuel and food have been drastically reduced, further compounding the economic hardship faced by ordinary Syrians. The regime’s traditional allies,Russia and Iran,are also grappling with their own economic challenges,limiting their ability to provide financial support.
The Captagon Trade: Fueling the Regime’s Grip on Power
As Syria’s economy crumbles, “organized crime” and the industrial-scale production and smuggling of Captagon have become deeply entrenched within the regime’s security apparatus. The Fourth Division,led by Bashar al-Assad’s brother Maher,is widely believed to control the drug trade,with its network extending throughout the regime’s army and allied militias.
“The Syrian regime has become the world’s largest drug regime, specializing in the production of Captagon,” the analysis states. This illicit trade has not only generated vast profits but has also served to undermine what little cohesion remained within the Syrian security state.
The ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, and Lebanon have further diverted Russia and Iran’s attention away from Syria, weakening their ability to maintain control over the regime’s security apparatus.
A Fragile Military and an Uncertain Future
Despite Russia’s eight-year investment in rebuilding the syrian army, recent events have exposed its limitations. While some specialized units, like the 25th Special Task Force, have shown improved capabilities, the regime’s forces as a whole remain poorly coordinated and ill-equipped to face sustained pressure.
The Syrian regime’s reliance on illicit activities, coupled with its economic woes and a weakened military, paints a bleak picture for the future. While the regime may appear to be consolidating its power in the short term, its long-term prospects remain uncertain.
“The regime’s strategy of exploiting the crisis to maintain control is ultimately unsustainable,” the analysis concludes. “The deepening humanitarian crisis, the rise of ‘organized crime,’ and the regime’s growing isolation will continue to undermine its legitimacy and threaten its grip on power.”
The Syrian regime’s military might has been steadily weakening, plagued by internal decay and external fragmentation. This decline stands in stark contrast to the advancements made by opposition groups like Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), who have been diligently bolstering their capabilities since 2020.
“In almost every respect, the regime’s military machine has stagnated in recent years, eroding from within and fragmenting from without,”
HTS, in particular, has emerged as a formidable force, establishing new units and developing sophisticated military tactics. these advancements have significantly altered the dynamics of the battlefield in recent conflicts.
“Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham has created entirely new units and advanced military capabilities that have arguably changed the rules of the game on the battlefield in recent days,”
The group’s resurgence poses a significant challenge to the Syrian regime, which has struggled to maintain control amidst ongoing internal strife and external pressures.
## Shifting Sands: Examining the Syrian Regime’s Precarious hold on Power
**World-Today-News.com Exclusive Interview with Dr. Lina Khatib, Director of the Middle East & North Africa Program at Chatham House**
**[Intro Paragraph]**
Five years after the lines of control in Syria solidified, a dramatic shift in the balance of power has sent shockwaves through the region. The Syrian opposition’s sweeping offensive, dubbed “Deter Aggression,” has seen them seize control of vast swathes of territory, doubling thier land holdings in just ten days.This contemporary analysis of the Syrian conflict, based on verified information from journalists on the ground, seeks to unpack the factors contributing to the regime’s fragility, the potential impact on regional stability, and the dangerous entanglements of organized crime within the very structures of power.
**[Question 1]** Dr. Khatib, the opposition’s recent victories have been swift and decisive. Could you elaborate on the factors contributing to the Syrian regime’s diminished strength?
**Dr. Khatib:** the Syrian regime, despite clinging to power for over a decade, has been weakening for years. We’ve seen a waning of international interest in the conflict and a stalling of diplomatic efforts. This has allowed the regime to operate with increased impunity,exacerbating the humanitarian crisis and relying heavily on illicit activities,such as the Captagon trade,to stay afloat.
**[Question 2]** Some international actors have begun re-engaging with Bashar al-Assad, attempting to find a political solution. Do you see these diplomatic overtures as a sign of his strengthening grip on power, or is this a miscalculation?
**Dr. Khatib:** It’s a complex situation. While some may interpret the re-engagement as a sign of Assad’s resurgence, it’s more likely a pragmatic response to the dire situation on the ground.
the international community is fatigued by the conflict and seeking ways to address pressing global issues.though, this is a miscalculation. Assad’s reliance on illicit activities, like the Captagon trade, and his brutal repression tactics have created a deeply unstable surroundings. This cannot be a lasting foundation for a lasting peace.
**[Question 3]** The Syrian economy is in shambles. How has this economic collapse fueled the regime’s reliance on the Captagon trade, and what are the implications for ordinary Syrians?
**Dr. Khatib:** The Syrian pound has plummeted to record lows, driving 90% of the population below the poverty line. Facing acute financial challenges, the regime has turned to organized crime, generating billions of dollars from the production and smuggling of Captagon. This exacerbates the humanitarian crisis and further weakens the rule of law within Syria.
**[Question 4]** How has the “organized crime” element, specifically the involvement of the Fourth division in the Captagon trade, destabilized the Syrian regime further?
**Dr. Khatib:** The Fourth Division’s involvement in the captagon trade has blurred the lines between state power and criminal activity. This not only undermines what little legitimacy the regime still possesses but also creates a web of corruption and dependency within the security apparatus. Ultimately, it breeds instability and sows the seeds for future conflict.
**[Closing Paragraph]**
The recent developments in Syria signal a critical juncture in the ongoing conflict. While the opposition has won meaningful ground militarily, the underlying economic and social crisis, fueled by the regime’s reliance on illicit activities, persists. The international community must recognize the complex and dangerous interplay of these factors and adopt a strategy that tackles the root causes of the conflict, promotes a sustainable peace, and safeguards the rights and well-being of the Syrian people.
