Irish Voters Hand Center-Right Parties Potential Path to Power
The political landscape in Ireland is shifting after the recent general election, leaving the door open for two center-right parties to reclaim control.
Following a vote where housing and homelessness emerged as top concerns, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael appear poised to form the next government. Projections suggest they’ll secure a combined 86 seats in the 160-seat Dáil, falling just short of an outright majority. With Fianna Fáil expected to lead with around 48 seats to Fine Gael’s 38, the fate of Fine Gael leader Simon Harris as Taoiseach (Prime Minister) hangs in the balance.
This potential alliance echoes the last mandate, when the same two parties formed a historic coalition with a rotating Taoiseach system. Micheál Martin currently leads Fianna Fáil, and this arrangement could be resurrected, potentially leading to Harris taking the reins later in their term. However, questions remain about whether a similar rotating system will be implemented this time around.
Concerns linger over the potential fragmentation of the left wing. The Greens, previous partners to Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, suffered a devastating defeat, with only one TD (Member of Parliament) elected. This leaves Sinn Féin as the largest opposition party, but their prospects of leading a government remain slim.
"We have talked about forging a common platform,” Labour leader Ivana Bacik told RTÉ. She emphasized her party’s commitment to delivering change, highlighting the need for "those TDs who share our vision and our values who want to deliver change” like addressing housing, public services, healthcare, childcare, and disability services.
Bacik’s comments signal the possibility of negotiations between Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, the Social Democrats, and Labour. While a tie-up between the big two with independent candidates seems like the most likely outcome, a coalition inclusive of the left-leaning parties can’t be ruled out.
Jack Chambers, Fianna Fáil’s deputy leader, expects these conversations to unfold over several weeks, but dismissed any repeat of the nearly five-month standoff witnessed last time.
"I don’t expect the government to be formed in mid-December,” he said. "Time is needed to discuss negotiations within the party and the space to form ‘a coherent, stable’ arrangement.”
While the shape of the next Irish government remains uncertain, one thing is clear: Irish voters have sent a powerful message, demanding action on pressing issues like housing and homelessness.
