A Holiday Stock Surge: Bulls Charge Ahead Despite Tariff Threats

The holiday season is typically associated with twinkling lights and festive gatherings, but this year, it also brought a surge in the stock market. As 2016 drew to a close, Wall Street found itself in a jubilant mood, with optimism fueled by strong historical trends and the incoming Trump administration’s pro-business agenda.

"The threat of tariffs could boost near-term market volatility, but fundamentals remain positive," noted Mark Haefele of UBS Global Wealth Management.

This bullish sentiment was echoed by Michele Schneider, chief strategist at MargetGuage.com, who told Yahoo Finance, "Right now, there’s no denying that everything looks positive.”

This period’s performance even surprised seasoned analysts. December has a reputation for being a strong month for the S&P 500, but this year it exceeded expectations.

"December has historically been the second best month of the year in election years, with average returns of 1.3% since 1950," said Ryan Detrick, an analyst with Carson Group, highlighting a potential trend fueled by the election cycle.

Adding to the positive outlook, history suggests that a strong year often leads to a strong finish. As Detrick pointed out, “When the S&P 500 rose more than 20% between January and November, its average return in December was 2.4%."

This phenomenon, coupled with the potential for a "Christmas rally" – a surge in prices during the last few trading days of December and the first two of January – further bolstered confidence.

Jeff Hirsch, editor-in-chief of the Stock Investor’s Almanac, emphasized the potential for substantial gains during this period. His research revealed a strategy of buying on the Tuesday before Thanksgiving and holding until the second trading day after New Year’s to be incredibly profitable since 1950.

But the good times might not stop there.

Wall Street strategists predict continued growth in 2017, though perhaps at a slower pace. Deutsche Bank, Yardeni Research, and Barclays all released bullish forecasts, predicting the S&P 500 to reach 7,000 points or higher. Even JPMorgan Chase painted a rosy picture, aiming for 6,500 – a significant jump from 4,200 in the previous two years.

Many see Trump’s economic agenda as a catalyst for this sustained growth. Scott Sperling, co-president of THL Partners, envisioned a future of economic expansion and reduced business costs.

"One of our expectations from the new government is to greatly increase the potential for growth in the economy in general and to reduce the costs of business… The opportunities that the new government will provide may be all the campaigns are bigger," Sperling said.

While uncertainty always lingers, the confluence of historical trends, recent market performance, and optimism surrounding Trump’s policies suggest a potentially prosperous environment for investors willing to ride the wave.

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**Real-time values ​​of US stocks and foreign currencies**

2024-12-02 05:51:00
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