Georgia Grapples with Political Turmoil as Protests Rage Against EU Bid Rejection
Georgia is facing a tense political standoff as anti-government protests continue to erupt in response to the shocking announcement that the country would no longer pursue EU membership negotiations. With a deeply divided society, many are looking to see if the opposition can capitalize on the widespread discontent and ultimately reshape the nation’s political landscape.
Kārlis Daukšts, a prominent political scientist and historian, suggests several possible outcomes for Georgia’s political future. He believes the protests will either force the ruling party, “Georgian Dream,” to make concessions through a "pseudo-reconciliation," potentially with tacit support from Russia, or pave the way for the opposition to gain a foothold in the government.
The path forward for the opposition, however, is fraught with challenges. Daukšts cautions that their success hinges on finding a unifying leader and consolidating their diverse factions. While current President Salome Zurasbishvili is attempting to position herself as a voice of the people against the government, Daukšts believes her chances are slim.
"Her chances are very, very doubtful because Zurasbishvili is also trying to be a protest leader and a leader of the opposition. At the same time, the opposition is currently trying to ‘create a united, consolidated action similar to Maidan,’ which many in Georgia are against. Also [there] is internal political competition, which can be seen in the rhetoric in the opposition," Daukšts explains.
He emphasizes that this rhetoric, often focused on division rather than progress, can be detrimental to mobilizing a genuine movement for change.
"This rhetoric often stops real, revolutionary or organizational work, and often this rhetoric aims not at consolidation but at division," Daukšts asserts.
Beyond the immediate political maneuvers, deeper systemic issues are at play in Georgia’s political turmoil. Daukšts points to the legacy of former President Mikheil Saakashvili, who imprisoned individuals with ties to Russia; and the subsequent release of these figures after Bidzin Ivanishvili, a billionaire and the unofficial leader of "Georgian Dream," came to power. This, according to Daukšts, has fueled dissatisfaction among liberals and those seeking closer ties with Europe.
"In my opinion, this is also an influential force because there is money, fear, many problems arise for the liberal opposition and anti-European forces," he concludes.
Adding to the complexity, the situation in the breakaway region of Abkhazia, where tens of thousands of Georgians were forcibly displaced, remains a deeply sensitive issue.
As the political drama unfolds, the question of President Zurasbishvili’s intentions looms large. Her insistence on remaining in office until a new parliament is elected adds another layer of uncertainty to the already volatile situation.
The eyes of the world, including American observers, are on Georgia as the nation grapples with its future. The outcome of this political struggle has the potential to significantly impact Georgia’s relationship with the West and its geopolitical trajectory in a region increasingly shaped by Russian influence.
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2024-12-01 17:20:00
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## Georgia at a Crossroads: Q&A with Political Scientist Kārlis daukšts
**World-Today News**: Georgia is reeling from the news that EU membership negotiations are off the table. Anti-government protests are intensifying, reflecting deep societal divisions. What are the key factors that led us to this point?
**Kārlis Daukšts**: Several factors have converged to create this volatile situation. First, there’s a longstanding history of strained relations between the ruling Georgian Dream party and the EU. Concerns have been raised regarding democratic backsliding, namely limited press freedom, compromised judicial independence, and perceived political persecution of opposition figures.
second, we must consider the geopolitical context. Russia exerted considerable pressure on Georgia, leveraging its economic and political influence to discourage closer ties with the EU.This pressure played a role in swaying public opinion and arguably contributed to the ruling party’s decision.
the EU itself needs introspection. While officially committed to enlargement, there’s a perceived lack of clarity and commitment towards potential candidates like Georgia. this uncertainty breeds frustration and fuels skepticism among the Georgian population.
**WTN**: How do you see the current protests evolving? will thay lead to significant political change or simply fade away?
**KD**: The protests represent a powerful surge of public anger and disappointment. While it’s difficult to predict a definitive outcome, there are several possible scenarios.
**scenario 1: Pseudo-reconciliation.** The ruling party, under pressure, might offer cosmetic concessions to appease the masses. These may involve superficial reforms or symbolic gestures aimed at placating the protests without fundamentally addressing the underlying issues.
**Scenario 2: Opposition mobilization.** The protests could galvanize the opposition,leading to increased unity and a stronger challenge to the ruling party’s grip on power. Though, the opposition faces internal divisions and a potentially pro-Russian, anti-reformist segment within Georgian society, which may hinder their progress.
**Scenario 3: escalation and instability.** If the protests remain largely leaderless and lack a coherent political strategy, they risk becoming destabilizing. this could create a vacuum prone to manipulation by external forces, potentially exacerbating existing tensions and deepening the country’s divisions.
**WTN**: You mentioned Russia’s role. how notable is their influence on the current situation,and what are their potential objectives in Georgia?
**KD**: Russia’s influence looms large in Georgia. They perceive the country’s westward tilt as a direct threat to their regional interests.
Their objectives are multifaceted. Firstly, they aim to prevent Georgia from aligning with the West and joining NATO and the EU – two organizations seen as antagonistic to Russian ambitions in the region.
Secondly, Russia seeks to maintain its economic and political leverage over Georgia. this involves promoting pro-Russian narratives, supporting pleasant political forces, and exploiting existing internal divisions to weaken the country from within.
Thirdly, they aim to discredit the West and sow doubts about its commitment to Georgia’s future.
**WTN**: What role can the international community play in supporting Georgia’s democratic aspirations amidst these challenges?
**KD**: The international community has a crucial role to play. They must unequivocally condemn any further democratic backsliding and hold the Georgian government accountable for upholding democratic norms and values. Clear and consistent messaging regarding Georgia’s future relationship with the EU is vital to prevent further disillusionment and instability.
Importantly, support should be extended not just to the government but also to civil society organizations, independent media, and defenders of human rights. empowering these actors will be instrumental in fostering a resilient and democratic Georgia capable of withstanding external pressure.
The path ahead for Georgia is fraught with uncertainty. The coming weeks and months will be crucial in determining whether this crisis becomes a catalyst for democratic progress or a descent into further instability. The international community must remain engaged and committed to supporting Georgia’s aspirations for a free and democratic future.
