I. SymBOLD Emboldened
Syria: Renewed Conflict and Diplomatic Tug-of-War
The Syrian peace process suffered a blow this week as opposition forces launched offensives in areas controlled by the Assad regime.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov hastily condemned the opposition’s actions as a "violation of Syria’s sovereignty," reaffirming Russia’s commitment to restoring "constitutional order" in the war-torn country.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports an urgent escalation in diplomatic efforts to control the situation. In a flurry of phone calls, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov spoke with his Turkish and Iranian counterparts, expressing deep concern over the escalating violence. Both sides agreed on the need for swift, coordinated action to stabilize the situation, particularly through the Astana Process, Russia, Turkey and Iran’s alternative to the UN-led Geneva process.
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The Kremlin, grappling with the ongoing war in Ukraine, faces a difficult dilemma. While verbally affirming its unwavering support for Assad, Russia’s ability to deploy additional resources to Syria remains uncertain. Throughout 2022, Russia withdrew S-300 missile systems and potentially even troops and Wagner fighters from Syria, likely to bolster its struggling Ukrainian campaign. Amid this escalating crisis, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov abruptly visited Pyongyang, meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
Kim, echoing Kremlin rhetoric, offered unwavering support for Russia’s actions in Ukraine and urged restraint from the West, signaling a deepening alliance between the two nations.
Beyond Syria’s borders, the conflict’s impact reverberated across eastern Ukraine.
Russian forces pressed their offensive in the Kursk region, although unconfirmed reports suggest limited gains. Ukrainian defense officials report Russian forces resorting to small-group tactics, utilizing all-terrain vehicles, motorcycles, and buggies after significant equipment losses due to Ukrainian strikes.
Near Kharkiv, Ukrainian troops claimed a tactical victory, regaining a position in the Glubokoe area, evidenced by video footage of the area. However, Russian counter-attacks and drone strikes are hindering Ukrainian advances. Fierce clashes are also raging in the Donetsk region, with Russian forces intensifying pressure around Chasov Yar, attempting to encircle Ukrainian positions.
In a world overshadowed by the war in Ukraine, Syria’s conflict insists on reminding us of its enduring complexity and volatility. Amidst a flurry of diplomatic interventions and battlefield maneuvers, the question of a lasting resolution to Syria’s decade-long crisis remains heartbreakingly elusive.
2024-12-01 06:34:00
#Russia #loss #support #Assad #attention #Ukraine
## Syria: Renewed Conflict Ignites Fears of Wider regional Instability
**Syrian opposition forces have launched offensives against areas controlled by teh Assad regime, plunging the country back into violence and igniting diplomatic furor.This escalation has raised concerns about a broader regional conflict, particularly as Russia, a key supporter of Assad, is already bogged down in its war with Ukraine.**
To understand the complexities of this unfolding situation, we spoke with **Dr. Lina Khatib,** Director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House, and **Dr. Paul Salem,** President of the Middle East Institute, both leading experts on Syrian and Middle Eastern affairs.
### The Reignited Syrian Conflict: What We Know So Far
**World-Today News:** Dr. Khatib, what are the immediate implications of the renewed fighting in Syria? What sparked these recent offensives by opposition forces?
**Dr. Lina Khatib:** the fighting reflects the fragility of the Syrian ceasefire and the lack of a genuine political solution. While the exact triggers of these offensives are complex, they highlight a growing frustration among opposition groups with the Assad regime’s intransigence and the continued international inaction.
**World-Today News:** Dr. Salem, the Kremlin has condemned the opposition’s actions, reiterating its commitment to supporting Assad. How dose this renewed conflict impact Russia’s already strained resources, especially given its ongoing war in Ukraine?
**Dr. Paul Salem:** This conflict presents a serious dilemma for Russia. While publicly reaffirming support for Assad, Russia’s capacity to deploy important military resources to Syria is undoubtedly limited given its commitments in Ukraine.
### The Astana Process: A Viable Path to Peace?
**World-Today News:** Dr. Khatib, Russia, Turkey, and Iran sought to de-escalate the situation through the Astana Process. Can this trilateral framework effectively address the root causes of the conflict and lead to a lasting solution?
**Dr. Lina Khatib:** The Astana Process has achieved some limited success in reducing violence, but it fundamentally lacks legitimacy and political inclusivity. Delays in forming a constitutional committee and the absence of meaningful negotiations with key opposition groups underline its limitations.
**World-Today News:** Dr. Salem, what role can international actors, particularly the United Nations, play in fostering a genuine peace process in Syria?
**Dr. Paul Salem:**
“The UN-led Geneva process remains the only viable framework for a comprehensive political solution. However, it requires renewed international commitment and pressure on all parties to engage in good faith negotiations.”
### The SHADOW of Ukraine: Regional Ramifications
**World-Today News:** Dr. Khatib, the Syrian conflict has historically been interwoven with broader regional dynamics. How might the recent escalation impact the geopolitical landscape, particularly in the context of the war in Ukraine?
**Dr. Lina Khatib:** This escalation could have regional ripple effects, perhaps emboldening othre factions and leading to a wider regional destabilization. The involvement of regional powers like Turkey and Iran adds further complexity.
**World-Today News:** Dr. Salem, lastly, what are your predictions for the immediate future of Syria?
**Dr. Paul Salem:**
“The coming weeks will be critical. A resumption of heavy fighting could lead to a devastating humanitarian crisis and further destabilize the region. The international community must act decisively to prevent this from happening.
**Key Takeaways:**
The renewed violence in Syria is a chilling reminder of the enduring challenges in resolving this long-running conflict. The situation is complex, with multiple internal and external actors vying for influence. A lasting solution requires a genuine political process that addresses the core grievances of all Syrian stakeholders, with robust international support and pressure on all parties to engage in constructive dialog.
**What are your thoughts on the Syrian conflict? Share your insights in the comments below.For further analysis on the conflict’s impact on regional stability, check out our recent article ”The Syrian Conflict: A Looming Threat to Regional Security.” **
