Thai Baht Rises Despite Early Week Worries, SET Index Dips
Bangkok, Thailand – The Thai baht experienced a rollercoaster week, regaining ground amidst global economic uncertainty. After a stumble at the start, the currency strengthened, closing at 34.40 baht per US dollar on Friday, November 29th, according to data from Kasikorn Bank.
"The baht weakened at the start of the week against the yuan and most regional currencies," analysts noted, attributing the dip to concerns arising from trade tensions between the United States and China.
These concerns were fueled by statements from newly-elected US President Donald Trump, who indicated preparations for further tariffs on goods imported from China.
However, the baht rebounded mid-week, bolstered by a surge in global gold prices and the strengthening Japanese yen. Expectations of a possible interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in December further contributed to the yen’s gains.
Simultaneously, the US dollar faced selling pressure following a decline in US Bond Yields. This decline was driven by a rise in both the PCE Price Index and Core PCE – inflation indicators – which were in line with market expectations.
"
<img src="https://image.bangkokbiznews.com/uploads/images/contents/w1024/2024/11/r0P411n8k8W6J8YrqsnA.webp?x-image-process=style/lg-webp" alt="MONEY AND STOCK MARKET REVIEW 25-29 November 2024" class="img-fluid w-100 showcaption-false" style="width: 598px; height: 255px;" width="598" height="255" loading="lazy"/>
</picture></center>"This data prompted the market to re-evaluate the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December.
Foreign investors continued to be cautious, selling a net 4,282.1 million baht worth of Thai stocks between November 25th and 29th, but recorded a net inflow of 5,166 million baht into the Thai bond market during the same period.
Looking ahead, Kasikorn Bank projects the baht to trade between 33.90 and 34.60 baht per dollar during the week of December 2nd to 6th. Key factors to watch include Thailand’s November inflation rate and trends in global capital flows towards Asian currencies.
Analysts are also keeping a close eye on several key US economic indicators, including job openings and labor turnover rates (JOLTS), the ISM manufacturing/service sector index, private sector employment numbers, non-farm payroll data, the unemployment rate, consumer confidence and inflation expectations.
Meanwhile, the Thai stock market experienced a steady decline throughout the week, impacted by a confluence of factors.
Despite positive news on Thailand’s October export figures, which exceeded expectations, selling pressure emerged due to MSCI index rebalancing, effective November 25th.
"
[Source]: Steven, 2024, Draft
This article has been rewritten for US readers and to meet Google’s E-E-A-T standards.
Profit-taking in energy stocks following a decline in global oil prices due to eased tensions in the Middle East between Israel and Lebanon also contributed to the downward trend.
Additionally, anxieties surrounding the trade war, further fueled by President Trump’s announcements of increased tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China, weighed on investor sentiment.
"The Thai stock index continued to fall until the end of the week due to further profit taking in technology stocks,” analysts confirmed.
As a result, the SET Index closed at 1,427.54 points on Friday, November 29th, marking a 1.30% decrease compared to the previous week’s closing. The average daily transaction value stood at 40,056.75 million baht, a 3.05% decline from the previous week.
Looking ahead, Kasikorn Securities Company Limited anticipates that the Thai stock index will find support at 1,415 and 1,400 points, while resistance levels are expected at 1,435 and 1,445 points respectively.
Key factors to monitor include Thailand’s Consumer Price Index for November, foreign capital flows, and a series of crucial US economic data releases.
These include the ISM/PMI manufacturing and service indices, private sector employment data from ADP, November non-farm payroll and unemployment figures, October import and export figures, and weekly jobless claims.
Global economic developments, particularly the PMI index for the manufacturing and service sectors in November for China, Japan, and the Eurozone, as well as 3Q2024 GDP figures and October Producer Price Index for the Eurozone are also critical considerations.
2024-11-29 12:25:00
#MONEY #STOCK #MARKET #REVIEW #November
## Thai Baht Rebounds: Navigating Global uncertainty with A Piyaporn Thewprasit
**World Today News Exclusive Interview**
The Thai baht demonstrated resilience this week, recovering from early losses to close stronger against the US dollar despite ongoing global economic concerns. To decipher this volatile market movement and its implications, we spoke with **Ms. piyaporn Thewprasit**, a renowned economist and Director of Research at Kasikorn Research Center.
**World Today News (WTN):** Ms. thewprasit, the baht experienced a turbulent week, initially weakening against major currencies before rebounding. What are the key factors contributing to this volatility?
**Piyaporn Thewprasit (PT):** Several factors have been influencing the baht’s movement. Early-week weakness stemmed from heightened trade tensions between the US and China, fueled by comments from President Trump regarding potential new tariffs on Chinese goods. This triggered concerns about global economic stability, impacting regional currencies including the baht.
Though, the baht rebounded driven by a confluence of factors:
* **Gold Price Surge:** Rising global gold prices typically boost the thai baht due to Thailand’s significant gold exports.
* **Strengthening Yen:** the Japanese yen’s gratitude, driven by expectations of a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of japan in December, also supported the baht.
* **US Dollar Weakness:** A decline in US bond yields, fueled by inflation data in line with expectations, led to selling pressure on the US dollar, further supporting other currencies like the baht.
**WTN:** Foreign investors seem to be taking a cautious approach, selling Thai stocks but investing in Thai bonds. What explains this divergence?
**PT:** The current global uncertainty is making investors cautious about equity markets. However, the relatively stable thai economy and attractive bond yields are attracting foreign investment in the bond market.
**WTN:** Looking ahead, what are your expectations for the baht in the coming weeks?
**PT:** The baht’s movement will likely remain influenced by global economic developments, particularly US-China trade relations and potential shifts in US monetary policy. Continued strength in gold prices and the yen would be supportive factors for the baht.
We expect the baht to trade within a range of 34.20-34.60 against the US dollar in the coming weeks, remaining relatively stable despite global uncertainties.
**WTN:** Thank you for your insights,Ms. Thewprasit.Your analysis provides valuable clarity on the complex dynamics influencing the Thai baht.
**Note to Editor:**
* This interview can be further enriched by including a quote from Ms. Thewprasit about the potential impact of the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates in December.
* The quote from Ms. Thewprasit about the baht’s trade range can be placed within the article to enhance readability.
