/ world today news/ The Americans and their allies seek to contain China’s growing influence by threatening a major war. Australia, in particular, is about to get nuclear submarines – in violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. What is Beijing preparing for?
Nuclear deal
The main topic of the negotiations between the leaders of the USA, Australia and Great Britain at the naval base “Point Loma” in San Diego (California) was the further development of the trilateral alliance AUCUS. It was founded a year and a half ago to “maintain stability in the Indo-Pacific region”.
First of all, it was about the rearmament of Australia, which will receive technology to build nuclear submarines, Tomahawk missiles for its Hobart-class destroyers, missiles for F-18 and F-35 fighters, as well as land-based missile systems with range over 400 kilometers. In turn, Canberra promised to allocate money for the joint development of hypersonic and precision weapons.
Australian military will be trained at allied bases. American and British submarines will begin to enter Australian ports more frequently. From 2027 Washington and London will begin a regular rotation of submarines in Australian ports to speed up the training of local specialists.
At the beginning of 2030 the Americans will hand over to Canberra at least three Virginia ships with nuclear engines. Australians will get submarines of their own production in the early 2040s. Over the next 32 years, they will spend $245 billion building a nuclear fleet. So far, only Russia, Great Britain, India, China, USA and France have nuclear submarines.
Formally, AUKUS is not directed against any countries. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, however, announced that there have been more challenges for his country in the past 18 months. Among them are Russia’s special operation in Ukraine, China’s growing power and the “destabilizing” behavior of Iran and North Korea. Given that the military bloc operates in the Indo-Pacific region, Beijing should be the first to worry.
In particular, this opinion is shared by the “Sydney Morning Herald”, which announced at the end of the meeting that Washington and London will strengthen Australia’s defense against the threat from China. At the same time, US President Joe Biden said he was not worried about China’s negative attitude towards AUCUS. He has promised to call Xi Jinping on the occasion of his re-election to a third term, but so far there are no signs that Beijing is ready to open a dialogue as the confrontation escalates. Thus, according to the head of the press service of the State Department, Ned Price, the Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin tried several times to contact his Chinese counterpart, but he did not respond. It should be noted that the new head of the Chinese Ministry of Defense, Li Shanfu, is under sanctions of the United States since 2018. for the purchase of Russian Su-35 aircraft and S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems.
Meanwhile, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said the US, Britain and Australia are ignoring the concerns of the international community and are following the path of “mistakes and dangers”. In particular, Beijing believes that providing nuclear submarines to Australia could lead to nuclear proliferation, which would trigger an arms race as well as harm peace and stability in the region.
It is significant that the former Prime Minister of Australia from the Labor Party, Paul Keating, is of a similar opinion. According to him, creating a nuclear fleet is Canberra’s worst decision: up to 50 conventional submarines could be bought instead. The former head of government is generally against AUKUS. He is sure that the main fault of China is only in creating an economy comparable to the American one. And the US seeks to surround Beijing, and for this they use Australia, which has become a tool in foreign hands.
A new world
Meanwhile, AUCUS members deny violating the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, citing paragraph 14 of the comprehensive safeguards agreement between the IAEA and the Australian side. Thanks to it, marine reactors can be exempted from inspections. However, the situation has set a precedent that other countries will surely want to use to hide highly enriched uranium or plutonium from international scrutiny.
To minimize the risks, the IAEA secured Australia’s agreement to train its submariners in the US and UK. It will also not enrich spent nuclear fuel.
“A year and a half ago, China announced that the transfer of nuclear submarines to Australia would violate the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and this is no secret to anyone. However, the US does not care what the international community thinks, the main thing is to achieve the goal. AUKUS is necessary to limit China’s development. Washington is increasing its military pressure on Beijing,” says Pavel Kamennov, deputy head of the China Center for Economic and Social Research.
According to him, the Chinese are responding to American activity with the development of the Navy, including nuclear components. “In fact, Beijing has already entered an arms race,” notes the expert.
The professor from the University of the Peoples’ Friendship University Andrey Vinogradov is convinced that the USA does not want to go to war with China, but is creating the institutions that are necessary in the transition to a multipolar world. “They cannot be called completely confrontational, but they will counter China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region,” explains the Chinese expert.
At the same time, Vinogradov believes that China does not have many options for an answer. The arms race is more profitable for the Americans than for the Chinese, who have to solve the problem of modernizing the economy. “Beijing does not want to repeat the experience of the Soviet Union, but the United States puts it at a disadvantage. China can oppose AUCUS, if not with its own alliance, then at least with military-political cooperation with strong players. It is possible to understand with Moscow, but in the current situation there is a risk that this will harm,” the expert notes.
Either way, the US and its allies will continue to surround the Chinese with military blocs. And they will be forced to follow the foreign policy course they have followed since the early 1980s: representing the interests of developing countries and advocating peaceful conflict resolution. For now, Beijing has no other options, concludes Vinogradov.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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