Until Trump comes to power, the Russians will do everything they can to conquer as many territories as possible, said Colonel Markus Reisner. He expects to capture the Kurachowe cauldron.11/28/2024 | 17:15 minutes
Russia records further successes in southern Donbass. So it remains only a matter of time before the hard-fought city of Kurachowe falls.
Ukraine has failed to stabilize its defenses in the southern part of Donbass. Russia recently made several tactical breakthroughs south of Kurakhove. It has also advanced further north of the city.
Fighting is already underway in the eastern outskirts of the city, while Russian units are trying to encircle the city after breaking through at the village of Dalne.
Ukrainian forces are threatened with encirclement
The Ukrainian units south of the Russian wedge at Dalne are in an extremely vulnerable position.
Parts of the Ukrainian city of Kurakhove are in ruins after Russian bombardment.
Source: dpa
Unless Kiev can deploy significant reserves here very quickly, the Ukrainians will have to withdraw almost immediately from a number of small villages (Ilnivka, Elizavetivka, Romanivka, Gannivka, Uspenivka) to avoid encirclement.
Combined with the serious situation at Kurakhove, this means that Russia-attacked Ukraine is about to lose everything south of the Kurakhovsk water reservoir. The Sukhi Yaly River line could not be used as a defensive line because the Russians flanked it from the direction of Dalne.After Russian air strikes, more than a million Ukrainians are cut off from power – even in winter temperatures around freezing point. November 28, 2024 | 2:21 minutes
Russia’s next destinations still open
Once these areas fall – and even in the case of Kurakhove, the largest settlement in the region, this is only a matter of days, not weeks – the main question is how the Russians will advance.
One possibility is to push further west and encircle Velyka Novosilka, thereby flanking and destabilizing Ukrainian defenses not only in the remaining southern Donbass, but possibly also in the Zaporizhzhia region.
Another possibility is that after taking Kurakhove, Russia shifted most of its forces north and concentrated on the siege of Pokrovsk.
Dr. Christian Mölling …
Which: DGAP
… heads the “Europe’s Future” program for the Bertelsmann Foundation in Berlin. He has been researching and publishing on the topics of security and defense, armaments and technology, stabilization and crisis management for over 20 years. He regularly analyzes military developments in the Ukraine conflict for ZDFheute.
Dr. András Rácz …
Which: DGAP
… is an Associate Fellow in the Security and Defense Program of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) in Berlin. He researches and publishes on armed forces in Eastern Europe and Russia and hybrid warfare.
Russia wants to maintain the pace until Trump takes office
Regardless of which option they choose, it is clear that Moscow intends to maintain the current extremely high operational tempo at least until the new US administration under Donald Trump takes office, whatever the cost. Trump will move into the White House for the second time on January 20, 2025. Militarily, neither NATO nor the EU are on equal footing with the USA. If Donald Trump were to cancel US aid in the future, as announced, Ukraine would de facto be defenseless. 11/12/2024 | 8:50 minutes
Currently, the average daily losses of the Russian Armed Forces are about 1,500 soldiers killed and wounded, equivalent to almost two entire battalions. This is an extremely high loss rate that is unsustainable in the long term.
Russia wants as much space as possible by January 20th
In the short term, however, Moscow is prioritizing territorial gains over the sustainability of the war effort in order to maximize the size of the country it holds before January 20.
The Russian calculation is likely that once Trump tries to facilitate negotiations, the tempo of operations will slow down for a while anyway, allowing Russian forces to then rest and regroup.
At his press conference, Putin “bragged about the recent attacks on Ukraine” with “well-composed productions,” according to Russia correspondent Armin Coerper.11/28/2024 | 2:38 minutes
Not to prevent the Russian advance, just to slow it down
But this also means that in the next almost two months the current, extremely intense, attrition warfare will continue and Ukraine will lose more territory.
The question is whether the Ukrainian army will be able to prevent a Russian breakthrough on an operational scale, i.e. maintain its tactics of not concentrating on holding territory, but maintaining its forces as much as possible while at the same time to inflict maximum losses on Russians.
You can find current reports on Russia’s attack on Ukraine at any time in our live blog:
Russia attacks Ukraine
:Current news about the war in Ukraine
Since February 2022, Russia has been waging a war of aggression against Ukraine. Kyiv has launched a counteroffensive and fighting continues. News and background information in the ticker.
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