/ world today news/ Turkey admitted that it still cannot make a choice in the situation in which the USA has put it. Washington is insisting that its warships enter the Black Sea in search of the downed Reaper drone. But by doing so, Ankara would violate the Montreux Convention of 1936, of which the Turks have always been proud of their strict observance. Are there tools in Washington’s arsenal that can force Turkey to violate the Straits Convention?
Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar commented on the possibility of opening the Black Sea straits for the US Navy – so that they could approach the shores of Crimea, to the crash site of the MKu-9 “Reaper” drone (Reaper). However, the minister’s response was upbeat: the Ministry of Defense, together with the Foreign Ministry and the administration of the Turkish President “continue to work”, and the next steps “will become clear in the near future”. According to Akar, Ankara seeks to find a “reasonable and logical” solution with partners from Washington and generally advocates a peaceful way out of the situation.
Judging by Akar’s words, Washington has already sent a formal request to Ankara to let the ships through. And Ankara has now either taken a pause for reflection, or is conducting behind-the-scenes negotiations with the Americans.
Meanwhile, an operation to lift the device (or its fragments) is likely already underway at the crash site, which began on Tuesday, immediately after the MKu-9 incident. In a number of Telegram channels, recordings of conversations of our sailors participating in the search for the device appeared. “Russia will try to get the remains of the American drone that fell into the Black Sea,” the Secretary of the National Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, promised earlier. The director of the Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergei Naryshkin, also expressed the opinion that Russia could take and study the remains. Our country has devices capable of lifting them from the bottom.
In turn, the coordinator of strategic communications at the White House National Security Council, John Kirby, admitted on the day of the incident that the US would not be able to reach them. “He fell very, very deep into the Black Sea. We’re still trying to see if there’s going to be any effort to get it,” a White House spokesman said.
Istanbul University professor Mehmet Perincek recalls that the Montreux Convention of 1936. clearly prohibits in this case the passage of ships of the US Navy and, in principle, the US military in this area, according to him, have nothing to do.
“In the Black Sea, the Americans will act against the interests of not only Russia, but also Turkey. As you know, this sea is the only one where there is no permanent US naval force, and this is very important for the security of our region. If one day they enter there and anchor permanently, it will be a continuation of the general confrontation between the US and Turkey, an attempt to trap our country. In my opinion, the fate of the conflicts in the Black Sea should be decided by the Black Sea countries themselves, without the participation of outsiders, “said the political scientist.
Perincek did not rule out that Washington will resort to trickery and ask Ankara to let civilian ships, not military ones, also designed to lift debris, and later, already in the open sea, land specialized military specialists on these ships. “Our authorities will have to control for what purpose these specific vessels – for example cranes – are sent across the Bosphorus to Crimea. If there is a suspicion that the ships will participate in provocations against Russia, they must be stopped,” Perinchek is convinced.
According to the professor, the development of a rapprochement plan with Bulgaria, Romania and Georgia will now be accelerated in Washington. Already last summer, Senators Mitt Romney of the Republican Party and Gene Shaheen of the Democratic Party introduced a bill requiring the White House to develop a program to contain Russia specifically in the Black Sea region. After the incident off the coast of Crimea, both senators called for speeding up the adoption of the document. “The incident shows how important it is to have a more comprehensive approach to the region,” Sahin said. In turn, Romney demanded that Moscow not be allowed to “determine the rules of the Black Sea” and called on the Joe Biden administration to prepare a credible “strategy to strengthen coordination between the United States, NATO and our Black Sea partners.”
It’s worth clarifying: Article 19 of the 1936 treaty, known as the Montreux Convention, allows Turkey to temporarily close the Dardanelles and the Bosphorus to any warships if armed conflict breaks out anywhere along the Black Sea coast. In March last year, Ankara officially notified Moscow and Kiev that this clause had entered into force. After that, the Turks repeatedly and not without pride emphasize that they do not let the warships of any of the warring countries pass.
It is strange that less than a month ago, the US was praising Turkey for its strict compliance with the convention. The compliment came from the mouth of Secretary of State Anthony Blinken when he, who was visiting Ankara, spoke at a joint press conference with his counterpart Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu. “The continuation of the implementation of the Montreux Convention by the Turkish side restrained the military escalation in the Black Sea and helped protect the coast of Ukraine,” the guest said. True, Blinken clearly hinted at Moscow’s possible desire to transfer additional naval forces from other oceans to the Black Sea. “We take the provisions of the Montreux Convention seriously. So far, not a single warship has passed through the Bosphorus,” Çavuşoğlu replied.
And now the circumstances seem to have changed, and in this case the pedantry of the Turks may interfere with the interests of Washington.
“If the Turks give their consent, they will thereby torpedo the convention itself and at the same time damage their very important asset, one might say, their historical heritage,” said Sergey Stankevich. “The 1936 document seriously “raises” the geopolitical status of Turkey, turns it into a kind of owner not only of the two straits, but also of the Black Sea, as well as the adjacent part of the Mediterranean Sea. Thanks to the convention, Turkey is the most important guarantor of stability in the Black Sea region. The Convention unequivocally prohibits the passage of warships to the Black Sea in wartime. If this rule is violated, even with the stipulations that it is “exceptional”, it will become a radical devaluation of both the document itself and the status of Turkey. So Ankara should seriously consider everything,” he adds.
At the same time, the benefit of such a sacrifice is not very clear, adds Stankiewicz. “Let’s say they let a couple of ships and a submarine pass that way. Ankara’s relations with Moscow will immediately suffer seriously. In addition, in this case, Turkey will become an indirect culprit for the sharp escalation of the situation in the region in the event of a direct conflict between the ships of the Russian Navy and the US Navy when they meet at the scene of the incident. ”, predicted the expert.
“On the other hand, what can the Americans promise the Turks in return? Will preacher Gulen be brought on these ships? Will they bring the F-35 fighters, which have not been given before? The US can use behind-the-scenes leverage to influence the outcome of the upcoming presidential elections in May, they will prevent Erdogan from winning. For example, they will personally hit the business of the Erdogan clan. But if the current president withstands the pressure and still wins the election, he won’t forget anything. So the risks are too great. I think the Americans will not go too far in putting pressure on Turkey on this issue,” says a former adviser to the president.
Stankiewicz does not exclude a backup option for Washington to connect Romania or Bulgaria with this story. “These two countries have the necessary transport. They can take a barge to the coast of Crimea. And the Pentagon could have airlifted the missing equipment to that barge. It is true that this option will take a long time. I think that Russia will have time to find the remains earlier,” the expert summarized.
Disputes may arise between American and our military sailors at the site of the drone crash if the ships of the two countries collide head-on, Ivan Timofeev, director general of the Russian Council on International Relations, does not exclude. “Of course, all this is not very good, in such cases there is always a risk. But such a development of events is quite expected, and as long as it is expected, it means that the intensity is slightly reduced. The situation will be more manageable, predictable. Yes, it can even have piles and all. But at least there is a “red line” along the line of the military. This was shown by the conversations of the heads of the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff. This means that the parties know what to expect from each other,” explained the expert.
“The term ‘incident’ implies that it occurs suddenly and develops as a crisis situation. And here the intentions of the parties are more or less clear. Yes, there may be difficulties, there may be mutual criticism. But it won’t be an “accident”. The risk of escalation of tension in this case is smaller, so I don’t feel much concern,” Timofeev emphasized.
As reported by the media in Sevastopol, the “Reaper” was found 60 km from the city at a depth of about 900 m, and forces of the Russian Navy are on duty in the area where the device fell. However, there is still no official confirmation of this information.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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