After the ceasefire​​​​ in Lebanon, Hamas also wants to talk, but a truce does not seem imminent

• Mineke Lautenbag

  Editor from abroad

Now that a ceasefire is in place in Lebanon, Hamas says it is also willing to make a “real deal” with Israel, although talks have been stalled for months. The peace in Lebanon allows Israel to fully focus on the fight in Gaza again. “That could encourage Hamas to be more accommodating,” said Peter Malcontent, assistant professor of international relations at Utrecht University.

Additionally, Hamas may be more likely to negotiate as support for a peace deal increases among the Palestinian population. Joas Wagemakers, Islamologist and expert on Hamas, sees this. “A lot of “Gazans in principle support Hamas’ armed struggle against Israel, but they want the war to end,” says Wagemakers.

But it is not clear that an agreement between Hamas and Israel can be concluded quickly, since both parties want something completely different. Hamas wants to continue playing a role in Gaza after the war, but Israel has indicated that it does not fully agree with such a role for the terrorist group.

Prime Minister Netanyahu said this summer that he wants to destroy Hamas completely before agreeing to peace in Gaza. When he visited Gaza recently, he also said that Israel would now attack the administrative branch there as well as the military branch. “It is too easy to say: now that there is an agreement in Lebanon, there will be an agreement in Gaza as well,” says Malcontent.

Salarians also believe that it is difficult to make an agreement between Israel and Hamas. “Hamas has only one trump card, and that is the enemies. If they give that up, they will have nothing left.” If Hamas agreed to a temporary ceasefire with all hostages released, there would be nothing to stop Israel from destroying Hamas afterwards.

Another obstacle to negotiations is that it is not clear who is the leader of Hamas. Former Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was ousted last July and his successor Yahya Sinwar in October. In addition to a militant branch, Hamas also has an administrative branch. It is currently unclear where his leadership lies.

They stayed in Qatar, but that country asked the leaders of Hamas to leave the country in early November. The political bureau had been based there since 2012. Hamas keeps its current location secret for fear of further meltdowns.

Little remains of the clear leadership structure in Gaza. Hamas, which operated an authoritarian and repressive regime, provided social, economic and security government services. Malcontent: “Now there is complete anarchy.” This is because the minimum amount of humanitarian aid that Israel allows into Gaza shows this.

Ultimately, the leaders of the various branches within Hamas have a say in the decision-making process regarding a possible ceasefire. Not only does the political office abroad decide what conditions Hamas sets for this, but also the leadership in prison, in the West Bank and in Gaza, has influence. Wagemakers explained. “Hamas is not an organization led by one leader, and never has been. “

There is also a lack of leadership within the military branch. “Hamas has suffered heavy blows and lost thousands of fighters,” said Wagemakers. In August, Israel said Israeli forces had killed more than 17,000 fighters, out of Hamas’ reported with 30,000 fighters before the war. The question is whether there are so many independent non-profit organizations ACLED they collected data from IDF reports and counted 8,500 fighters killed.

Hamas is no longer capable of large-scale attacks, so it has changed its methods. The militants operate as small cells throughout Gaza, converting Israeli unexploded ordnance into weapons to fight the Israeli army.

The fighting is mainly taking place in the north, around the Netzarim corridor and in the south near Rafah, according to data from the Institute for the Study of War, an independent American think tank.

Although Hamas has suffered heavy blows and lack of leadership, it has not yet been defeated. The complete destruction of Hamas that Israel envisions is almost impossible. “As a result of the work that has been going on for decades and the ongoing conflict with violence, Hamas will continue to gain new members,” says Wagemakers.

Malcontent shares this analysis: “Even if Israel were to succeed in killing the last Hamas fighter, a new type of Hamas would emerge. The Hamas ideology will not go away. disappear forever.”