Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – Information from the United States (USA) shows a prediction of a future Russian nuclear attack. They said a nuclear attack was impossible.
Launch ReutersOn Thursday (28/11/2024), five sources familiar with the matter said that the US decision to allow Ukraine to use its weapons to attack Moscow would not increase the risk of a nuclear attack . Despite aggressive statements from Putin.
They were two senior officers, a lawmaker and two congressional aides who received information about the case. However, Russia is likely to expand its sabotage campaign against European targets to increase pressure on the West to support Kyiv.
This information assessment was carried out over the past seven months. That view is said to have not changed, anonymous sources said, after President Joe Biden changed the US stance this month on guns.
“The assessment is consistent: ATACM will not change Russia’s nuclear calculations,” said a congressional aide briefed on the information, referring to American missiles with a range of up to 190 miles (306 km).
One in five US officials said despite Washington’s assessment that Russia would not seek to increase its nuclear forces. Russia will simply try to match what it sees as an increase in US power, adding new missiles as part of that effort.
In detail, US officials said that information during this period had helped guide a debate within the Biden administration about whether easing the use of American weapons was worth the risk of angering Putin. Officials initially resisted the move, citing concerns about the rise of power and uncertainty about how Putin would react.
But some officials, including the White House, the Pentagon and the State Department, fear deadly retaliation against US military and diplomatic personnel as well as attacks on NATO allies, and others are particularly concerned about nuclear escalation. However, Biden changed his mind because of North Korea’s entry into the war before the US presidential election.
(chief/boss)
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How does the US intelligence community’s assessment of Russia’s nuclear posture inform the Biden administration’s decisions regarding military aid to Ukraine?
## US Intel: Russia Unlikely to Use Nukes Even with Longer-Range Ukrainian Strikes
**Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia -**
Despite growing tensions and escalating rhetoric from Moscow, US intelligence officials assert that the risk of a Russian nuclear attack remains low **even if Ukraine utilizes US-supplied weapons to strike targets within Russia.** This assessment, based on information gathered over the past seven months, has not changed despite recent shifts in US policy, according to five sources familiar with the matter.
The sources, including two senior military officers, a lawmaker, and two congressional aides, emphasized that US intelligence believes Russia’s nuclear posture is unlikely to change significantly even with the introduction of longer-range missiles like the ATACM, which boasts a range of up to 306 kilometers (190 miles).
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A congressional aide, speaking on condition of anonymity, stated, “The assessment is consistent: ATACM will not change Russia’s nuclear calculations.”
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While the US maintains that nuclear escalation is improbable, officials acknowledge that Russia will likely respond to the increased military capability of Ukraine by bolstering its own missile arsenal.
This assessment has been crucial in shaping the Biden administration’s decision-making process regarding the provision of military aid to Ukraine. Initially, some officials expressed reservations about providing weapons that could be used to strike Russian territory, citing concerns about potential escalation and retaliation against US interests.
However, concerns about North Korea’s involvement in the conflict and the potential threat it posed to US allies, influenced President Biden’s final decision to authorize the transfer of longer-range weapons.
**While the US sees nuclear use as unlikely, it remains vigilant about Russia’s potential for expanding its sabotage campaign against European targets as a form of pressure on Western support for Ukraine.** The Biden administration continues to closely monitor the situation and adjust its strategy accordingly.
**(chief/boss)**
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