Large areas of Australia are at increased risk of bushfires over the summer, according to the latest outlook released by the national council for fire and emergency services.
The Australasian Fire And Emergency Services Authorities Council (Afac) has forecast increased bushfire risk for most of western Victoria, large parts of Western Australia’s south-eastern coastline and central west and much of the Northern Territory interior.
In Victoria, greater Melbourne, the Mornington Peninsula and parts of the state’s northeast are also at increased risk.
The risk is also heightened in central northern and central southern New South Wales, and the lower coastal southeast and lower Eyre Peninsula of South Australia.
Rainfall across southern Australian was below average into spring, and as a result, soil moisture heading into summer is below average across much of the southern and eastern parts of the country.
Mean temperatures for April to October were the third highest on record since 1910.
The Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for Summer 2024 shows an increased risk of fire for large areas of Australia. Illustration: AFAC
Victoria’s emergency management commissioner, Rick Nugent, said the bushfire season in Victoria had already started. “We’ve had over 150 grass and scrub fires so far this … season and two major fires,” he said at a press conference on Thursday.
“A dry autumn and winter and … the hottest winter on record with maximum temperatures for Victoria has resulted in higher fuel loads and dryer conditions which will make it easier for fires to start and to run.”
Through winter, Victoria’s mean maximum temperature was a record 14.34C, which was 1.31C above the 30-year average from 1961 to 1990.
Keris Arndt, a meteorologist at the Bureau of Meteorology said it had been an exceptionally dry, exceptionally warm winter in the state. “We’re expecting that heat trend to continue over the next few weeks and as we move into summer, with the indications very strong that we’re heading towards a warm summer, with temperatures forecast during the daytime and the night-time … to be above average to well above average.”
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Arndt said that Victoria was expected to have a wetter than average December, but “we’re coming off the back of a very dry past 18 months. That’s going to take a long while to replenish our catchments.
“All Victorians and many Australians need to prepare for multi-hazard events, whether it be bushfire, whether it be storm associated with flash flooding, and potentially riverine flooding if we get extensive rainfall over an extended period of time.”
Afac encouraged people to be vigilant even in areas with normal risk of fires, as “catastrophic fires can still occur during normal bushfire seasons”.
Afac chief executive, Rob Webb, said communities should prepare and implement bushfire plans. “The dry winter and spring period across southern Australia mean the landscape is well primed for bushfires,” he said in a statement. “We hope the rains come but it makes sense to plan as if they don’t.”
“Sit down with your family, work out your plans,” Nugent said. “Know how you’re going to react and respond, and at different times.”
**How are the combined effects of record-breaking temperatures, below-average rainfall, and potential El Niño events contributing to the heightened bushfire risk across Australia, and what specific areas are most vulnerable?**
## World Today News: Australia Faces Heightened Bushfire Risk
**Guests:**
* **Rick Nugent:** Victoria’s Emergency Management Commissioner
* **Keris Arndt:** Meteorologist at the Bureau of Meteorology
**Introduction**
Welcome to World Today News. Today, we’re delving into the concerning outlook for the upcoming Australian summer, with large areas of the country facing an increased risk of bushfires. We are joined by two experts who will shed light on the factors driving this risk and what steps Australians can take to prepare.
**Section 1: Understanding the Risk**
* **Host:** Mr. Nugent, the Australasian Fire and Emergency Services Authorities Council has issued a stark warning, forecasting an increased bushfire risk for substantial portions of Australia. Can you elaborate on the specific regions most affected and the factors contributing to this heightened risk?
* **Host:** Ms. Arndt, the article mentions record-breaking temperatures and below-average rainfall. Could you elaborate on the meteorological conditions that have led to these dry conditions and how they contribute to the increased fire risk?
**Section 2: The Impact of Climate Change**
* **Host:** Many experts link the extreme weather patterns we are seeing to climate change. Do you believe climate change is playing a significant role in the current situation?
* **Host:** Mr. Nugent, how are emergency services adapting their strategies in light of these changing patterns and the potential for more frequent and intense bushfire seasons?
**Section 3: Individual Preparedness and Community Resilience**
* **Host:** Ms. Arndt, you mentioned the importance of preparing for multi-hazard events. What are some practical steps individuals can take to prepare their homes and families for potential bushfires and other extreme weather events?
* **Host:** Mr. Nugent, what resources are available to Australians wanting to learn more about bushfire safety and develop personalized plans? What message do you have for communities and individuals in high-risk areas?
**Section 4: Looking Ahead**
* **Host:** What are your biggest concerns for the upcoming summer in terms of bushfire risk?
* **Host:** What message of hope or reassurance would you offer to Australians facing this challenging outlook?
**Closing**
Thank you, Mr. Nugent and Ms. Arndt, for providing such valuable insights. We encourage our viewers to take heed of their advice and stay informed about the risks and prepare accordingly. For more information on bushfire safety and resources, please visit the websites of your local fire services and the Bureau of Meteorology.
