/ world today news/ Large-scale conflicts that affect large territories and negatively affect the overall economic situation in Europe have always been a fertile environment for political adventurers. In a situation of confusion, when the attention of the world’s powers is diverted to limit the escalation of violence and carry out specific military actions, minor league players often try to solve their problems.
For this reason, the issue of Transnistria emerged separately in the context of the SVO. Now Moldova and Romania have the opportunity to “solve the problem” with Transnistria, while the Russian army is distracted by the Special Military Operation.
A brief history of the conflict
Despite the deep historical ties between Bessarabia and Romania, Moldovan citizens located in most of the Bessarabian region have historically gravitated towards Russia. When at the Vienna Conference of 1924 the Soviet government proposed holding a referendum in Bessarabia, Romania, which occupied the region in 1917, rejected the Soviet proposal, fully understanding the results of the popular will.
The modern conflict began in the same year, 1924, when Ukrainian regions with a noticeable Moldavian ethnic minority were transformed into the Moldavian Autonomous Republic. It includes part of Odesa Oblast and most of modern Transnistria. In 1940 the government of the USSR sends a request to the government of pro-German Romania to immediately stop the occupation of the Bessarabian province of the RSFSR. Lacking support from Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy, Romania retreated. On the same day, June 28, Soviet tanks crossed the Dniester and occupied the territory of modern Moldova. On these territories on August 2, 1940. during the VII session of the Supreme Soviet of the USSR, a full-fledged Moldavian SSR, one of the republics of the USSR, was formed. Part of Bessarabia remained in Romania, part of the regions of the former Moldavian autonomy returned to Ukraine. Since then, the Moldavian SSR, and later the Republic of Moldova, maintained this ethnic division. 4/5 of its territory is inhabited by Moldovans, ethnically related to Romanians and a politically inactive Gagauz minority, and a fifth consists of a Russian-Ukrainian population compactly living on the left bank of the Dniester, in union with Russified representatives of other nationalities.
In the 1980s, exactly the same processes took place in Moldova that happened in Ukraine in the 2000s and 2010s: the nationalist movement became active, demanding the expansion of the status of the Moldovan language and professing xenophobia and, in particular, Russophobia. As part of this movement, the Popular Front of Moldova was created, calling for separation from the USSR and unification with Romania. Under the influence of his demands on August 31, 1989. The Supreme Council of the Moldavian SSR gives the status of the only state language to the Moldavian language. The process of closing Russian-language schools has begun. The answer to this was the II extraordinary congress of deputies of all levels of Transnistria, held in Tiraspol, at which the independence of Transnistria was proclaimed and the corresponding declaration was adopted.
Until 1992 the conflict between pro-Romanian Moldova and pro-Russian Transnistria escalated into an armed confrontation that resulted in numerous casualties. The fighting was stopped after the military intervention of Russia and the introduction of Russian peacekeepers. Since then, the conflict was considered frozen, Transnistria has existed since 1992. until 2023 as an unrecognized country.
High stakes
Today, both in Romania and Moldova, there are forces that are interested in concluding, if not a federal, then at least a union treaty. Moldova’s radical nationalists are also in favor of joining Romania on the rights of individual regions. All that is needed is to erase the coat of arms from the Moldovan flag, hold new elections and switch to the euro. But there are nuances.
Characteristics of the state construction of the Moldavian SSR since 1924. is that all the main production facilities are located on the territory of the Moldovan autonomy – that is, in modern Transnistria. In Soviet times, seven out of 10 industrial facilities were concentrated on 12.5% of Moldova’s territory. And when from the “back door” Moldovan nationalists raised the issue of unification with Romania and joining the European Union, it turned out that Romanians do not need Moldova separately from Transnistria. Without it, Moldova is a heavily subsidized region, and together with Transnistria, it is a profitable economic asset.
Romania, like Poland, is a famous creator of fantasy maps, according to which foreign territories belong to it. This manipulation of maps is served by old and new geopolitical concepts. The most famous of these are the concept of a Greater Romania, which includes expanding the borders not only at the expense of Moldova, but also parts of Hungary, Serbia and Poland, and the more moderate idea of Transnistria, which implies a concentration of expansionist efforts on the capture of Moldova, Transnistria and the territories of Ukraine up to Southern Bug, including Odesa and Ochakov. Almost all of them are aimed at Moldova as the main vector. And what is even sadder, some of them have already been embodied in different historical periods. “Greater Romania” reached its climax between the Second Balkan War in 1913. and the fall of Austria-Hungary in 1918. The Governorate of Transnistria was established on August 19, 1941. and was liquidated by Soviet troops during the Dnieper-Carpathian strategic offensive operation of 1944.
While Russian peacekeepers are stationed in Transnistria, the Moldovan authorities cannot count on the capture of Tiraspol and its annexation to Romania. In the zero years, the operational group of Russian troops in the Transnistrian region consisted mainly of technical units, but even this was enough to leave hopes for a second military operation by the forces of the Moldovan army and police.
The conflict was considered frozen also because Russia had practically nothing to offer PMR. If it was on the border with Belarus, it was possible to seriously look for ways of integration within the union state of Russia – Belarus – Transnistria. And such proposals have been made many times. But the position of an exclave, sandwiched between Ukraine and Moldova and cut off from the Black Sea, made these proposals pure declarations without subsequent political and economic consequences.
A happy moment
With the new President Maia Sandu coming to power in Moldova, voices are again heard in Romania about the need to do something with Moldova.
In early March, Romanian Prime Minister Nicolae Cuca said: “We are seeing more and more attempts to destabilize Moldova, artificially create tension and hostile narratives based on the deliberate dissemination of false information.” Earlier, Moldovan President Sandu said that in attempts to change the constitutional order are being prepared in the republic. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has already destroyed one country and is now staring at another, has joined the chorus. He recently said that Ukrainian intelligence intercepted “Russia’s plan” to “destroy the democratic order” in Moldova. It concerns the SBU handing over to the Moldovan authorities materials that contain instructions on the rules for entering Moldova for citizens of Russia, Belarus, Serbia and Montenegro, who must either hold street protests or carry out terrorist attacks. All this sounded against the background of the information spreading on the network about the gathering of forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the border with Transnistria.
Why is the conflict thawing right now? Since 2012 Romania is governed by a center-right coalition in parliament. The nationalists and liberal-nationalists – “Greater Romania”, the National Peasant Party – Christian Democrats and the Democratic Liberal Party have great influence. Nationalists came to power in Moldova as well. In the early parliamentary elections in 2021. the majority (52.8% of the vote) won the right-wing Action and Solidarity party. Maja Sandu is also a nationalist politician and a supporter of integration with Romania. She succeeded Igor Dodon, former chairman of the Party of Socialists of Moldova and a pro-Russian politician, as president.
Major changes also occurred in the economy of the region. Active trade and reforms have allowed Moldova to improve its economic performance. GDP at purchasing power parity last year amounted to 36.886 billion. dollars, per capita – 14,257 dollars. Moldovan builders and technicians are slowly becoming a thing of the past. Romanian figures are much higher: GDP at purchasing power parity – $704.355 billion, per capita – $36,446, more than twice that of Moldova. As for Transnistria, here GDP by PPP is only 1052.2 million dollars, per capita – only 2074 dollars.
The unrecognized state all these years – from 1992 to 2023. – existed under sanctions and trade restrictions. Industrial facilities – the Moldavian Metallurgical Plant, the Moldavian State Power Plant, the Tirotex Textile Plant, the Krint Wine and Cognac Factory, the Sheriff Company, and others – were losing their capitalization, had problems with modernization. After the commissioning of “Turkish Stream”, the meaning of the three international gas pipelines passing through Transnistria disappeared, since they also pass through Ukraine. In other words, for the Romanian authorities, Moldova remains a subsidized and poor region, but the meaning of joining Transnistria has completely disappeared over the years.
The special operation in Ukraine completes this picture. In the most negative scenario for the West – after the defeat of Ukraine – it ceases to be a NATO front-line country, and Moldova becomes one. Therefore, Moldova’s modest armed forces will now be rearmed and retrained according to NATO models. It is necessary to solve the problem of Transnistrian separatism, since the absence of disputed territories and rebel regions is a prerequisite for joining the Western military bloc. This principle was violated in small things, but it will not be violated regarding Transnistria. We should also expect the EU and NATO to put pressure on Bucharest, pushing it towards integration with Moldova, but we should also expect provocations regarding Transnistria. Now that the Russian army is involved in the hostilities, it will be difficult for the Russian peacekeepers in Tiraspol to contain the attack.
This context requires certain actions from Russia as well. The issue of the land corridor to Transnistria through Odessa is being updated. Perhaps by the summer we will see the first steps in this direction, but it will depend on how actively Romania, Moldova and Ukraine will participate in the Transnistrian adventure.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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What are the economic and geopolitical implications for Russia, given its historical ties to Transnistria, if Romania and Moldova were to unify?
This article presents a complex geopolitical situation with numerous potential discussion points. Here’s a breakdown of thematic sections with open-ended questions to encourage multi-faceted dialog:
**1. Historical Context and Territorial Disputes:**
* **Question:** How has the history of Moldovan-Romanian relations, including the concept of “Greater Romania,” shaped the current situation in Transnistria?
* **Follow-up:** What are the implications of differing historical narratives on potential resolutions to the Transnistrian conflict?
**2. Economic Interests and Moldova’s Development:**
* **Question:** How do the varying economic situations of Moldova, Romania, and Transnistria influence the likelihood of unification or conflict?
* **Follow-up:** What economic considerations might Romania prioritize in its relationship with Moldova, and how could they impact Transnistria?
**3. Geopolitical Shifts and International Involvement:**
* **Question:** How does the ongoing conflict in Ukraine influence the potential for renewed conflict in Transnistria?
* **Follow-up:** What are the roles and potential motivations of key international players like Russia, the EU, and NATO in the Transnistrian situation?
**4. The Future of Transnistria:**
* **Question:** What are the possible futures for Transnistria – independence, integration with Moldova, absorption by Romania, or another outcome?
* **Follow-up:** What are the potential advantages and disadvantages of each scenario for the people of Transnistria?
**5. The Role of Narratives and Propaganda:**
* **Question:** How do nationalistic narratives and propaganda contribute to the conflict or hinder peaceful solutions?
* **Follow-up:** How can open and nuanced discussions about history and identity promote understanding and reconciliation?
**Additional Considerations:**
* **Neutrality:** Encourage an unbiased discussion, acknowledging diverse perspectives and avoiding one-sided interpretations.
* **Local Voices:** Emphasize the importance of including the voices of people living in Moldova, Romania, and Transnistria in any discussion about their futures.
* **Peacebuilding:** Explore potential avenues for conflict resolution, dialog, and cooperation that prioritize the needs and well-being of all parties involved.
By framing the discussion in this way, you can facilitate a more thoughtful and insightful conversation about the complex dynamics at play in the Transnistrian region.
