London. Global oil supply will exceed demand in 2025, even if the OPEC+ cuts are maintained, since the increase in pumping from the United States and other external producers will overcome the slackness of demand, the International Oil Agency indicated this Thursday. Energy (AIE).
The prospect of an oversupply of more than one million barrels per day (bpd) – equivalent to more than one percent of global production – is a headwind for OPEC+, made up of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. and allies like Russia, in its plan to start increasing pumping.
Oil demand growth has been weaker than expected this year, largely due to China. After driving rising crude consumption for years, economic challenges and the shift toward electric vehicles are tempering growth prospects in the world’s second-largest consumer.
“China’s marked slowdown has been the main drag on demand,” the IEA said in its monthly report. “The rapid deployment of clean energy technologies is also increasingly displacing oil in transportation and electricity generation, adding downward pressure to other otherwise weak demand drivers.”
The agency, based in Paris, maintained its oil demand growth forecast for 2025 at 990 thousand bpd. At the same time, it foresees that countries outside OPEC+ will increase supply by 1.5 million bpd, driven by the United States, Canada, Guyana and Argentina, above the growth rate of demand.
OPEC on Tuesday cut its global oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next, highlighting weakness in China, India and other regions, marking the fourth consecutive downward revision of the group’s 2024 outlook. producer.
Next year’s surplus, according to IEA forecasts, could make it difficult for OPEC+ to withdraw production, which again postponed this month a plan to begin easing production cuts amid the fall in prices.
“Our current balance sheets suggest that, even if OPEC+ cuts are maintained, global supply will exceed demand by more than a million bpd next year,” the IEA stated.
Prices are pressured by the accumulation of reserves in the US and concern about excess supply
Oil prices managed to close a volatile session with slight increases, as the increase in crude inventories in the United States increased concerns about oversupply, while the rise of the dollar to a one-year high increased relative fears to the demand.
Brent closed up 32 cents at $72.56 a barrel; The US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) added 27 cents to $68.70 and the Mexican export mix also gained 27 cents, closing at $64.07 a barrel.
U.S. crude oil inventories rose 2.1 million barrels last week, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), well above analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 750,000-barrel increase. .
However, U.S. gasoline stocks unexpectedly fell last week to their lowest level in two years due to increased demand, the EIA said.
The dollar hit one-year highs, boosted by rising Treasury yields and Donald Trump’s US election victory. A stronger greenback makes dollar-denominated oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, which can reduce demand.
!function(f,b,e,v,n,t,s)
{if(f.fbq)return;n=f.fbq=function(){n.callMethod?
n.callMethod.apply(n,arguments):n.queue.push(arguments)};
if(!f._fbq)f._fbq=n;n.push=n;n.loaded=!0;n.version=’2.0′;
n.queue=[];t=b.createElement(e);t.async=!0;
t.src=v;s=b.getElementsByTagName(e)[0];
s.parentNode.insertBefore(t,s)}(window, document,’script’,
‘
fbq(‘init’, ‘133913093805922’);
fbq(‘track’, ‘PageView’);
fbq(‘track’, ‘Contact’);
fbq(‘track’, ‘Donate’);
fbq(‘track’, ‘FindLocation’);
fbq(‘track’, ‘Lead’);
fbq(‘track’, ‘Search’);
fbq(‘track’, ‘Subscribe’, {value: ‘0.00’, currency: ‘MXN’, predicted_ltv: ‘0.00’});
fbq(‘track’, ‘ViewContent’);
#International #Energy #Agency #predicts #supply #demand #oil
–
**How might the IEA’s prediction of a global oil surplus in 2025 influence the investment decisions of major oil companies, particularly regarding exploration and production of new oil fields?**
## World Today News Interview: Oil Supply and Demand in 2025
**Introduction**
Welcome to World Today News! Today we’re diving deep into the complex world of global oil markets with two esteemed guests. Joining us are [Guest 1 Name and Credentials], and [Guest 2 Name and Credentials]. This discussion is particularly timely following the recent report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasting a potential global oil surplus in 2025.
**Section 1: The IEA Predictions and Global Demand**
* **Interviewer:** The IEA report paints a picture of potential oversupply in the global oil market by 2025. Can you both elaborate on the factors driving this prediction? What are the key elements influencing the IEA’s outlook on demand growth, particularly the role of China?
* **Guest 1:** _[Guest 1 response focusing on IEA analysis, demand growth drivers, China’s role]_
* **Guest 2:** _[Guest 2 response, potentially offering a contrasting perspective or highlighting additional factors]_
**Section 2: OPEC+ Strategy and the Impact of Non-OPEC Producers**
* **Interviewer:**
Given the IEA’s projections, how do you see OPEC+ likely responding? How might this predicted surplus impact their current strategy of production cuts and future plans to ease these cuts?
* **Guest 1:** _[Guest 1 response discussing OPEC+ strategy, considering geopolitical factors and potential challenges]_
* **Guest 2:** _[Guest 2 response, potentially examining alternative scenarios or the role of other producers like the US]_
**Section 3: The Shifting Energy Landscape and the Long-Term Outlook**
* **Interviewer:**
The article highlights a significant shift towards cleaner energy technologies.
How do you see this trend impacting the oil market in the long term?
Will we see a continued reliance on fossil fuels or are we on the cusp of a more sustainable energy future?
* **Guest 1:** _[Guest 1 response addressing the transition to clean energy and its implications for the oil industry]_
* **Guest 2:** _[Guest 2 response offering a broader perspective on the energy landscape and realistic timelines for change]_
**Section 4: Volatility and Future Price Fluctuations**
* **Interviewer:**
Oil prices have been subject to significant volatility recently, influenced by factors like US inventory levels and the strength of the dollar. What are your predictions for future price movements in light of the projected surplus and the broader economic context?
* **Guest 1:** _[Guest 1 response on oil price forecasts, factoring in potentially contradictory forces]_
* **Guest 2:** _[Guest 2 response, potentially offering a contrasting view or highlighting additional market dynamics]_
**Conclusion**
* **Interviewer:**
Thank you both for this insightful discussion. The future of the oil market appears complex and multifaceted. As we navigate this evolving landscape, your perspectives help us understand the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.
We encourage our viewers to continue following this crucial conversation. Thank you for joining us on World Today News!
