the essentials The solemn vote on the Social Security budget, scheduled for November 26, could lead to the fall of the Barnier government. In this case, France would plunge into “economic, budgetary and political chaos”, analyzes Toulouse political scientist Dorian Dreuil, expert associated with the Jean-Jaurès Foundation.
The motion of censure of the oppositions is ready and will most certainly be activated in the event of recourse to 49.3. What would happen if the Barnier government fell?
If the motion of censure is adopted, that is to say if it obtains the majority of votes of the deputies, the Barnier government will have to resign, and the President of the Republic will be forced to accept this resignation. However, this situation would not trigger new legislative elections, because the president cannot dissolve the National Assembly less than a year after a previous dissolution. We would therefore find ourselves in a psychodrama similar to that of this summer, marked by a political crisis: the head of state would be faced with the difficult task of appointing a new Prime Minister capable of constituting a government.
Furthermore, this crisis would also pose problems for the left, particularly regarding the bloc’s ability to agree on a common candidacy. On the budgetary level, the fall of the government and the possible rejection of the finance bill would plunge the country into an impasse: how to form a new executive to present a budget? In short, this situation would lead to economic, budgetary and political chaos, from which neither party would emerge strengthened.
Dorian Dreuil, political scientist and expert associated with the Jean Jaurès Foundation. DDM – VALENTINE CHAPUIS
Edouard Philippe rightly mentioned the risk of a “financial crisis” in the event of government censorship. Do you share his fears?
This is a relevant analysis, particularly given the increase in social plans and the growing difficulties of businesses. The economic world is, by nature, very sensitive to political instability. It is not so much the political alternation that worries us, but the prolonged instability, which could cause major shocks. A new institutional impasse, following this summer’s political crisis, would bring us closer to a real regime crisis.
In this configuration, do early legislative elections become inevitable if a year has passed since the last dissolution?
It’s entirely possible. Emmanuel Macron could dissolve the Assembly again in the hope of regaining a majority, even if this seems more than complicated.
In the event of recourse to 49.3, can the left bloc and the National Rally vote together on a motion of censure?
All attention is clearly focused on the side of the RN, which is in a delicate position since it oscillates between two contradictory imperatives. On the one hand, the party seeks to continue its strategy of normalization and respect for institutions, which would encourage it not to vote in favor of a motion of censure. On the other hand, a growing part of his electorate expects him to help bring down the Barnier government. This duality places the RN in a complex situation, where each decision can have significant repercussions.
You talk about “institutional chaos”, which is a strong term. How did we get there?
In recent years, and especially in recent months, the perception of the Fifth Republic has become blurred. We are witnessing a mixture between a very presidentialist interpretation and a more parliamentary vision of our regime. To avoid this chaos, it would be desirable to return to the founding principles of the Fifth Republic, which clearly distinguish the role of presiding from that of governing. These are two very distinct functions. What is certain is that if our institutions remain solid, the use that is made of them today can weaken them.
Here are two PAA related questions based on the provided text:
## World Today News – Exclusive Interview: The Potential Fall of the Barnier Government
**Welcome to World Today News. Today, we’re joined by two experts to discuss the upcoming vote on the Social Security budget and its potential ramifications. Our guests are Dr. Sophie Rousseau, a constitutional lawyer at the Sorbonne University, and Monsieur Pierre Dubois, a prominent political commentator and author.**
**Section 1: The Threat of a No-Confidence Vote**
**Editor:** The vote on the Social Security budget is scheduled for November 26th. Dr. Rousseau, can you explain the significance of a potential motion of censure by the opposition, and what it would mean if it were successful?
**Dr. Rousseau:** Certainly. A motion of censure is a powerful tool the opposition can use to express their disapproval of the government’s policies. If successful, it would force the Barnier government to resign, plunging France into a political crisis.
**Editor:** Monsieur Dubois, the article mentions potential “economic, budgetary, and political chaos” if the government falls. Can you elaborate on what these consequences might be?
**M. Dubois:** The potential implications are indeed serious. A newly appointed Prime Minister might struggle to form a stable government, especially with the current political climate. The rejection of the budget would also create deep economic uncertainty. Businesses and investors crave stability, and this scenario would cast a long shadow over the French economy.
**Section 2: The Potential Economic Fallout**
**Editor:** Mr. Philippe, the former Prime Minister, expressed concerns about a potential “financial crisis”. Dr. Rousseau, do you share his concerns given the current economic climate?
**Dr. Rousseau:** Mr. Philippe raises a valid point. France, like many other countries, faces economic headwinds. Prolonged political instability can erode investor confidence, potentially leading to capital flight and negative market reactions. It’s crucial that all parties involved prioritize economic stability.
**Editor:** M. Dubois, what are your thoughts on the impact of this political uncertainty on French businesses and citizens?
**M. Dubois:** The impact on businesses is twofold. The immediate uncertainty discourages investment and hiring. In the longer term, continued political instability can make France a less attractive place to do business. For citizens, it translates into heightened anxiety about the future and their economic security.
**Section 3: Future Scenarios and Moving Forward**
**Editor:** Dr. Rousseau, if the government is toppled, is early legislative elections inevitable?
**Dr. Rousseau:** Legally, the President cannot dissolve the Assembly within a year of the last dissolution. However, given the potential for political deadlock, it’s conceivable that President Macron might seek another mandate from the French people to overcome this crisis.
**
Editor:** Monsieur Dubois, what role might the National Rally play in this unfolding situation?
**M. Dubois:** The National Rally is in a precarious position. On one hand, they benefit politically from a weakened government. On the other hand, aligning themselves too closely with the opposition risks alienating moderate voters.
**Editor:** It seems we are navigating a period of significant political uncertainty. What message do you have for our viewers, Dr. Rousseau?
**Dr. Rousseau:**
The founding principles of the Fifth Republic are essential to navigate this complex situation. The separation of powers between the President and the Prime Minister is crucial for ensuring stability. We need a return to those principles and constructive dialog between all political partners.
**Editor:** Thank you both for sharing your invaluable insights tonight. This is indeed a critical moment in French politics, and we will continue to follow developments closely.
*Note: These are example questions and responses. You could add further discussions about solution-oriented approaches, the public’s perception of the crisis, and international implications of this political instability.
