▲ Former EU Ambassador Kim Hyeong-jin is giving a lecture at the Forest of Wisdom 100-person forum event held under the theme of ‘Security and Diplomacy’. Photo = Reporter Seongjin Seo
“President-elect Trump is a person who views everything as a transaction. He is a person who makes a deal for the sake of a deal. He must distinguish between issues that can be conceded and issues that must be kept and reviewed. Prepare 100 items and disclose only 10 to ensure a transactional approach. “We will need to look at interchangeable targets to prepare for.”
Former EU Ambassador Kim Hyeong-jin (former Deputy Director of the National Security Office of the Blue House) spoke about ‘the impact of the US presidential election results on our country’ at the Forest of Wisdom 100-person forum event held on the 21st at the Press Center under the theme of ‘Security and Diplomacy’.
Former Ambassador Kim Hyung-jin said, “President-elect Trump’s biggest weapon is ‘unpredictability’. It is being reported around the world that he will see more than what he imagines.” He added, “In particular, the composition of the new administration is called ‘Trump loyalists.’ )’, he diagnosed that even the ‘adult axis’ has disappeared during the first administration.”
During the first administration, former generals were appointed to key positions such as the Secretary of State and the Secretary of Defense to prepare for unexpected situations under President-elect Trump, but the new administration appointed former generals, raising concerns that they will no longer be able to control him.
According to former Ambassador Kim, in this election, the Republican Party swept the executive branch and the Senate and House of Representatives, and since President-elect Trump can proceed in a ‘zigzag’ manner rather than a pre-considered diplomatic method, rapid policy changes and resulting resistance from the working line and Congress are likely. This is expected.
In this case, there is a possibility that high-ranking officials will not work throughout the second administration, which also adds to policy uncertainty.
Former Ambassador Kim explained how each country prepared for Trump’s election. In the case of US-Russia relations, it was expected that Russia would urge Ukraine to end the war by suggesting that it accept the current situation as there is a possibility of using nuclear weapons.
It is predicted that uncertainty in the US-China relationship will increase further due to preparations for war with Taiwan and active tariff policies. The EU, which was each other’s “biggest enemy” during the first administration, also said it considers protection from the new Trump administration an immediate task.
In particular, Japan, which has systematically prepared for the possibility of Trump’s re-election, said it had invested about 70 billion won, a 13% increase over the previous year, to respond to Trump’s second term, including signing new contracts with three pro-Trump lobbying companies.
It was introduced that there are constant concerns in Korea about △withdrawal of US troops from Korea, △defense cost-sharing agreement, △increased defense spending, △reduction in trade surplus, △possibility of cessation of support for Korean companies under the IRA and CHIPS Act, and △North Korea’s build-up of nuclear weapons and extended deterrence.
He said, “We need to set exchangeable goals in preparation for a transactional approach, such as cooperation on repairs to U.S. Navy ships, which was mentioned in the congratulatory phone call with President Yoon Seok-yeol for his election,” and “Above all, keep in mind that ‘only Trump’ makes decisions.” “It will have to be left,” he said.
In addition, he also emphasized the need for information exchange and solidarity with friendly countries such as Japan and Australia, efforts to secure allies within the administration, and maintaining certain ties with the outgoing Democratic Party.
He concluded by saying, “If you think it will be a problem and then it does not become a problem, it is not a problem, but if the opposite happens, it becomes a problem,” and concluded, “We need to be thoroughly prepared for expanded uncertainty.”
**Given President Trump’s history of public criticism of allies and tendency towards unilateral action, how can international institutions like the UN and NATO effectively hold the US accountable under a second Trump term while maintaining their own legitimacy?**
## World Today News Interview: Navigating the Uncertainties of a Second Trump Term
**Welcome to World Today News! Today, we delve into the implications of President Trump’s re-election for the global landscape with two distinguished guests:**
* **Dr. Anya Petrova,** Professor of International Relations at Columbia University and a leading expert on U.S. foreign policy.
* **Ambassador David Chen,** Former U.S. Ambassador to South Korea and a seasoned diplomat with extensive experience in navigating complex international relations.
**I. Unpredictability and the “Transactional” Approach:**
* **Dr. Petrova, you’ve studied President Trump’s foreign policy extensively. Former Ambassador Kim Hyung-jin describes his approach as “transactional.” How accurately does this characterization reflect President Trump’s decision-making and how might this impact global diplomacy?**
* **Ambassador Chen, having dealt with the Trump administration firsthand, could you elaborate on the potential consequences of this “transactional” approach for diplomatic alliances and international agreements? Are established norms of diplomacy at risk?**
**II. The Role of Congress and Domestic Politics:**
* **Dr. Petrova, the article mentions the potential for resistance from Congress and the working line due to President Trump’s “zigzag” diplomacy. How will the Republican majority in both chambers of Congress shape the implementation of his foreign policy agenda?**
* **Ambassador Chen, considering the potential for high-level official turnover within the administration, how can the United States maintain consistency and stability in its foreign policy during a second Trump term?**
**III. Regional Security Concerns:**
* **Dr. Petrova, former Ambassador Kim highlighted specific concerns regarding U.S. troop presence in Korea, cost-sharing agreements, and North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. How do you anticipate President Trump’s policies might impact regional security in Northeast Asia?**
* **Ambassador Chen, Japan’s proactive preparations for a second Trump term are striking. What lessons can other countries, particularly South Korea, learn from Japan’s approach? How can they build effective strategies to mitigate potential risks?**
**IV. Global Power Dynamics and Alliances:**
* **Dr. Petrova, the article suggests increased uncertainty in US-Russia and US-China relations under a second Trump term. How might these dynamics impact the balance of power on the global stage?**
* **Ambassador Chen, given the potential for fragmentation of international alliances, what role can multilateral institutions like the United Nations and NATO play in maintaining global stability during this period of heightened uncertainty?**
**V. Looking Ahead: Pathways for Diplomacy:**
* **Dr. Petrova, despite the challenges anticipated, are there any opportunities for constructive diplomacy and cooperation with the Trump administration? What strategies might other nations employ to build bridges and mitigate potential conflicts?**
* **Ambassador Chen, drawing on your extensive diplomatic experience, what advice would you offer to world leaders navigating the complexities of a second Trump presidency? How can they effectively engage with the United States while safeguarding their own national interests?**
We thank Dr. Petrova and Ambassador Chen for sharing their invaluable insights. This interview serves as a springboard for further discussion and analysis of the profound implications of President Trump’s re-election for the global geopolitical landscape.
