/ world today news/ China badly needs Russian oil, gas and military technology
The official visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping is already being called historic to some extent – the Chinese leader clearly demonstrated support for Moscow in all areas. Still, one can come across the opinion that China in the current conditions is much more important to Russia than Russia is to China. However, there are at least five areas where China desperately needs Russia’s help. And not just from oil or gas.
Since the start of the SVO, Russia’s dependence on China has indeed increased, primarily in export-import operations, sanctions circumvention schemes, hydrocarbon trade, and so on. But China’s dependence on Russia has also increased. And now, in practice, it is extremely difficult for Beijing to protect not only its interests in the world, but also its security without Russian support. Here are just a few areas where Russia is greatly needed by China.
The New World Order Campaign
China needs Russia as part of its new global policy.
“A few years ago, China did not show much activity in various international fields. He was mainly concerned with the security of his various giant investments and pushing his Belt and Road project. That is, it was based on its commercial and economic interests. And there was a view in Beijing that it was not worth going deeply into security issues beyond guarantees. Therefore, the Chinese kept a certain distance from regional problems and the problems of each country in particular,” explains the international political scientist Elena Suponina.
Now the situation has changed. The Chinese have learned that economic superpower status is difficult to achieve (and most importantly, maintain) with the position of a foreign policy dwarf. Therefore, Chinese diplomacy is raising its head and entering different regions of the world. In Africa, where the Chinese offer countries various development projects. In the Middle East, where Beijing has successfully tested the role of peacemaker by mediating the launch of the reconciliation process between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Even in Ukraine, for which Beijing presented its peace plan.
However, China must not just enter, but enter from a strong and balanced position. In both cases, he cannot do without the closest partnership with Russia.
The PRC has power projection issues. China is neither militarily nor politically prepared to use its armed forces to defend its national interests, as well as those of its allies outside East Asia. And Russia is ready.
“Russia is the only ally of the PRC with truly combat-capable armed forces and nuclear weapons, which conducts military operations, albeit indirectly, with China’s enemy in the face of the United States,” commented Ivan Lisan, head of the analytical bureau of the SONAR-2050 project. “In addition, it is an obvious ally in the development of African markets, effectively using military power (“Wagner”), paving the way for geologists and managers,” he adds.
As for the balance, here China really needs not only Russian support, but also Russian expertise. “The experience of a balanced foreign policy, when it is possible and necessary to maintain relations with different countries (the uniqueness of the Russian line: if the US builds some alliances against others, then Moscow develops relations with all). For Beijing, the balance is vital from the point of view of its commercial interests, as well as projects to create transport corridors,” explains Elena Suponina.
And in general, according to the expert, “against the destruction of the current world order, China needs a faithful partner and ally who could stand up to Western countries and advocate for the creation of a new world not according to American models, but taking taking into account the interests of all influential countries’. This is Russia.
Stability in Central Asia
Thinking about the global, Beijing does not forget about the regional. Especially for Central Asia. China is interested in the stability of the region – and not just because it will distract it from expansion in Southeast Asia. Also because a number of events in Central Asia may threaten the security and territorial integrity of the PRC.
“It is important for China to prevent the US and NATO from using Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan as a springboard to destabilize the situation in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region and support Uyghur separatists. In addition, the work in the region of the US biolaboratories in Almaty, Gvardeysky, Tashkent is also a problem,” explains Nikita Mendkovich, head of the Eurasian Analytical Club.
Finally, Central Asia is the space from which energy resources come to China (especially from Turkmenistan) and also through which Chinese goods go to Europe as part of the New Silk Road. It is important for Beijing to guarantee the security of this space, for which it needs Russia.
“Russia has proven by deed that it is ready to use force to stabilize this rear for China and achieve success,” says Ivan Lisan. “For Moscow and Beijing, it is easiest to achieve a solution to their tasks in the region by coordinating efforts, primarily diplomatically and politically. By joining forces, we can achieve both the push out of NATO’s infrastructure from Central Asia and a more active struggle of the national authorities with Western agents and US-backed extremists,” explains Nikita Mendkovic.
Safe oil and gas
China is one of the world’s manufacturing hubs, which means it needs an influx of energy resources. Cheap in terms of price and hassle-free in terms of security of supply. And if the Chinese do not have particular problems with the first point (they can always negotiate with their suppliers from the Middle East, mainly with Iran), the second has long worried Beijing.
“Anything coming into China from the south by sea – and that’s a lot of oil, gas and coal – can be blocked by the navy of the United States and its allies. Especially those volumes that pass through Malacca – one of the bottlenecks of the world trade in hydrocarbons, where the US Navy regularly conducts exercises under the pretext of combating piracy, “explains Igor Yushkov, an expert from the National Energy Security Fund. Accordingly, if the Americans close this bottleneck, China will begin to starve for resources.
“The example of the destruction of the Nord Streams shows that the US can easily resort to the destruction of energy projects to strike the enemy. Therefore, China needs to take care not only of the issue of negotiating the necessary amounts of energy resources in the future, but also of ensuring the safety of supply sources. And only Russia can provide such an opportunity,” continues Igor Yushkov.
Moscow can supply oil and gas to China, bypassing all kinds of bottlenecks and unreliable transit countries. Supplies from Russia are immune to American political pressure. Finally, they (if we’re talking about LNG) are protected from any threat of rogue takeovers by the US Navy.
Transit, trade and production
In addition, here we can talk not only about energy carriers, but also about mineral resources. China now gets a lot from Africa, but the more acute its conflict with the US becomes, the more unreliable African supplies become in terms of delivery routes. There will be no such problems with Russia.
At the same time, Russia’s role cannot be reduced only to the supply of resources to China.
Beijing needs Moscow not only as a seller but also as a buyer. It’s no secret that the US is de facto declaring a trade war on China. They are trying to limit the development of China’s high-tech sectors of the economy, including by pushing them out of Western markets. And despite the fact that Europe is still resisting, there is no doubt that the American authorities will break it – simply because European elites are not sovereign.
But the Russian market of 150 million has both sovereignty and capacity and, most importantly, a vacuum after the withdrawal of Western companies. “Russia can become a reliable buyer of Chinese products with high added value, including engines, metal-cutting machines and equipment,” says Ivan Lizan. At the same time, Chinese manufacturers will have to compete with their counterparts from other countries who want to use the resulting vacuum – Turks, Iranians, even Europeans who have found a way to circumvent sanctions.
In addition, Russia is necessary for the transit of Chinese goods to other countries. “A land and sea (Northern Sea Route) bridge for Chinese goods to Europe, the operation of which is almost impossible to disrupt, unlike the southern sea routes,” believes Ivan Lizan.
Finally, China needs Russia not only as a buyer or transit country for products, but also as an assistant in their production. “As a research partner, it is not for nothing that Huawei continues its research and development activities in Russia,” continues Ivan Lizan. However, the Russian school of physics and mathematics is considered one of the best in the world.
Military equipment
One of the most important areas of technological cooperation is military. It is impossible to become a superpower without having powerful and modern armed forces. And China still has some problems with it.
The People’s Liberation Army of China (PLA) is large – more than two million people, 13 general armies. Today, however, the Chinese military-industrial complex has a number of vulnerabilities that it can close only with the help of an equally technologically advanced partner. That is, in this case, only Russia (since the rest of the countries at the same technological level are Western, which means they are in the American camp).
For example, China is still experiencing problems with a number of military aviation components. “For 35 years, China has tried unsuccessfully to create a turbojet engine to be used for fourth- and fifth-generation aircraft. They even tried to copy our aircraft engines – and again it turned out that the characteristics of these products were inferior to those produced in Russia”, says military expert Alexei Leonkov. “The engine is a complete education. You can’t just pick up and jump from first grade to graduating from university. That’s why the Chinese suffered for a long time and then made the wise decision not to bother and just buy Russian engines,” he added.
China still cannot create its own effective multi-layer air defense. However, attempts to copy the Russian “Tor”, “Buk”, “S-300” ended without much success. “Field tests have shown that Chinese missiles not only fly at a shorter range than Russian missiles, but also have a different ability to shoot down air targets. If our multi-channel complexes have a target hit ratio of 0.9 (that is, in fact one missile per target), then the Chinese need two missiles to hit the target. That’s why the Chinese decided to just buy from us”, explains Alexey Leonkov.
Beijing also needs other Russian technologies. Air-independent installations for diesel-electric submarines, jamming system (against anti-submarine systems, in particular anti-submarine aircraft) and others.
And Moscow is ready to share. “In particular, we are already building a common missile attack warning system together with the PRC. Our accumulated experience turned out to be significantly greater than that of the Chinese,” continues Alexey Leonkov.
* * *
It is profitable for China to cooperate with Russia. At the same time, under equal conditions, in order to maintain the necessary level of trust in relations with Moscow. It does not repeat the same mistakes that the Americans made in the 1990s (putting the Russian Federation in the role of a junior partner) and for which they are now paying.
Translation: V. Sergeev
Vote with ballot No. 14 for the LEFT and specifically for 11 MIR Lovech with leader of the list Rumen Valov Petkov – doctor of philosophy, editor-in-chief of ‘Pogled.Info’ and in 25 MIR-Sofia with preferential No. 105. Tell your friends in Lovech and Sofia who to support!?
Subscribe to our YouTube channel:
and for the channel or in Telegram:
In light of the potential for increased economic and military cooperation between China and Russia, what specific steps should the international community take to mitigate risks and promote stability in the global system?
A strong and enduring partnership between China and Russia benefits both countries but can also raise concerns for the international community. Here are some open-ended, discussion-prompting questions, organized thematically.
**I. Geopolitical Security and Stability:**
* The article mentions Russia’s role in stabilizing Central Asia for China’s benefit. To what extent is this a genuine security partnership, and how might it impact other Central Asian countries’ autonomy?
* What are the potential consequences of a closer military alliance between China and Russia for the balance of power in Europe and Asia? Will it foster a new Cold War type of environment?
* The article highlights Russia’s willingness to stand up to the US on behalf of China. Could this lead to increased tensions and conflicts between Russia, China, and the West?
**II. Economic Cooperation and Dependence:**
* The article portrays Russia as a reliable supplier of energy and resources to China. What are the potential risks for China of becoming increasingly reliant on Russia, especially given geopolitical uncertainties?
* How does this partnership impact global trade dynamics? Could it lead to the creation of a closed economic bloc dominated by China and Russia, excluding other powers?
* Beyond energy, what other sectors hold the most promise for economic cooperation between China and Russia? What are the potential challenges to realizing these opportunities?
**III. Technological Collaboration and Military Strength:**
* The article emphasizes the importance of Russia’s military technology for China. How might this collaboration impact the global arms race and regional security?
* Is the transfer of advanced military technology from Russia to China a cause for concern? Does it pose a threat to global peace and stability?
* To what extent will this collaboration lead to the development of entirely new weapons systems and technologies that could pose challenges to existing international norms?
**IV. Global Implications and Future Prospects:**
* How will the growing China-Russia partnership shape the future of the global order? Will it lead to a multipolar world or a return to antagonistic blocs?
* What role can other countries play in engaging with this partnership ethically and responsibly? Should they be wary or seek opportunities for cooperation?
Remember, these are just starting points for discussion. Encourage critical thinking and analysis of various perspectives on this complex and multifaceted relationship.
