“Trump’s plan to deport large-scale immigrants raises concerns about wreaking havoc on the U.S. economy and society.”

“Trump’s plan to deport large-scale immigrants raises concerns about wreaking havoc on the U.S. economy and society.”

View larger imageTrump visits the border area. Photo = Reuters
As President-elect Trump pledges to deport undocumented immigrants on a large scale, the U.S. economy and industry are paying close attention.

Experts predict that if this policy becomes a reality, a serious blow to the U.S. economy will inevitably occur.

Axios reported on the 20th (local time) that former President Trump’s pledge to deport large-scale immigrants could cause serious chaos throughout the U.S. economy and society. Trump’s policy, which pledged to deport undocumented immigrants immediately after taking office, is expected to face major challenges in terms of feasibility and economic feasibility.

According to an analysis by the American Immigration Council, if this policy is implemented, economic losses are expected to amount to up to $1.7 trillion, equivalent to 4.2 to 6.8 percent of annual GDP. This is higher than the GDP decline (4.3%) during the global financial crisis of 2007-2009. The cost of the deportation operation alone is estimated to be at least $315 billion.

A shock to the industry seems inevitable. As of 2022, in the construction industry, 39% of plasterers and bricklayers and 36% of drywall installers are undocumented workers. In the agricultural sector, 28% of agricultural product sorters and 25% of other agricultural workers are undocumented, and their large-scale deportation could lead to a serious manpower shortage.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently credited immigrants with contributing to stabilizing the U.S. labor market following the pandemic. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) also predicted that U.S. GDP would increase by $7 trillion over the next 10 years due to the influx of immigrants.

A Pew Research survey found that 75% of U.S. voters believe that undocumented immigrants are filling jobs that their own citizens avoid.

Trump is planning large-scale deportations using the military and law enforcement, but there are significant practical limitations. There is currently a backlog of 3.7 million immigration cases and a shortage of immigration judges and detention centers. Experts predicted that plans to mobilize the National Guard would also face turf wars and community backlash.

Concerns from a humanitarian aspect are also raised. An estimated 4 million mixed-race families could be broken up, and 8.5 million U.S. citizens are at risk of being separated from their undocumented family members. This can reduce the household’s annual income by an average of 63% (about $51,000).

Experts warn that this policy could shake the foundations of the U.S. economy. The Democratic Party and immigrant rights groups are preparing legal action, but Republican-led states, such as Texas, are supporting Trump’s policies. As a result, if this is pursued, it is expected that the division in American society surrounding immigration policy will deepen and economic uncertainty will increase.

Global Economics Reporter Park Jeong-han [email protected]

**To what extent does Dr. Carter’s analysis ‌of the economic impact of mass⁤ deportations align with the principles of Pareto efficiency, and what are the potential limitations of using economic arguments ⁣alone ​to assess the policy’s overall consequences?** ‌

## World Today News Exclusive Interview: Deportation Dilemma​ – Economic ‌Impact and Societal Divide

**Host:** Welcome to World Today⁣ News. Today we’re tackling‍ a hot-button issue: former President Trump’s pledge ​to deport undocumented immigrants on a mass⁤ scale. We’re⁢ joined by two esteemed guests: Dr. Emily Carter, an economist specializing in immigration’s impact on labor markets, and Mr. David Sanchez, a human rights attorney⁤ and advocate for⁣ immigrant rights. Welcome both.

**Dr. Carter and Mr. ⁢Sanchez:** Thank ​you for having us.

**Host:**‍ Let’s dive straight in. ​Dr.‍ Carter, the article highlights potential staggering economic losses associated with‌ mass deportations. Could you elaborate on the potential impact on specific industries and the overall US⁤ economy?

**Dr. Carter:** Certainly. The potential economic repercussions are indeed alarming. Industries ​heavily reliant on undocumented labor, ⁣like construction‌ and agriculture, face severe manpower shortages, potentially crippling production and driving up costs. ​This ripple effect could ⁣disrupt supply chains, impact consumer⁣ prices, and ultimately slow economic growth. ​We also can’t ignore the loss of valuable human capital and entrepreneurial spirit that undocumented‍ immigrants contribute to​ American ⁢society.

**Host:** Mr. Sanchez,‌ shifting⁤ gears to the humanitarian aspect, the article ⁢mentions potential family separations⁢ and the ⁤devastating impact on families. What are⁤ your ‍thoughts on the human cost of such a policy?

**Mr. Sanchez:**⁤ This policy would be​ a humanitarian catastrophe. Beyond the ‌economic ​impact, we’re talking ⁢about tearing apart families, uprooting children ‌from their homes and communities,⁣ and inflicting trauma that may last⁣ generations. This⁤ isn’t just about numbers; these are real lives, real families who contribute to the fabric of American society.

**Host:** The article mentions ⁣conflicting⁢ viewpoints on immigration, with some arguing that undocumented immigrants fill jobs American citizens avoid. Dr. Carter, can you shed light on this debate and ​the broader impact on the US labor market?

**Dr. Carter:** ‍ It’s a⁣ complex issue. While some argue that undocumented immigrants take jobs from American citizens,⁢ research suggests they often fill gaps in the ​labor market, particularly in sectors facing labor ⁢shortages. Their presence‍ can boost⁤ overall economic activity and create ⁢new job opportunities. It’s crucial to ⁤consider‌ the nuanced reality of how immigration affects the labor market, avoiding simplistic narratives.

**Host:**​ Mr. Sanchez, what legal avenues are available to challenge such a deportation ⁣policy, and what are the potential roadblocks?

**Mr. Sanchez:** Numerous legal challenges could ‍arise, contesting the legality and constitutionality of mass deportations, particularly‍ the due process rights of immigrants. However, facing ‍a⁣ politically divided nation,​ navigating the legal system ⁤will ‌be⁢ a long and arduous journey. We need to mobilize public support, raise awareness about the human cost, and fight tirelessly to ​protect the rights of⁢ all individuals.

**Host:** both of you have highlighted the potential​ for this ⁤policy to further deepen societal divisions. How can we bridge this divide‍ and⁣ find⁣ common ground on this‍ complex and emotionally charged issue?

**Dr. Carter:** ⁤ Open and honest dialog is ⁣essential.​ We must move ‍beyond partisan rhetoric ⁢and engage in nuanced discussions based on ‌facts and evidence.‍ Recognizing the ​economic contributions of immigrants, understanding the human cost ​of mass deportation, and exploring comprehensive ⁢immigration⁤ reforms that address both economic concerns and humanitarian needs are⁤ crucial⁣ steps ⁣towards a more just and sustainable solution.

**Mr. Sanchez:** We must ⁣remember that we are all human beings deserving of dignity‌ and respect, regardless of immigration status. By sharing stories, building empathy, and ‌advocating⁣ for humane and just policies, we can create a more​ inclusive and welcoming‍ society for all.

**Host:**

Thank you, both, for this illuminating discussion. It’s clear‌ that this debate will ⁣continue to unfold, demanding careful consideration‍ of both economic realities and human⁣ values.

We encourage our viewers to continue ‍engaging⁣ in respectful dialog and exploring diverse perspectives on this vital issue. For‌ World Today News, I’m [Your Name].