Ukraine can do this with such missiles

• Paulus Houthuijs

  Text editor online

A big wish from President Zelensky came true this week. ATACMS missiles were launched from Ukraine for the first time during the night from Monday to Tuesday on targets in Russia. Yesterday too the first Storm Shadow missiles hit military targets in Russia.

The use of these Western missiles on Russian territory begins a new chapter in military support for Ukraine in the ongoing war. Apparently in response, President Putin has now officially changed Russia’s so-called nuclear doctrine.

Under the new rules, Russia can consider an attack by American or British missiles as a joint attack on Russia by those countries. Or the new teaching is bluffingsuch as the ‘higher state of readiness’ of nuclear units at the start of the war, will soon become clear. In any case, the governments in Washington, London and Paris do not want to officially confirm that the missiles they have provided are used in this way.

Zelensky has been lobbying for the unrestricted use of three types of attack missiles from 2022. Ukraine has had two of them for more than a year: the American ATACMS and the British Storm Shadow, which were jointly developed to the French and called SCALP there. Kyiv has not received German Taurus missiles yet, but they are now in the spotlight again. What can these missiles do and what can Ukraine achieve with them?

ATACMS is the only ballistic missile of the trio. This means that it lands on a target from a launch facility on the ground in a high arc through the air.

In contrast, SCALP/Storm Shadow and Taurus are aircraft-launched cruise missiles. They then fly low over the ground towards a target. “So ATACMS is much faster,” said Fabian Hoffmann, a rocket expert affiliated with the University of Oslo, among others.

On paper, ATACMS can fly more than three times as fast as Storm Shadow and altitude three times faster than sound. According to Hoffmann, the US-made ballistic missile is slightly more accurate than the two European cruise missiles.

“ATACMS is best for attacking targets spread over a larger area.” He gives the example of a large gathering of soldiers or fighter jets at an airport. The rocket, which is about 4 meters long, also fits an international warhead controversial weapon type which both Russia and Ukraine use.

“The Taurus and Storm Shadow, on the other hand, are more effective on a smaller surface area,” said defense analyst Hoffmann. “In return, they are much more powerful.” These cruise missiles can penetrate and explode bunkers deep underground. According to him, Ukraine could also use it, for example, to blow up the bridge between the occupied Crimea and the Russian mainland.

SCALP flies so low above the ground that the missile is very difficult to pick up with radar systems. The Taurus made in Germany and Sweden seems to be even harder to find. Hoffmann: “The signal received by the radar is no bigger than a bird. Taurus can also make a U-turn and surprise a target from behind.”

Although Zelensky asked for it again this week, the Taurus does not seem to be on the way at this time. In Europe, Germany is an important military ally of Ukraine, but Scholz is very careful about this.

The chancellor looked there start this year note that the cruise missile has a range of 500 kilometers so it can reach Moscow. Scholz seems to see this as too great a risk and he reiterated on Monday that the Taurus missiles will remain in Germany.

By the way, on paper a storm shadow can even travel a little further than the Taurus, which is 550 kilometers. Only the export version of this missile has a range of 250 kilometers. According to Hoffmann, Ukraine has had the variant that can fly more than twice as far. “In theory, this could be technically limited to a range of 250 kilometers, but I believe that this position is only imposed politically.”

At the moment, it is still a matter of guesswork regarding the exact conditions that apply to Ukraine to fire SCALP or ATACMS in Russia. It is only discussed behind the scenes with anonymous officials.

It is an important promotion for Kiev. It allows the military to strike in the same way that Russia does in Ukraine: a large coordinated air attack with drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles from different directions at the same time. “It’s very difficult to defend that,” says Hoffmann.

“But these long-term funds are not going to change the state of the war fundamentally in favor of Ukraine,” he continues. Because Washington has been publishing for a long time, Russia has been able to prepare for it.

Brigadier General and professor at the Dutch Defense Academy Han Bouwmeester and Hague think tank HCSS defense expert Peter Wijninga also said on Monday when asked that the new missiles will not make a strategic difference that the war will change. “For a counterattack you need more power,” Bouwmeester said.

Hoffmann: “We also know that Russia has been successful in taking down ATACMS. Attacks by Ukraine on occupied territory would require the launch of eight missiles to do sure a target was hit.”

In the end, he believes, a lot depends on how many missiles Ukraine gets. And what will Donald Trump decide when he is in the White House in two months. The future president’s friends have publicly lashed out at Biden after he authorized these types of missile strikes.