Trump’s peace plan, the Russian army continues / LR1 / / Latvijas Radio

The focus of the program is Ukraine, or rather, the war in Ukraine and what is happening around it. On November 19, 1,000 days had already passed since the start of the full-scale invasion of Russia.

Current events are analyzed by National Guard headquarters officer, major Janis Sladins and researcher at the Center for East European Policy Studies, lecturer at the Faculty of Social Sciences at Riga Stradiņš University Elina Wroblevska. We listen to the recording Dmitry Levuspolitical scientist, director of the social research center “Meridian of Ukraine”.

The Russian hairy snail

Looking at the graphs of changes in the territory of Ukraine captured by Russia over the last thousand days, it must be concluded that the level of the occupation war, which began at the beginning of the winter of 2022 by withdrawing Russian troops from the south bank of the Dnieper near Kherson, continues. Since then, the front line has moved slightly, and between February 2023 and February 2024, the amount of square kilometers controlled by the parties has not changed at all.

However, an unpleasant trend has appeared after that – the Russian armed forces managed to push the Ukrainians back in some places with heavy efforts and losses. Such a snail’s pace, leaving a wide bloody trail behind. Ukraine’s sudden and successful attack on the Kursk region of the Russian Federation in August could not have a major impact on this movement either. In general, during this year, Russia has increased the part of the territory of Ukraine under its control by about two thousand square kilometers, and about a quarter of these gains were achieved in the last few weeks. left. This has led some media to claim that the front line of the Ukrainian armed forces is collapsing in many places.

The most active Russian pressure remains in the Donetsk region, as well as in the Kursk region of Russia, from where the Russians are trying to dislodge Ukrainian forces stationed there.

As is known, in June of this year, the Russian leader Putin for the first time raised concrete territorial claims against Ukraine – Russia wants to remove all the regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson from Ukraine. For now, even taking into account the latest developments, it is difficult to imagine achieving these goals through military means. Almost all of Luhansk Oblast is in Russian hands, but more than a third of Donetsk Oblast remains under Ukrainian control, as well as a significant part of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts, along with the two main town oblast. It is difficult to even estimate the amount of manpower and equipment the Kremlin should purchase to achieve its leader’s coveted goal with current tactics.

Prepared by Eduards Liniņš.

Trump’s peace plan

Ukraine must win this war – this is what the leaders of almost all Western countries said, supporting Ukraine in the fight against the aggressor. In reality, however, aid has been insufficient, and many analysts say that many countries do not want Ukraine to win. Aid was given just enough to keep Ukraine from losing, so the long and wearisome bloodshed continues.

However, the situation is likely to change with the US presidential election. Donald Trump has said that his main goal is to stop the war. And the US has the ability to do that. Since the election, speculation has been rife as to what will form the basis of the US offer. The most likely scenario is an ultimatum for both sides to come to the negotiating table and agree on the terms of a ceasefire, or promise to either cut off all aid to Ukraine or give it the kind of aid that is not ‘ they ever got before. Both sides should think twice before saying no to Donald Trump.

This possible scenario of future events in Europe gives rise to very mixed feelings. First, it will mean that Ukraine may have to make concessions and leave some, if not all, of the territories previously conquered by Russia under Russian control. This can lead to a very tense domestic political situation in Ukraine.

Second, a ceasefire would allow Russia to recover and strengthen. And this in turn creates a major security risk for all of Europe in the future. Therefore, many European countries still say that they will do everything possible to win Ukraine.

On the evening of November 17, the world was shocked by the news that the outgoing, but still in office, has finally given permission to use long-range missiles so that the Ukraine shot at military targets deeper into Russia. But, many analysts say, Western aid has consistently come too late since the war began. This US decision was expected for a long time as well, and it will hardly be able to significantly change what is happening on the front. In two months, Donald Trump will start running the White House, and he has decided to start implementing his policy even before the inauguration ceremony.

Prepared by Aidis Thomson.