Trump will cause a stir in the Middle East, that’s for sure

• Mineke Lautenbag

  Editor from abroad

Donald Trump‘s election victory could have a major impact on the Middle East. During his campaign, the incoming US president promised to end the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, but US policy could also change for Iran and Saudi Arabia. “Trump is unpredictable and you can go in several directions with his statements,” says Paul Aarts, a lecturer in international relations at the University of Amsterdam.

Trump is sure to cause a stir, according to Noa Schonmann, a lecturer in international relations at Leiden University. Trump’s election victory could lead to… reset in the Middle East that works to the benefit of America’s allies.”

Israel responded enthusiastically to Trump’s victory. In his first presidential term, Trump recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and moved the US embassy there. A controversial step, as East Jerusalem is considered an occupied zone under international law.

“But the joy in Israel is somewhat premature,” says Aarts, “Because Trump can take a more critical position towards Israel than is sometimes thought.”

In an America First policy, the American economy and immigration are more important than foreign policy. Joost Hiltermann, program director at the International Crisis Group think tank, says Trump is largely against more wars, especially in the Middle East.

Trump is pushing Netanyahu to quickly end the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, risking further tensions between them. Aarts: “Trump has said to Netanyahu: you have to finish the job, but Netanyahu certainly does not want that. He wants to continue these wars so that he can stay in power longer.”

Schonmann sees that the personal relationship with Netanyahu is also important for Trump. For example, it was embarrassing when Netanyahu congratulated Biden for his election victory in 2020. Trump will also use to make politics personal in the event of a ceasefire, so that he can take credit. “Trump is an actor,” Schonmann says.

She believes that the Palestinians will pay a high price anyway, even if a ceasefire is reached. “Israel will not disappear from Gaza and Lebanon because the US is supporting Israel in the fight against Iranian-backed resistance groups, for example through raids.”

In his first term, Trump presented what he called the “deal of the century” to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. If he goes through with that plan now, the Palestinians must fear for their land. The proposal recognizes Israeli settlements in the West Bank, although they are against international law.

Trump will also want to win praise by extending the so-called Abraham Accords, which could also be harmful to the situation of the Palestinians. The Abraham Accords are agreements concluded in 2020 between four Arab countries and Israel, with the aim of establishing relations. “Trump wants to finish what he started,” says Schonmann, “and normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel is the most important step.”

Saudi Arabia’s position for that normalization is a two-state solution. On the other hand, the country also wants to conclude a defense agreement with the US. “Of course I do not expect that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will finally agree to a semi-soft form of a Palestinian state,” says Aarts.

An extension of the Abraham Accords should lead to strong cooperation against Iran. In the previous term, Trump withdrew the US from the nuclear deal with that country and imposed strict sanctions on Tehran.

Iran’s complete isolation, both diplomatically and financially, is aimed at ensuring that the country does not pose a threat to US allies and US military bases in the region.

Trump’s crackdown on Iran is also personal. Various media outlets, including the AP news agency, messages last week about an Iranian plan to kill Trump after he authorized the 2020 assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani.

Trump could further pit US allies and Iran and their allies against each other. “Trump is expected to polarize the Middle East,” Hiltermann says. And with polarization, escalation lurks, Aarts warns. “A miscalculation can cause a fire,” but it still unbelievable.