Table of Contents
- 0.1 Donald Trump announced Monday that his administration would declare a national emergency and use the US military to carry out mass deportations of undocumented immigrants. But this is without taking into account the economic and financial repercussions, as well as the legal problems that manu militari expulsion raises. of more than 11 million illegal immigrants.
- 0.2 State of emergency and use of the army
- 0.3 Economic repercussions of deporting immigrants
- 0.4 Legal puzzle
- 1 Been utilized for such purposes in peacetime. Additionally, deploying the military for domestic law enforcement raises constitutional issues, particularly regarding the Posse Comitatus Act, which restricts the use of the military for civilian law enforcement duties. This proposal could be perceived as authoritarian and might provoke significant public backlash as well as legal challenges.
Donald Trump announced Monday that his administration would declare a national emergency and use the US military to carry out mass deportations of undocumented immigrants. But this is without taking into account the economic and financial repercussions, as well as the legal problems that manu militari expulsion raises. of more than 11 million illegal immigrants.
It was a flagship measure in his electoral program. Once officially installed in the White House on January 20, the future 47th President of the United States who, echoing the grotesque rhetoric of fascists and white supremacists, accused – during an electoral rally in Hampshire on January 16 last December- immigrants to “poison the blood of the country” promises to organize “the largest expulsion in the history of the United States”.
State of emergency and use of the army
Thus, Donald Trump confirmed Monday, November 18 on the platform Truth Social that, from the start of his second term, he will declare a “state of emergency” and “call on the army” to expel illegal immigrants. Knowing that he had argued last April that the National Guard “should be capable” of taking care of expulsions. “If that’s not the case, I would use the army,” he told the magazine. Time.
Note in this regard that the American Constitution allows the president to declare a “national emergency” in exceptional situations. Trump did not hesitate to implement this provision during his first term in order to allocate an $8 billion budget to build a wall on the border with Mexico, to stop the flow of immigrants.
Worse. Through a legal twist, the Republican billionaire could rely on a law of 1798, called the Alien Enemies Act, which applies to nationals of countries at war with the United States.
Thus, illegal immigration, which peaked in 2023 with 2.5 million border crossings, would then be assimilated to “an invasion”. This law would also authorize the military to intervene on a population of civilians.
In the meantime, the future tenant of the White House, whose file on immigration is omnipresent in all his speeches, all his debates and all his meetings, has already appointed a trusted man, Tom Homan, to head the ICE, the US agency responsible for border and immigration control. A position that this former police officer had already occupied during Trump’s first term and where he distinguished himself by applying methods of extreme brutality, going so far as to supervise between 2017 and 2018 a policy which led to the separation of 4,000 migrant children of their parents placed in detention!
Economic repercussions of deporting immigrants
However, several economists question the overall cost of a plan for the massive expulsion of immigrants, which a serious study estimates at 88 billion dollars per year, or 967.9 billion over more than a decade. As well as the economic repercussions of the expulsion of more than 11 million illegal immigrants. Especially since the country is already facing a serious labor shortage.
However, the estimate of 88 billion per year only concerns the direct costs of this plan, according to the report of theAmerican Immigration Council. Indeed, most economic studies expect large-scale expulsions of illegal aliens to result in a reduction in the workforce. Particularly in certain sectors, as well as an increase in wages and inflation. This would translate into a reduction in U.S. GDP of 4.2% to 6.8%, comparable to the 4.3% decline during the 2007-2009 recession.
Legal puzzle
On the other hand, Donald Trump’s mind-blowing project risks encountering a cascade of legal problems given the legal protections granted by the American Constitution to any person, regardless of their nationality. “Trump can’t just arrest people and deport them the next day,” says Stephen Yale-Loehr, professor of immigration law at Cornell University. Adding that “the speech is one thing and the application is another”.
Indeed, people in an irregular situation must first be presented to a judge who will rule on their request to remain in the United States. However, “there is already a stock of 3.6 million backlogged cases in our immigration courts for around 700 judges” explains the same source which continues that “we would therefore have to recruit thousands of new judges, without counting immigration police officers to arrest undocumented immigrants; without forgetting the construction of new detention centers and the planes to deport them.”
Will Congress, even dominated by Republicans, be ready to spend the astronomical sum of 967.9 billion over more than a decade? So asks the professor of immigration law. For her part, Nayna Gupta, policy director of the American Immigration Council, believes that “a plan for mass expulsions of immigrants would be difficult to implement immediately in its entirety”, due in particular to this “dissuasive” cost.
Arguments which do not seem to disturb the sleep of the future tenant of the White House unduly!
Here is an interview with 2 guests about the information provided in the article:
Guest 1: Jean-Louis, an Economics Professor at the University of Texas
Question: Would the economic repercussions of the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants outweigh the potential benefits to the labor market?
Jean-Louis: The potential benefits are difficult to determine, as the American economy relies heavily on immigrant labor, particularly in sectors such as agriculture and hospitality. The cost of losing so many workers could be significant, with estimates suggesting a decline in GDP of 4.2% to 6.8%. Additionally, the disruption to supply chains and markets could have long-lasting effects. On the other hand, some argue that deporting undocumented immigrants would make room for more legal immigrants who could fill these roles. However, it’s important to note that the United States already faces a skilled labor shortage which could worsen if qualified workers are forced to leave the country.
Guest 2: Sarah, an Immigration Lawyer based in New York City
Question: What legal hurdles does the Trump administration need to overcome to implement mass deportations of undocumented immigrants?
Sarah: There are many legal barriers to mass deportations. The Fourth Amendment protects individuals from unreasonable searches and seizures, and requiring proof of legal residency would potentially violate this amendment. Additionally, due process rights under the Fifth Amendment require that individuals facing deportation be given a fair hearing before an impartial judge. The sheer volume of cases backlogged in immigration courts would make this an impossible task without significant reforms. Furthermore, the Supreme Court has already ruled that families cannot be separated at the border, which could impact the administration’s plans for family deportations.
Guest 1: Following up on Sarah’s point, do you think the Trump administration’s proposal to use the army for mass deportations is constitutional?
Jean-Louis: This proposal raises serious concerns about civil rights and the use of military force within the borders of the United States. The Alien Enemies Act of 1798, which the President is potentially relying on, was intended for times of war or invasion, and has never
