This article was originally published in English
According to the Spanish company Deoleo, one of the most difficult periods for the sector is about to end and in the coming months prices will fall to half of the historical highs
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The world’s largest olive oil producer expects prices to cool after the sector recorded record prices earlier this year due to the impact on the harvest of climate change-related drought and high interest rates and inflation on the supply chain.
Nell’Ue i Olive oil prices increased 50 percent year-on-year in January and in the UK they jumped 150 percent compared to the end of 2021.
In Spain, where it is concentrated almost half of world production of olive oil, two consecutive years of drought have limited olive harvests, causing a surge in prices worldwide.
Ora Deoleothe maker of household olive oil brands such as Bertolli and Carbonell, expects a better harvest for the 2024-2025 season.
“The outlook is positive for the coming months, as the market begins to stabilize and that normality will be gradually restored as the new harvest advances and supply increases,” Miguel Ángel Guzmán, commercial director of Deoleo, told CNBC, adding that the crisis is not completely over, as there I am still tensions on the prices of some high quality olive oils, such as Extra Virgin.
The industry leader predicts that i prices will fall to half of record levels registered at the beginning of the year.
“The easing of prices at the source is expected to begin between November, December and January, provided that weather and harvesting conditions remain stable in the coming weeks,” Guzmán specified.
Meanwhile, other Mediterranean countries are facing contrasting prospects. Greece is struggling with a prolonged droughtwhich dashed hopes of a robust harvest. There Türkiyewhich last year became the world’s second-largest producer of olive oil, estimates a record harvest with 475 thousand tons of olive oil.
In Italia estimates predict a national production of approximately 224 thousand tons, with a significant decrease compared to last year due to extreme climatic phenomena and water stress which have especially affected the South, which represents two thirds of Italian olive production.
What factors contributed to the record prices of olive oil earlier this year, and how have these affected the overall market?
Can you tell us more about the current situation in the olive oil industry, particularly the factors that have led to record prices earlier this year?
What are the short-term and long-term implications of the forecasted price decrease for olive oil producers, processors, and consumers?
How does the geographical distribution of olive oil production affect its price dynamics, and what role does climate change play in this context?
Could you elaborate on the specific challenges faced by Spain, Greece, and Turkey in their respective olive oil industries, and how these differ from those in Italy?
What measures have been taken by policymakers or industry associations to address the challenges posed by high inflation and interest rates on the supply chain of olive oil?
What are some potential solutions to stabilize olive oil prices in the future, considering the impact of climate change and other external factors?
Do you see any potential for collaboration among olive oil-producing countries to improve supply chain dynamics and address common challenges?
