approach China before the Trump storm in the US

When you want to solve a problem, it helps to be able to define it. But when it comes to a problem like China, Western leaders have a hard time being precise. For now, Downing Street maintains a position of resistance that is summarized in three “Cs”: challenge, compete, cooperate (challenge, compete and cooperate). The current Labor Government is aware that the position it takes towards the Asian giant will largely determine the prosperity of the United Kingdom and the health of its institutions over the next 15 years. Because we have reached a point where the strategy towards Beijing has ceased to be merely a matter of foreign policy. and he premier Keir Starmer He had it very much in mind this Monday when he met with Xi Jinpingbecoming the first British president to face the Chinese president in more than six years.

The meeting took place in the room of the Sheraton Grand Hotel in Rio de Janeiro, where both leaders are participating in the G20 summit, with the aim of thaw the icy bilateral relations of recent years to boost the slow economic growth of the United Kingdom and draw bridges before the great geopolitical challenges that Donald Trump’s return to the White House will pose.

“We want our relationships to be consistent, long-lasting, respectful and, as we have agreed, avoid surprises whenever possibleStarmer said. “A strong relationship between the United Kingdom and China is important for both countries and for the wider international community,” he added to reporters.

However, the tone changed drastically when the premier addressed sensitive topics such as human rights, the situation in Taiwan—where, according to Bloomberg estimatesan escalation of tensions in the Strait would cost British taxpayers five times more than the conflict in Ukraine—, the sanctions imposed by Beijing on British parliamentarians and the case of Jimmy Lai, the British pro-democracy tycoon who faces trial in Hong Kong. Chinese officials reacted expelling British journalists from the room.

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The altercation was a clear example of the enormous challenge that the Labor Government faces in its uncomfortable approach towards Beijing. The meeting between Starmer and Xi – which takes place after a visit by the head of British diplomacy David Lammy to China last October – will also be scrutinized by the “hawks” in Westminster, who fear that the premier is putting economic concerns above human rights.

The thawing of relations has an even broader and more complex reading after the electoral victory of Donald Trump, who has committed to imposing a general tariff of at least 10% on all imports and up to 60% for products from China. In the event of a trade war, the United Kingdom will face an economic blow greater than that of Brexit, as The Times warns.

Beyond the meeting, the Labor Executive is still working on its policy towards the Asian giant. The audit being carried out in Whitehall (where ministries are concentrated) will not be completed until next year. It will be then that the head of the Treasury, Rachel Reeves, and perhaps even Starmer himself, can visit Beijing. The government’s priority is economic growth and that is difficult without a working relationship with its fourth most important trading partner. But national security must also be protected and, According to MI5 chief Ken McCallum, China is “a large-scale threat” to British democracy.

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For now, Downing Street assures that he will “challenge” China on human rights abuses and its support for Russia in Ukraine; “will compete” in matters of trade; and “cooperate” on shared interests, such as global health and climate change. This is language similar to that used by other Western powers.
The difficult thing, according to the BBCis determining where exactly to draw the line. Does “compete” mean ban chinese electric vehicles in the UK car market? Does “challenge” mean restrict wealthy students from the Asian country Can they attend cash-strapped British universities? Does “cooperate” imply share private medical research to help prevent a future pandemic?” he says.

The Global Timesa media outlet with close ties to the communist regime, suggests three other “Cs”: communication, consensus and cooperation. “On the basis of pragmatic and rational principles, the two sides can achieve results that benefit both nations and jointly address global challenges,” he points out.

The position of the United Kingdom with respect to the Asian giant underwent a great transformation during the last fourteen years with the tories in power. David Cameron even took Xi Jinping for a few pints in an English pub announcing the beginning of a “golden era.” Theresa May traveled to Beijing for tea. With Brexit, Boris Johnson also wanted to strengthen ties, but just six months after opening the doors to Huawei, he prohibited any access by the company to the United Kingdom’s 5G network, thus giving in to pressure from Washington and part of its ranks. . The fleeting Liz Truss hardened the position even further and Rishi Sunak opted for “robust pragmatism” and, instead of a “threat”—as a significant sector of his own ranks demanded—he chose to call China a “systemic challenge.” At the 2022 G20 summit, Sunak even closed a meeting with Xi Jinping, but it had to be canceled at the last minute after a missile explosion on the border with Poland.

The current Labor tenant of Downing Street look for a “reboot” nowbut the obstacles are not few. According to Stephen Bush, Financial Times analystthere are two important limitations. “The first was offering citizenship rights to 2.9 million Hong Kongers in the summer of 2020. This will continue to be a potential source of political friction, as it means that there is a good amount of organized opposition to the Chinese Communist Party in the UK,” he says. The second is the Aukus, the security pact of 2021 between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States “Both commitments put pressure on the bilateral relationship and mean that the Starmer-era relationship with China. It will be more like that of the Sunak era than that of Cameronregardless of what the new government wants,” he points out.

For its part, Richard Whitman, del think tank UK in a Changing Europeassures that the United Kingdom may be under pressure to align with the expected strengthening of US restrictions on trade with the Asian giant. “The expectation that Trump will take a tougher stance on China would seem at odds with a Labor government that is pursuing a cautious policy. This could be an area where the UK government, along with other Europeans, will be pressured to align with the Trump administration’s expected tough stance.”he points out.

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The UK-China Joint Economic and Trade Commission (JETCO), set up to boost bilateral trade and investment between the two countries, was frozen by the last Conservative government following Beijing’s crackdown on Hong Kong. The current Minister of Business and Trade, Jonathan Reynolds, he recently assured Politico that trade It is an area “where cooperation is possible with China” and that, compared to other G7 countries, “the United Kingdom is an outlier because of the little engagement we have had with Beijing.” “Despite deep tensions between the United States and China, many high-ranking American politicians and cabinet members regularly engage with their Chinese counterparts. It’s much more than what we do”, he noted.

The United States’ view of China toward the end of the first Trump administration was a comprehensive dissociation, in which Beijing was presented in largely confrontational terms. However, Joe Biden preferred to talk about “tough competition.” In 2023, the White House national defense strategy document deemed Russia an “acute threat,” while China was portrayed as the only long-term “competitor” to the United States.

The problem with categorizing China is that there are multiple aspects to its global role as it expands its presence on the world stage. Unlike the Cold War rivalry between the Soviet Union and the United States, today’s superpower clash involves two deeply intertwined economies. Trade in goods between the United States and China tIt was worth $690.6 billion in 2022 and attempts on both sides of the Pacific to untangle the relationship have been hampered by ties of all kinds. Everything regarding the Asian giant is extremely complex in geopolitical terms.

When you want to solve a problem, it helps to be able to define it. But when it comes to a problem like China, Western leaders have a hard time being precise. For now, Downing Street maintains a position of resistance that is summarized in three “Cs”: challenge, compete, cooperate (challenge, compete and cooperate). The current Labor Government is aware that the position it takes towards the Asian giant will largely determine the prosperity of the United Kingdom and the health of its institutions over the next 15 years. Because we have reached a point where the strategy towards Beijing has ceased to be merely a matter of foreign policy. and he premier Keir Starmer He had it very much in mind this Monday when he met with Xi Jinpingbecoming the first British president to face the Chinese president in more than six years.

How can the UK balance its economic interests with ‌national security concerns in its dealings with China?

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Question: How do‍ you think the UK government should approach its ‌relationship with China considering the economic and⁣ geopolitical implications?