Will New York abandon the Democrats?

One reason for their unhappiness surpasses all others: crime. Like Rosaria, many residents feel that the disorder in their area is now “out of control.” Migrants – North Corona who received a large part of the 200,000 who entered New York from 2022 – are often blamed for the increase in crime. But it was in the Bronx that I saw the worst city. Walking west from the AOC area, in the poorest neighborhood din New York, a fight breaks out near McDonald’s between two groups of school children. The fight is finally broken up by security, but moments later, three plainclothes police officers handcuff a boy to a van. This is the story of two Bronxites: unruly residents fighting in front of boarded-up stores and damaged police vans, and in the background the new Yankees stadium, which will cost about $2.3 billion, looms. This stadium, which is supposed to be a symbol of the revitalization of the community, is instead a disgrace.

“One reason for their unhappiness surpasses all others: crime. “

Certainly, New York Republicans have gained a greater understanding of the electoral power of disorder. Last year, Trump explained the ” a plan to restore law and order ,” which included “a record investment in recruiting, retaining and training” police officers across the country, as well as strengthening liability protections for the deployment of legal action. More locally, this was a key element ofpart of Lee Zeldin’s 2021 gubernatorial campaign, where he compared the streets of New York to a “combat zone.” In the end, the Trump campaign lost to Kathy Hochul, but he did better than expected – a trend that has been seen among Republicans in almost every election cycle since Covid. The real test for the GOP, however, will come in the 2025 municipal election, after all, Trump will not be on the ballot, meaning that Republican candidates will not be able to rely on the his application. And already, the odds against the party seem great. On the one hand, the city is still very blue, with the number of registered Democrats going over it the Republicans about six to one.

Meanwhile, Harry Siegel explains that Republican outreach in New York is almost non-existent. “I don’t see any serious effort from people outside the Democratic machine to build organizations, structures and a strong argument against the party,” says Siegel, a writer for. The City. He says this means New Yorkers will once again have a choice between the “corrupt establishment” and “moderate progressives.” “Real Republicans don’t run,” he laments. “Those who were running have not thought how to run the city. » So it is not surprising that it is difficult to mobilize voters.

But, if a Republican was “bad” to run, or if it was a similar independent Jim Walden he could be persuaded to take the ticket, now was the time to take the ticket. Eric Adams, the current mayor under investigation for corruption charges and campaign financing, while opinion polls show that a majority of New Yorkers want him to resign. If Adams were forced to leave or if he resigned before the end of his term, it would trigger a special election, where candidates from any party could challenge the Democrats. It would be a small window of opportunity, but an insurgent candidate focused on three key issues – crime, the migrant crisis and housing – could certainly galvanize enough voters and turn around those historically low turnout rates. to an asset.

The 2024 election was not a Republican victory, after all, but a story of Democratic defeat. Trump may have added nearly 100,000 votes to his 2020 total, but more than half a million Democrats stayed home. For those who voted for Trump, their decision was often deeply personal. Almost everyone I spoke to said Trump was the first Republican they voted for, and many were still loyal Democrats further down the ballot. They see Trump not as a Republican, but as an outsider, meaning that GOP gains in the city are not at all certain after Trump leaves the political scene.

New York, therefore, is losing its way to the Democrats. And right now, it looks like that’s exactly what’s happening. Between a housing crisis, a migration crisis and crime still struggling to come down from its Covid-era peaks, the anger against the city’s liberal leadership is palpable. These five hundred thousand voters who did not exercise their right to vote sent a strong message to the party. And if the Democrats continue to ignore them, they risk losing them forever. “What more do I lose?” » Rosaria asked me. In next year’s election, we’ll see if anyone can get those voters to respond.