/ world today news/ Trust in institutions and economic optimism remained low, but are significantly higher compared to the time before the cabinet was formed.
The willingness to participate in protests against the government and the desire for early elections are also relatively small. The parties in power remain stable. Current political events also cause fears, but on the surface calm remains for now.
This is according to the summary of data from the Political and Economic Index – the independent research that has monitored dozens of indicators of public opinion every month for more than two decades, Gallup reported. The latest survey was conducted between January 30 and February 5 among 1,011 people and is representative of the country’s adult population.
When asked “Do you trust the government?” in February, 32% say “yes”, 56% – “no”, and the rest find it difficult to answer. This is the third month of a positive trend. Before the formation of the “Borisov 2” cabinet, the values of trust in the government had fallen to around 15%, and distrust was around and above 70%.
The typical reboot of trust in the government and parliament is observed for every new government. The Stanishev and Oresharski governments started with similar levels of trust. However, the initial levels of trust in the Saxe-Coburg and Borisov 1 cabinets were much higher – in the first months of their administration, these governments had trust of around and above 50%, which decisively outweighed distrust.
Traditionally in Bulgaria, distrust of institutions is higher than trust. The rare exceptions are around and after elections, elections in which enormous expectations are concentrated, such as those in 2001 or 2009. With a higher approval in our country enjoys a power that comes with entirely new faces. Cabinets that are based on compromise and coalitions do not start with the most favorable levels of popularity.
In this regard, the current data for the various electorates are also indicative. GERB supporters overwhelmingly support the current government (only a tenth of them are of the opposite opinion), while the electorates of the Reform Bloc and even more of the Patriotic Front show more sensitive shares of distrust towards the cabinet, reaching up to a third and even a second of those asked. The ABV electorate, on the other hand, is visibly devoid of enthusiasm in its attitude towards the “Borisov 2” cabinet.
These data show the price of political compromises – they always cause dissatisfaction. Symptomatic in this respect is the opinion about the parliament. In February, 21% expressed confidence in him, and 67% – distrust. The rest struggle or hesitate. Thus, the support for the parliament remains actually much lower than the total support for the governing parties. Here, too, the trend in the last 100 days is visibly positive, but the parliament remains one of the most disliked institutions.
The president remains with stable, but relatively low, levels of support from around a third of Bulgarians. However, more than 50% do not trust the institution. Still, Plevneliev is traditionally one of the most approved personalities in the country.
In general, a slight increase in the authority of the institutions has been noted in recent months. This is mainly due to the fact that supporters of the main party now declare positive evaluations – unlike before. However, these estimates still indicate some relief that a formula has been drawn up to stabilize the situation, and are not estimates of activity in one area or another. It remains to be seen whether and how well this cabinet fares in the public eye, and how lasting the invigorating effect of the new government will be.
The parties in power remain with stable support – with over 26% declared electoral attitudes for GERB – of all eligible voters, about 6% for the Reform Bloc, more than 3% for the Patriotic Front and nearly 3% for ABV. These parties would make it to parliament if the elections were held now. Along with them would be the BSP – with the declared electoral attitudes of less than 15% of Bulgarians, and the DPS – with the declared support of nearly 7%. “Ataka” has a chance to enter the next parliament with nearly 3% of all voters. The coming months may show whether there is actually some swelling of support for this party, related to its pro-Russian position or its radical opposition role. Mobilization of support can also be found with the Reform Bloc, but here too it is good to wait for the data from the coming months.
With the DPS, on the other hand, there seems to be some wavering in the peripheral electorate. This was due to remaining in opposition and losing conformist support.
The data, of course, cannot be read as a prediction of the election result, but only reflect trends in declarative attitudes. For example, at the declarative level, the DPS always shows a lower result compared to the one it can mobilize in a real election situation.
Apparently, the traditional reflex of society to support the winners is there. It is also shown by the personal ratings of the main political figures. As a rule, mistrust is higher here as well, and familiarity with some of the new ministers is still low and will gradually grow. But the representatives of the Reform Bloc and the Patriotic Front (Kunev, Kuneva, Simeonov, etc.) have been increasing their positive ratings faster than the negative ones in the last few months.
Here are some of the main figures: Kristalina Georgieva has 55% confidence in February, Yordanka Fandakova – with 44%. Growth under Petar Moskov continues and he already enjoys the trust of a third of Bulgarians. At similar levels are Boyko Borisov, Konstantin Penchev, Liliana Pavlova, Tomislav Donchev, Margarita Popova, Ivaylo Kalfin, etc.
Rankings in this case are irrelevant because different public figures have completely different tasks depending on their posts. And with the exception of Kristalina Georgieva, Yordanka Fandakova and, to some extent, Konstantin Penchev, all the others actually have a minus rating – when the positive and negative ratings are compared.
The logic of the post-election bonus for the winners is preserved both in terms of the parties and in terms of the main personalities. The last month, which was characterized by a decrease in scandals in the management formula, also had a positive impact.
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Polarized and public dissatisfaction with political options is growing. Mr. Gueorguiev, could you explain how this polarization impacts the effectiveness of the new government?
Welcome to World Today News! Today, we have with us two esteemed guests, Mr. Dimitar Gueorguiev, Political Analyst at Gallup, and Ms. Maria Dimitrova, Editor-in-Chief of Political Index.
Interviewer: Thank you both for joining us today. Our first question goes to you, Mr. Gueorguiev. According to the Political and Economic Index, trust in institutions and economic optimism have increased since the formation of the new government, albeit still remaining low. Can you elaborate on the reasons behind this trend and the factors that might have contributed to it?
Dimitar Gueorguiev: Thank you for having me. As per the latest survey, the trend of increased trust in government and institutions can be attributed to the fact that the new government has been able to bring some stability to the country. Voters tend to trust those who can maintain a semblance of control in challenging times, and the new cabinet’s focus on economic reforms has contributed to an increased sense of optimism among the public. Additionally, the absence of major scandals since their appointment has also played a role in improving their popularity.
Interviewer: Interesting. Now, moving on to you, Ms. Dimitrova. The survey also suggests that the willingness to participate in protests against the government is relatively low, as is the desire for early elections. Can you tell us more about these findings and what they indicate about the current political climate in the country?
Maria Dimitrova: Absolutely. While distrust towards institutions and the government remain high, the presence of a functioning administration has brought some calmness to the surface. The current political climate appears to be one of cautious optimism, with people hopeful that the new government can deliver on its promises. Early elections are not considered viable at the moment, given the lack of support for such a move. This is likely because of the exhaustion factor after several years of political turmoil and a desire for stability and continuity. However, there are still underlying fears and uncertainties that could potentially flare up depending on how effectively the government addresses key issues such as corruption and economic inequality.
Interviewer: That makes sense. Shifting gears slightly, the survey also points out that the parties in power remain
