SAVANNAH, Ga. (AP) — As the third named storm to emerge in November, Tropical Storm Sara serves as a reminder that the Atlantic hurricane season is not over yet. Sara formed in the western Caribbean Sea before making landfall on the northern coast of Honduras on Thursday, dumping torrential rains as it moved slowly over parts of Central America over the weekend. The National Hurricane Center in Miami said the storm could dump up to 40 inches (101.6 centimeters) of rain in some areas and is expected to move over Belize on Sunday before dissipating over the Yucatan Peninsula early Monday.
Sara follows two other named storms this month. Tropical Storm Patty brought heavy rain to the Azores and dissipated without making landfall. Hurricane Rafael then hit Jamaica and the Cayman Islands before passing through Cuba as a Category 3 storm.
This has resulted in an unusually active final month for the hurricane season, when forecasters see a named storm every year or two. And the 2024 season still has two weeks left.
Here are some things to know about November’s hurricanes.
Why does hurricane season usually slow down in November?
Hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico officially runs from June 1 to November 30.
Although named storms are known to form before and after that six-month period, hurricane season reflects the months when weather conditions are most favorable for producing tropical storms and hurricanes.
Ocean temperatures must reach at least 26 Celsius (79 degrees Fahrenheit) to fuel hurricanes. Hurricane season is also when the upper atmosphere tends to have less wind shear, or changes in wind speed and direction that tear apart hurricanes.
Those hostile winds tend to increase later in the fall, making it difficult for storms to form in November, said Levi Silvers, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University.
“We have the water temperatures to allow these storms to form,” Silvers said. “But it is becoming less and less likely that we will get the right winds.”
How unusual are hurricanes in November?
Based on the 30-year period from 1991 to 2020, November typically sees a tropical storm every year or two. Storms that become hurricanes are rarer during the last month of the season, with one generally occurring every two years, according to the hurricane center.
Since 1851, a total of 125 tropical storms have been recorded during November, said Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami. About half of those storms, 63, became hurricanes. And 12 strengthened into major hurricanes with winds above 110 mph (177 kph).
Rafael earlier this month forced the evacuation of 283,000 people in Cuba and destroyed 460 homes. It was the first November hurricane in the Atlantic basin since 2022, when the season concluded with three storms. One of them, Hurricane Nicole, became the first November hurricane to make landfall in Florida since 1985.
Only two other November hurricanes have hit the United States, in 1861 and 1935, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
What are some notable November storms?
Since 1953, there have been seven November hurricanes devastating enough for their names to be retired, McNoldy said.
The latest were Hurricanes Eta and Iota, both Category 4 storms when they hit the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua two weeks apart in November 2020. The back-to-back hurricanes were blamed for a combined total of 239 deaths and $8.2 billion in damages in Central America.
They hit at the end of the most active hurricane season on record with 30 named storms. The busy 2020 season exhausted the alphabetical list of storm names for the year by mid-September. Later storms, including Eta and Iota, were identified using Greek letters.
Other destructive November hurricanes that had their names retired were Otto in 2016, Paloma in 2008, Noel in 2007, Michelle in 2001 and Lenny in 1999, according to McNoldy.
Is climate change extending the threat of hurricanes?
There have been 18 named storms since 2000 that formed outside of the official hurricane season, either before June or after November. One of them, Hurricane Alex, formed on January 12, 2016.
Does that mean human-caused climate change is lengthening hurricane season?
“The role that climate change could play in extending the boundaries of the traditional hurricane season is ocean warming,” McNoldy said, noting that sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean have remained unusually warm until mid-November.
However, scientists still have unresolved questions about what influence climate change might have on the seasonal wind shear patterns that tend to keep tropical cyclones at bay outside the official hurricane season, Silvers said.
“The idea that we are seeing more hurricanes with climate change is still quite controversial,” Silvers said. “I think what seems clear is that we have had many high-impact hurricanes and rapidly intensifying hurricanes. “It could be that with climate change, you don’t get more hurricanes, but you get stronger hurricanes.”
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This story was translated from English by an AP editor with the help of a generative artificial intelligence tool.
What are the key historical events along with their impacts in November hurricanes, and how have these shaped our understanding of storm preparedness in the region?
1. Can you discuss the significance of Tropical Storm Sara forming in the western Caribbean Sea and making landfall on the northern coast of Honduras this November? How does this tie into the overall hurricane season trends for the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico?
2. Historically, how common are hurricanes in the month of November? What factors contribute to the decrease in storm activity during this time of year, and what makes this November’s activity more exceptional?
3. Can you delve into some of the notable November hurricanes that have occurred in the past? What impacts did they have on the regions they affected, and why were their names retired?
4. As we continue to see more named storms forming outside of the traditional hurricane season, how might climate change be contributing to these unusual events? Are there any ongoing debates or uncertainties among scientists about this issue?
5. Lastly, given the potential risks posed by late-season hurricanes like Sara, what steps can individuals and communities take to prepare for these types of events? Are there any lessons that can be learned from previous storms like Otto, Paloma, Noel, Michelle, and Lenny?
