Tropical Storm Sara continues slowly, moving toward the west just north of Honduras. Sarah will continue to move barely through the day on Saturday and Sunday. On Sunday, it will start to take a more west-northwestern turn, traveling over the Yucatán Peninsula. Sara will make landfall in Belize early Sunday and travel over the southern mountains of this country. The southern region of Belize is mountainous, with the highest peak, Doyle’s Delight, reaching slightly over 3600 feet.
The high terrain, other portions of Guatemala, and the Mexican state of Campeche will damage Sara’s structure. By the time it emerges over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, Sara should be, at the very most, a tropical depression. Parts of Belize, including a big chunk of the Peninsula and Guatemala and El Salvador, could receive between 10 and 15 inches of rain. These amounts of rain could trigger flash floods, landslides, and mudslides over the mountainous terrain.
Moisture wraps around! What’s after the Gulf of Mexico?
The timing is aligning in our favor. There is a trough that is currently moving over California. This upper low-pressure system will dig down deeper and more southward over northern Mexico early in the week. On the surface, a low-pressure system will develop (with the help of the upper-level low) over New Mexico. This low-pressure system will come with a strong cold front. It has enough strength to push Sara’s remnant fast toward the east, and the increasing wind shear will prevent Sara from redeveloping.
Timing of impacts to South Carolina
The cold front will absorb Sara’s remnants. The moisture will quickly travel over and wrap around the Gulf of Mexico, arriving in South Carolina late Tuesday night and moving from west to east. Most moisture will break, and the most intense chunk will stay south of the Palmetto State. Nonetheless, there could be some stray scattered showers and an isolated strong storm.
Residents also need to monitor the evolution of this system, as there could still be some changes. Remember that if the moisture moves further north, there could be heavier showers over our state around midweek. We will continue to monitor this situation and bring you updates throughout the weekend and next week.
—————————————————————————
Sara barely moves; How will it affect South Carolina next week?
Tropical Storm Sara continues to move slowly westward, just north of Honduras. Sarah will continue to move only during the day on Saturday and Sunday. On Sunday, it will begin to take a more west-northwest turn, passing through the Yucatan Peninsula. Sara will make landfall in Belize early Sunday and will pass through the southern mountains of this country. The southern region of Belize is mountainous, with the highest peak, Doyle’s Delight, reaching just over 3,600 feet.
The high terrain, other parts of Guatemala, and the Mexican state of Campeche will do a lot of damage to Sara’s frame. By the time it emerges over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, Sara should be, at best, a tropical depression. Parts of Belize, including much of the peninsula, as well as Guatemala and El Salvador, could receive 10 to 15 inches of rain. These amounts of rain could cause flash flooding, landslides and mudslides over the mountainous terrain.
The humidity envelops! What comes after the Gulf of Mexico?
Time is aligning in our favor. There is a trough currently moving over California. This upper low pressure system will sink deeper and further south over northern Mexico early in the week. At the surface, a low pressure system (aided by the upper level low) will develop over New Mexico. This low pressure system will come with a strong cold front. It has enough strength to push Sara’s remnant quickly eastward, and the increasing wind shear will prevent Sara from developing again.
Timing of impacts in South Carolina
The cold front will absorb the remnants of Sara. Moisture will travel quickly and envelop the Gulf of Mexico, reaching South Carolina late Tuesday night and moving from west to east. Most of the moisture will break, with the heaviest portion remaining south of the Palmetto State. However, there could be some scattered showers and an isolated strong storm.
Residents should also keep an eye on the evolution of this system, as some changes could still occur. Keep in mind that if moisture moves further north, heavier rain could occur in our state by mid-week. We will continue to monitor this situation and provide updates over the weekend and into next week.
