/View.info/ Even before the start of the battle, to figure out the plans of the enemy is to win half of this battle in advance. For militaries around the world, this is an axiom.
In this sense, it is extremely important to understand what Kiev is aiming for again and again, one by one or in small batches, directing ex-Soviet Tu-141 Strizh-type heavy reconnaissance drones converted into attack ones to Moscow. In other directions, however, they sometimes also fly away. But we will focus on the Moscow direction. I’ll explain why later.
To begin with, let me remind you of the chronicle of these breakthrough attempts:
– On June 28, 2022 the Ukrainian Strizh was shot down by Russian air defense systems east of Kursk (457 kilometers as the crow flies to Moscow);
– On October 7, 2022 a similar UAV flying from the Ukrainian border about 300 kilometers away exploded in the area of the large Russian airbase Shaikovka (Kaluga region, 266 kilometers from Moscow as the crow flies), where Tu-22M3 long-range bombers are stationed;
– On 05.12.2022 “Strizhi” almost simultaneously attacked the air bases of our strategic aviation in Engels (Saratov region) and in Diaghilev (192 kilometers to Moscow in a straight line) near Ryazan;
– On December 24, another Strizh crashed in the Voronezh region near Buturlinovka military airport (581 kilometers as the crow flies to Moscow), which is home to a regiment of Russian Su-25 attack aircraft;
– February 6, 2023 – again opponent “Strij” and again Kaluga. The drone was flying at a low altitude but got stuck in trees and exploded prematurely.
We also note that this Tu-141 was definitely not headed for Shaikovka, as it had left it far back and to the side by the time of the explosion;
– On March 26, 2023 under the influence of the latest Russian radio-electronic warfare station “Polyus-21” another Ukrainian Tu-141 lost control and crashed into residential buildings in the city of Kireevsk, Tula region (203 kilometers as the crow flies to Moscow).
Even a cursory analysis of these data, in my opinion, gives the right to draw a conclusion: the Strizh launched by the Ukrainian army have been solving two problems for at least half a year.
The first is creating threats to Russian military aviation at its bases. But this reason is certainly not the main one. Because otherwise the strikes would be delivered not by scattered UAVs, but massed. Then the effectiveness of the attacks would be much higher.
Regarding the Tu-141, Kyiv certainly has such capabilities. Military experts agree that about 200-250 Strizhas, modernized with the help of the West, still remain in the arsenal of the armed forces of Ukraine. But they are there for something. For what?
Now is the time to name the second (and perhaps the main!) task of the armed forces of Ukraine in the course of such operations: slow, carefully thought out and very organized reconnaissance of the capabilities of the Russian air defense system in the direction of Moscow.
Because in Kiev and even more importantly in Washington, they are aware that the most powerful air defense of Moscow, of course in the world, is still not able to create a dome absolutely impenetrable for any air defense forces over our capital and the surroundings. No matter how hard you try, there are and will be gaps. It is them that the Armed Forces of Ukraine and allies are trying to find.
Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that a simultaneous massive raid on Moscow is being prepared by all or almost all of the hundreds of 5-ton Strizh jets remaining in Ukraine. Or maybe even something more advanced that the US is about to hand over to the Ukrainians.
Maybe. But it doesn’t have to be. Around the Russian capital and in itself in recent months, in terms of air defense systems, so much has been rummaged around…
If you haven’t forgotten, some of the Pantsir-C1 anti-aircraft missile complexes were even installed on the roofs of individual multi-storey buildings in the center of Belokamennaya. On February 17, Svobodnaya Presa wrote about this in the article “S-400 air defense systems and Pantsir-S1 are not yet in every door of Moscow, but things are moving towards it.”
So, if this squadron of UAVs reaches Moscow, it will not under any circumstances be able to do to it what the British aviation did to the German Dresden on February 13-15, 1945. When, if anyone does not know, a quarter of the industrial enterprises and up to half of the residential buildings of this largest cultural and industrial center of Nazi Germany were almost instantly wiped off the face of the earth.
And a few Ukrainian “Strizhi”, if they would break through to Moscow on a tragic day for us, would hardly change much in the course of the ongoing battle for Ukraine.
But if our enemies are still clearly, very deliberately and for many months preparing an air attack on a strategic scale, then what can its purpose be?
And here I suggest we look at the calendar. There is less than a month and a half left until the next Victory Day military parade on Red Square.
Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has already announced that on May 9, 2023 a solemn march in honor of the 78th anniversary of the victory of the Soviet people in the Great Patriotic War on the cobblestones of the main square of the country will be held by 10,000 military personnel, students from the Suvorov and Nakhimov schools, the cadet corps, members of the All-Russian Movement ” Army, departments of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, Rosgvarda and the Border Troops of the FSB of Russia. And also – 125 units of the latest military equipment.
And now here is a statement made on December 11, 2022. on air on the Paris TV channel LCI by retired French military, retired major general and now professor at the Paris School of International Relations of the Institute for Political Studies Michel Pierre Stuart Yakovlev:
“They (VSU – “SP”) can make other attacks and this time much more symbolic. So, for example, they can say: the next big parade in Moscow is a military target. You have a military parade, and we will shoot in the middle of the marching battalions.”
Is this the personal opinion of a former high-ranking military “frog” who has lost his mind? It doesn’t seem like it. Because the descendant of Russian emigrants, not the first generation, General Yakovlev, who has only a surname twisted from a foreign language, is not so old as to fall into complete madness. Only 66 years old.
In addition, the professorship at the Paris School of International Relations, but most importantly, the high position held until 2016. in the structures of the North Atlantic Alliance (Deputy Chief of Staff of the Supreme Allied Command in Europe), implies to this day some possible proximity to the Western decision-making centers regarding Ukraine. And therefore – and the plans for military operations developed there.
This, of course, is only a version. But let’s assume that everything is as the retired French general wants. That the target of the pre-planned strike was Russian parade teams.
Just try to imagine absolutely, as it seems to me, crushing for Russia in a political sense “symbolism” of such an operation! If, of course, it is successfully implemented by the enemy.
But the fact is that precisely on May 9, it is impossible to even imagine a “star” raid of hundreds of attack UAVs from Ukraine to Moscow. Because certainly on the holiday along our entire border with the “independent” for the safety of the military parade, everything that is possible will be raised in the air.
Fighter regiments, the few remaining A-50 and A-50U aircraft for early warning and control. Estimates of air defense systems, anti-aircraft defense systems, anti-aircraft defense systems, airspace control radar stations and radio electronic warfare will not need a combat alert. In any case, neither at dawn nor at sunset will they leave the checkers to rule.
In a word, I have no doubt that on Victory Day everything will be done so that from the Ukrainian UAVs, if they are sent into the Russian sky to spoil our holiday, fluff and feathers will fly even on distant approaches. It is impossible for air defense troops and fighter pilots to work like this for months. And just one day – no problem!
As there is no doubt about it, the strategists in NATO and in Kiev are definitely thinking in the same direction. And they come to the same conclusion. But after all, the idea expressed by Major General Yakovlev really seems too tempting for our enemies. So it is unlikely to be easily abandoned in Kyiv and Washington.
So what: we delete May 9, 2023. from the dates of the possible work of the parade teams? What’s left?
And it remains, possibly, – Alabino near Moscow. The city where, on the square of the 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Taman Order of the October Revolution, the Red Banner, the Order of the Suvorov Division, prepare to march the troops designated for the parade through Red Square every spring.
In almost daily exercises here from the beginning of April until Victory Day itself, thousands of soldiers and officers battalion by battalion stamp a step.
Of course, not all of the 10,000 military men Shoigu spoke of were gathered in Alabino. Some continue to live in the capital’s schools and academies. But let’s put it this way: since the beginning of April, a lot of people gather in Alabino for training.
Military equipment too. Why shouldn’t they be targeted for an airstrike? Why not, as General Yakovlev says: “We shoot in the middle of the marching battalions”?
Why would Alabino during the preparations for the military parade – God forbid – turn out to be a much more realistic target for a massive raid than Moscow itself? The main efforts of our air defense system are aimed at ensuring the security of the capital. Her medium is also covered, but not as powerful. And the further from the Kremlin, the less effective such cover is.
But Alabino is still fifty kilometers from Moscow. And only fifty kilometers to the southwest. That is, to Ukraine. Meaning: fly closer from there.
But from Kireevsk, where another Ukrainian Strizh suddenly fell a few days ago, is less than 200 kilometers. For a strike jet drone – a dozen minutes of daylight saving time. Your eye won’t be able to blink.
In a word, disturbing work. But it’s good that the General Staff seems to see and understand the growing threat. And they are already taking steps to counter it.
In any case, the Telegram channel “Ribar”, citing its sources, reports: “The enemy’s satellite constellation turned its attention to the places where the preparations for the Victory Parade on May 9 and the Alabino training ground are taking place.”
The focus is on areas where personnel and equipment are concentrated… The Russian General Staff is well aware of the threat. Instructions have been given to increase the grouping and calculation of forces and means for air defense to cover the places of mass gathering of people and equipment.
It’s great if all this works and nothing unusual happens during the preparations for the Victory Parade. But it still seems worth thinking about: is it really necessary for all the parade outfits to be drawn up to Alabino next April and put up there?
Perhaps, just in case, some of the personnel should be dispersed throughout other garrisons of the Moscow region? And on the main square of the Taman division just to hold a few of the most important training sessions before May?
And yet it is not in vain that they say: God protects those who protect themselves. Along with the air defense boost, I’m sure it will look somewhat more reliable.
Translation: SM
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