WSJ: Trump’s election won’t change US-Russia relations much

The warm words that Russian leader Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump said to each other do not mean a warming of relations between the two countries. The interests of Moscow and Washington are still too different, writes the “Wall Street Journal” (WSJ).

US President Donald Trump has registered himself as a salesman, able to use his warm relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the conflict in Ukraine, to reduce tensions between the two powers change the world’s largest nuclear power plant and change global politics.

But this confident image goes against what the two leaders did in the past and with the new geopolitical reality. During Trump’s first term, they failed to agree on one issue, from arms control to Ukraine, and after he left office, the gap between the two sides only widened.

The Russian leader spoke warmly of Trump after his election, even calling him a “brave man” last week. But the Kremlin denies that the two leaders have spoken since the election, despite the fact that the Washington Post published a phone call last week.

For the first time since the fall of the Soviet Union, the stakes are so high. Russia and the US are embroiled in the escalating conflict in Ukraine, and Moscow has been accused of sabotage across Europe, including secret plans to US-bound cargo and passenger planes caught fire.

In general, Putin is trying to shift the balance of global power by strengthening a coalition of America’s rivals, including China, Iran and North Korea.

Both Putin and Trump want to strengthen their position ahead of the difficult upcoming talks on Ukraine, but everything will depend on whether Trump can turn good words into concrete diplomatic advances.

When he won the 2016 election, Russian lawmakers poured champagne in the halls of parliament, anticipating a new era in US-Russian relations under the leadership of the businessman who spent months praising Putin on the way the campaign.

The Kremlin didn’t even retaliate when Barack Obama fired 35 Russian diplomats accused of meddling in the election before handing Trump power. When the new president came, Russia hoped to turn the page on relations.

But during Trump’s first term as president, on the other hand, they got worse. The two presidents could not agree on key issues such as arms control, security cooperation and continued US aid to Ukraine.

Russia was seeking an agreement on strategic nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles, as well as an agreement that would satisfy Moscow’s demands that Ukraine be neutral and not join NATO.

Trump’s efforts to make deals with Putin have been somewhat hampered by allegations of his ties to the Kremlin amid the hacking attack on Hillary Clinton, his opponent in the 2016 race, only intensified after these charges were dismissed.

Kurt Volkerwho was Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine, that the president-elect’s warm words to Putin masked his mercantile tactics in talks with world leaders.

Trump avoids demonizing the person he is communicating with because he wants to make a deal. “If you look at his first term as president, you will see that he spoke warmly about Putin.Volcker said. “At the same time, he lifted the arms embargo on Ukraine, kicked the Russians out of San Francisco and declared it a spy operation. About 80 intelligence officers were kicked out of New York and Washington. “he added.

Trump and Putin have now returned to friendly public rhetoric. Moscow congratulated Trump on his victory, and the latter once again called the Kremlin leader tough and smart during the election campaign. Such sentiments affect Trump’s popularity among average Russians, who are happy with his electoral victory to offset their disdain for the United States. But their friendship hides a more serious tension.

For months, Russian troops have been pushing deep into Ukraine on a broad front, seizing territory that Moscow expects to keep as part of any peace deal.

According to US officials, Moscow is confident of winning, making negotiations impossible. “Putin is not ready for meaningful talks on a peace plan, because he won’t make any concessions at all. Full stop”said the analyst Andrey Kolesnikov. “He believes he has enough financial and emotional resources to move forward.”he added.

However, Putin has reason to fear Trump’s broader political goals, which could complicate Russia’s military efforts.

Trump’s pick of Special Forces veteran Mike Waltz as national security adviser could be a double-edged sword for Putin. On the one hand, the correspondent criticized the amount of American aid to Ukraine and asked Europe to contribute more. But he also warned that Washington could lift restrictions on the use of long-range US weapons for Kiev’s strikes on Russian territory if Putin does not come to the negotiating table.

At the same time, Trump promises encouraged US oil drillingwhich will cause a glut in the global oil market – a vital source of income for the Russian economy, which is already suffering losses due to heavy Western sanctions. The Kremlin’s war economy is showing signs of overheating due to labor shortages.

Among other things Trump wants to increase pressure on North Koreawhich became Moscow’s strategic ally during its conflict with Ukraine, supplying it with millions of artillery shells and, more recently, troops on the front lines in western Russia.

The president-elect is also threatening to hold another Kremlin figure directly responsible — Iran gives him dronesabout his minions wreaking havoc in the Middle East.

Trump will strengthen ties with Israelwhich said they disabled Iran’s air defense systems and damaged missile production facilities in a recent strike.

For now, however, Moscow holds the advantage and its troops are moving deeper and deeper into Ukraine. Trump’s former national security advisers warn that Putin could try to lure the president-elect into making a better deal for Moscow at the expense of Kiev.

The praise that the two leaders shower on each other sometimes makes their political opponents suspect that there is more to their relationship than the public facts.

In a recent book by Bob Woodward it is reported that he and Putin have spoken by phone seven times since Trump left the White House in 2021. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied this information, and Trump himself only said that such a thing would be “reasonable” on his part.

The two leaders have always expressed interest in personal meetings. The first of these took place at the G20 summit in 2017, a few months after Trump’s inauguration. The leaders had planned a short meeting but ended up talking for more than 2 hours before speaking again during dinner later in the day. Other meetings followed, including at the Helsinki summit, where Trump provoked anger in the US by saying that he believed Putin’s assurances, contrary to US intelligence assessments, that Moscow had not to participate in the 2016 election.

Elon Muskwho was one of Trump’s biggest financial backers during his campaign, they also maintained regular contact with Putin and Kremlin representatives. Trump named Musk co-chairman of a new department to improve government efficiency, although it is unclear how much influence he had on the new administration. Last week, for example, he took an unscheduled part in a phone call between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Trump has pledged to end hostilities in Ukraine before he takes office in January, but Putin has long outlined the conditions under which he would be willing to start talks. In fact, Trump has several simple ways to bring it back down.

In addition to major territorial concessions with Ukraine and promises not to join NATO, Putin wants to be freed from US sanctions. The president does not have the power to recall most of them; that is what Congress will be dealing with, and after the election it is likely that the Republicans will control both houses.

“Putin may not mind expanding his diplomatic ties, but he’s not sure if he’ll moderate his behavior”said a former US diplomat who worked in Russia. “He thinks he’s doing great on the battlefieldhe added.

According to BGNES