Nuclear weapons, Volodymr Zelenskyj | Wild speculation about Zelenskyj and nuclear weapons

Nettavisen has asked two nuclear scientists whether Ukraine is capable of developing nuclear weapons in a very short time. The background is the wild speculation that has been put forward in the German and British media in recent days and weeks.

The speculation is related to Ukraine’s ability and, in particular, willingness to acquire nuclear weapons.

According to speculation, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is said to have issued an ultimatum that roughly reads: “If Ukraine is not allowed to become a member of NATO, we will go for nuclear weapons.”

The Ukrainian authorities deny that President Zelenskyy has issued such an ultimatum.

Read also: This is the myth of NATO’s broken promises to the Russians

The Times writes on Thursday this week that Ukraine has both the knowledge and the resources to develop a nuclear bomb within months. The bomb can have an explosive power one-tenth that of Fat Man, the atomic bomb that was detonated over Nagasaki in 1945.

The newspaper refers to a report prepared by a Ukrainian think tank for the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine signs X that they are bound by the non-proliferation agreement, and indicate that they do not “possess, develop or intend to acquire nuclear weapons”.

– It can lift seven tons of plutonium

To make a nuclear weapon, you need highly enriched uranium or plutonium.

Ukraine does not have the facilities or resources to enrich uranium to so-called weapons grade. In contrast, the country has access to plutonium.

Although Ukraine got rid of its 1,900 nuclear warheads in 1996, according to

In 1994, Russia, Great Britain and the United States signed the so-called Budapest Memorandum in which Russia undertook to “respect the independence, sovereignty and borders of Ukraine”. At the same time, Ukraine gave up 1,900 nuclear warheads in exchange for these promises from Moscow. Russia’s annexation of the Crimean peninsula in 2014, and especially the major invasion in 2022, are obvious violations of this agreement.

“/>, they have accordingly The Times yet control of nine active nuclear reactors.

Ukraine has extensive experience in making nuclear weapons, and they reportedly get access to seven tons of plutoniumaccording to the allegations.

Oleksij Jizjak at the National Institute of Strategic Studies in Ukraine is one of the co-authors behind the report. It claims that “the amount of material is sufficient for hundreds of nuclear warheads with a tactical strength of several kilotons”.

But at about one-tenth the explosive power of the Fat Man, “it would be enough to destroy an entire Russian air base or nearby military, industrial or logistical facilities,” Jizjak says, according to British media reports.

Read also: German nuclear scientist warns: Trump’s victory increases the risk of nuclear war

– Can, in theory, make dozens of nuclear weapons

Nettavisen asks one of Norway’s leading nuclear scientists how credible the analysis is, and to what extent Ukraine has the ability to develop nuclear weapons, and if so, how quickly. to do that.

FFI’s chief researcher, Halvor Kippe, says that Ukraine can theoretically develop nuclear weapons after several years.

– Then they can make a lot of money back, says Kippe to Nettavisen.

But Kipp rejects a bunch of warnings. Kippe says that every country that has nuclear power reactors for several decades is sitting on hundreds of tons of spent fuel.

– Such fuel contains one to two percent plutonium when it comes from normal operation, he says.

– For the first several years (from 20 to 30 years), the fuel is stored in pools next to the reactor. There it is actively cooled until the radioactivity has decreased enough to be stored in dry warehouses without active cooling, says Kippe.

Kippe says Ukraine has one central dry storage facility for spent fuel, which is in Zaporizhzhya. But here it is the Russians who are in control right now.

– So these tons of plutonium are tied up in spent fuel, and a large part of the total they produced is controlled by Russia, says Kippe.

Kippe points out several challenges to Ukraine’s eventual nuclear weapons development:

• You need to have a so-called reprocessing facility to be able to extract plutonium from spent fuel, which Ukraine does not have.
• If Ukraine, contrary to opinion, sets up a reprocessing plant and separates the plutonium, most of it will not be of “weapons grade”.
• This means that they must expect less explosive power than the plutonium produced for that purpose. But more than one kiloton is not inconceivable.
• In addition, they had to deal with challenges with heat generation from the radioactivity in the plutonium, which is stronger for that type of plutonium than for military plutonium.
• But they could still make weapons with high explosive power. Note that even ten percent of the Hiroshima bomb corresponds to about 1,500 tons of TNT.

Method of delivery

Nuclear weapons require some method of delivery. Kippe says rocket manufacturer Yuzhmash has previously produced engines for Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles (SS-18) in Dnipro, Ukraine.

– As far as I know, it has been a long time since they stopped that production, but there is probably a lot of knowledge about ballistic missiles, especially engines, in Ukraine. Not going that far if the target is Russia, he says.

– I think we have to read these analyzes from the point of view of influence, emphasizing Kippe.

The German newspaper Bild wrote last month that Ukraine is considering building weapons of mass destruction. The newspaper cited an anonymous Ukrainian source.

The speculation also gained momentum in mid-October. Zelenskyj said on October 17 that he had told Donald Trump that Ukraine must become a member of NATO or give up its own nuclear deterrent, writing News week.

Zelenskyy later clarified the statement, saying that Ukraine has no plans to acquire nuclear weapons. The Ukrainian president said the statement was intended to emphasize failure

In 1994, Russia, Great Britain and the United States signed the so-called Budapest Memorandum in which Russia undertook to “respect the independence, sovereignty and borders of Ukraine”. At the same time, Ukraine gave up 1,900 nuclear warheads in exchange for these promises from Moscow. Russia’s annexation of the Crimean peninsula in 2014, and especially the major invasion in 2022, are obvious violations of this agreement.

“/>.

The German newspaper Bild writes that Zelenskyj made a terrible message at the EU summit in Brussels.

According to Bild, Zelenskyj is said to have said that NATO must quickly accept Ukraine as a member, or Ukraine will again become a nuclear power, writing The Daily Mail.

– We officially contradict the statements from anonymous sources in the Bild article regarding Ukraine’s alleged plans to develop weapons of mass destruction, says the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine in a reportwhich is reproduced by The independent Kyiv.

– I can’t do it in secret

Nettavisen asks nuclear weapons researcher Fabian Hoffmann at the University of Oslo if he thinks Ukraine is capable of developing nuclear weapons in a very short time.

– The short answer is that Ukraine simply cannot assemble a nuclear bomb, and they probably cannot do it secretly, says Hoffmann to Nettavisen.

“Ukraine’s nuclear weapons would undoubtedly be a very credible deterrent in a post-war world. The problem for Kyiv is that there are significant technical, political and military obstacles to establishing such a nuclear deterrent,” Hoffmann wrote in his mail at Substack last month.