China can win the most important technology race in history against the US

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Just a few years ago, such a scenario there would be similar improbable. But there now appears to be a realistic chance that China will overtake the United States in a race that, arguably, the United States has defined. So who will land on the moon first and does it really matter who gets there first?

NASA‘s lunar program is called Artemis. The United States has involved international and trade partners to share the costs. NASA designed a plan for American boots to set foot on the lunar soil again over three missions. In November 2022, NASA launched the spacecraft Orion on a journey around the Moon without a crew on board. This was the Artemis I mission.

The Artemis II missionscheduled for late 2025, will be similar to Artemis I, but this time Orion will carry four astronauts. They will not land; that will be left for Artemis III mission. For this third mission, NASA will send a man and the first woman to the lunar surface. Although their names have not yet been revealed, one of them will be the first person of color on the Moon.

Image of an astronaut from the Artemis III mission on the Moon. (POT)

Artemis III was originally scheduled to launch this yearbut the calendar has suffered several delays. A December 2023 report stated that there are one chance in three that Artemis III will not launch until after February 2028. Currently, the mission is scheduled for no earlier than September 2026.

Meanwhile, the space program chino it seems advance at a good pace, without errors or significant delays. In April 2024, those responsible for the Chinese space program announced that the country was on its way to taking its astronauts on the moon by 2030.

It’s a notable progress for a country that launched its first astronaut in 2003. China has been operating space stations since 2011 and has been surpassing important and challenging milestones throughout its Chang’e lunar exploration program.

These robotic missions have returned samples from the surface, even from the far side of the Moon. They have tested technology that could be crucial to landing humans on the Moon. The next mission will land at the lunar south polea region that attracts great interest due to the presence of ice from agua in shadowy craters.

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This water could be used for life support of a lunar base and converted into rocket fuel. Producing fuel on the Moon would be cheaper than bringing it from Earth, making lunar exploration more affordable. It is for these reasons that Artemis III will land at the south pole. It is also the planned location for bases led by the United States and China.

On September 28, 2024, China showed the space suit that their takionauts will take on their moonwalks. The suit is designed to protect the wearer against extreme temperature variations and unfiltered solar radiation. It is light and flexible. Is this an indication that China is already overtaking the United States in one aspect of the moon race? The company in charge of manufacturing Artemis’s lunar suit, Axiom Space, is having to modify various aspects of the reference design provided to them by NASA.

The lunar landing module that will carry American astronauts from lunar orbit to the surface is also delayed. In 2021, Elon Musk’s SpaceX won the contract to build this vehicle. It is based on the Starship de SpaceXwhich consists of a 50-meter-long ship that is launched with the most powerful rocket ever built.

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On October 13, 2024, Starship achieved a successful fifth test flight. But several challenging steps are still required before the Human Landing System Starship can take astronauts to the lunar surface. The Starship cannot fly directly to the Moon. It must first refuel in Earth orbit (using other Starships that act as fuel “tankers”). SpaceX needs to demonstrate refueling and conduct an uncrewed test landing on the Moon before Artemis III can proceed.

Additionally, during Artemis I, Orion’s heat shield suffered considerable damage returning at high speed through the Earth’s atmosphere. NASA engineers have been working on a solution ahead of the Artemis II mission.

Too complicated?

Some critics They argue that Artemis is too complex, referring to the intricate way in which astronauts and the lunar module are brought together in lunar orbit, the large number of commercial partners operating independently, and the number of Starship launches required. Depending on who you ask, it will take between four y fifteen Starship flights to complete refueling for Artemis III.

Former NASA administrator Michael Griffin ha defended a simpler strategybroadly similar to the way China hopes to achieve its moon landing. His vision sees NASA relying on traditional commercial partners like Boeing, rather than “newcomers” like SpaceX.

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However, simpler is not necessarily better or cheaper. The program Apollo It was simpler, but almost three times more expensive than Artemis. SpaceX has been more successful, and cheaper, than Boeing when sending crews to the International Space Station.

Orion and the Moon. The Artemis I mission was generally successful, but Orion’s heat shield was damaged. POT. New technology is not developed in simple, proven approaches, but in bold efforts that break barriers. He James Webb Space Telescope It is highly complex, with its folding mirror and far-off position in space, but it allows astronomers to peer into the depths of the universe like no other telescope can. Innovation is especially crucial considering future ambitions such as asteroid mining and establishing a colony on Mars.

Does it matter if the first selenonauts of the 21st century are Chinese or Americans? This is largely a question about the relationship between governments and their citizensy between nations.

Los Democratic governments depend on public support to secure financing for expensive, long-term projects, and prestige is a major selling point. But prestige in a 21st century moon race will be earned by doing things right, not before. run again to the Moon could be costly, both financially and in terms of risk to human life.

Governments must set an example and act responsibly. Peace, inclusivity and sustainability should be guiding principles. Returning to the Moon should not be about dominance or superiority. It should be an opportunity to show that we can improve regarding how we have behaved on Earth until now.

Will he speak English or Mandarin the next human being to walk on the Moon? In total, 12 Americans They landed on the lunar surface between 1969 and 1972. Now, both the United States and China are preparing to send humans there again this decade.

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