When might the Chicago area see its first snowflakes? The answer could come just in time for the start of the holiday season.
According to the National Weather Service, Chicago usually sees its first trace of snow, defined as snowfall of less than a tenth of an inch, on October 31. That same data also showed that the city typically sees its first measurable snowfall, defined as any amount of snow of a tenth of an inch or more, on Nov. 18.
This year, the city has yet to see either, as of November 15.
However, it is not unexpected, as predictions have shown that temperatures in the area are, and will likely continue to be, above average for this time of year.
The latest modeling from the Climate Prediction Center showed there is a “70 to 80% chance that the city, along with the rest of Illinois, will see above-average temperatures between November 14 and 22.”
Still, the first snowflakes could soon be on the horizon, but it will all depend on how a wet system sets up.
An active weather pattern arrives starting Monday night, NBC 5 meteorologist Alicia Roman said this week, bringing rain into Tuesday morning. Monday and Tuesday will likely see warmer temperatures before a big drop on Thursday, he said, as the chance of the season’s first flakes increases.
According to NBC 5 meteorologist Iisha Scott, there is a chance for some snow to mix with rain Wednesday night and Thursday, but “that depends on how much moisture remains as colder air moves in.”
However, as of Friday, the system seemed to be trending more toward rain, and Scott said even if there are a few snowflakes, it won’t be many.
By the end of the next 10 days, temperatures are expected to have dropped to between 30 and 40 degrees.
For those curious, the last time Chicago left no trace of snow to start the season was December 5, 1999. The most recent first measurable snowfall of the year occurred in December 2021, when the city didn’t see a tenth of an inch of snow or more until three days after Christmas.
