Trump distrusts climate change, will he hand over global leadership to China?

Trump starts to abolish IRA… threatens to withdraw from Paris Agreement
“China may grow rapidly while the U.S. falls behind.”
Emerging industrialized and developing countries, dependence on China for low-carbon technology ↑

▲U.S. President-elect Donald Trump (left) and Chinese President Xi Jinping. AFP Yonhap News

Ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, there are predictions that China could achieve world ‘climate leadership’. President-elect Trump is a leader who denies the scientific facts of climate change.inflation There are growing concerns about a regression in climate policy, such as by proclaiming the abolition of the IRA. There is a possibility that China, taking advantage of this gap, will dominate the climate response technology market.

‘USA preferred stockPresident-elect Trump’s second administration, which advocates ‘righteousness’ and ‘isolationism,’ is highly likely to give up global leadership in climate response.

President-elect Trump has already pledged to re-withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement (Paris Agreement), which President Joe Biden re-joined immediately after taking office. CNBC predicted that the Republican Party could announce its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement early next year and complete the process by early 2026 as it secured majority seats in both the Senate and House of Representatives and secured control of Congress.

BMO Capital Markets analysts predicted last week that President-elect Trump may withdraw from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) rather than the Paris Agreement.

Meanwhile, China is increasing its presence in the low-carbon technology market and eyeing a potentially vacant position as global climate leader. Joanna Lewis, an associate professor at Georgetown University and an expert on international climate policy, told CNBC, “China wants to play a more active role internationally in climate response.” In particular, it was analyzed that the moment the United States falls behind in the low-carbon technology market, China can dominate the market.

Associate Professor Lewis said, “All countries need these (low-carbon) technologies,” adding, “Unless each country develops the technology on its own and other countries (other than China) actively enter the market, the technology will not be available to China.” “It is inevitable that dependence will continue to grow,” he explained.

According to the ‘Sustainable Trade and Sustainable Supply Chain’ report published by the China Council for International Cooperation in Environment and Development (CCICED), China’s low-carbon technology exports are rapidly increasing. In 1992, China’s low-carbon technology exports amounted to only $800 million, and its global market share was only 1.1%. However, in 2022, China’s low-carbon technology exports rapidly increased to $257 billion, and its market share increased to 22.8%.

The report evaluated that China is changing the dynamics of the low-carbon technology market, saying, “In particular, developed countries that were major exporters of low-carbon technology are turning into net importers in the late 2000s.” As China’s market dominance expands, the dependence of developing countries and newly industrialized countries on China will inevitably increase.

Associate Professor Lewis also emphasized that the IRA, which President-elect Trump is hinting at abolishing, is “a bill to compete with China in the core clean energy industry” and that “we must not make the ‘mistake’ of handing over global climate leadership to China.”

President-elect Trump’s transition team is taking steps to abolish IRA, including considering discontinuing IRA-based electric vehicle subsidies.

BloombergNEF analyzes that if IRA is abolished, the scale of new and renewable energy that can be expanded over the next 10 years from 2025 will decrease by 17%.