141 WTCA44 KNHC 132332 TASAT4 BULLETIN Potential for Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A SNM National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 700 PM EST Wednesday November 13, 2024 …LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS ARE EXPECTED IN HONDURAS BY THE END OF THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND… SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST…0000 UTC…INFORMATION ————————- ——————— LOCATION…16.1N 79.5W ABOUT 260 MI…415 KM JAN FROM CABO THANK GOD ON THE BORDER OF NIC/ HON AROUND 425 MI…685 KM E OF GUANAJA ISLAND HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH…45 KM/H CURRENT MOVEMENT…O 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE …1005 MB…29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS ——————– CHANGES WITH THIS WARNING: None SUMMARY OF LIVE WATCHES AND WARNINGS: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for… * Punta Castilla, to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for… * Honduras/Nicaragua Border to Puerto Cabezas A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the surveillance area. A watch is usually issued 48 hours before the first occurrence of tropical storm-force winds, conditions that make outdoor preparations difficult or difficult. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, monitor products issued by your national weather service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ———————- At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 79.5 West . The system is moving west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow westward motion should continue for a day or two, bringing the system across the western Caribbean Sea. The disturbance is expected to stop and meander near the northern coast of Honduras through Friday and into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Thursday and will continue to strengthen if it remains over water. * Formation probability up to 48 hours…high…90 percent. * Formation probability up to 7 days…high…90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ———————- Key messages for potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under the AWIPS heading MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the website hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAIN: Through early next week, rain amounts of 10 to 20 inches are expected with isolated storm totals around 30 inches above northern Honduras.This rainfall will cause life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere in the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala and western Nicaragua, potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential for landslides. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area on Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible Thursday night. Tropical storm conditions may be observed within the watch area by Thursday night. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels up to 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near onshore wind areas along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the storm surge will be accompanied by large, destructive waves. NEXT WARNING ————- Next full warning at 1000 PM EST. $$ Cangialosi Forecaster *** This product has been processed automatically using a translation program and may contain omissions and errors. The National Weather Service cannot guarantee the accuracy of the converted text. If there is any doubt, the English text is always the authorized version. ***
