Home » News » Typhoon No. 25 (Usagi) slows down south of Taiwan; watch out for the impact on Sakishima, Okinawa

Typhoon No. 25 (Usagi) slows down south of Taiwan; watch out for the impact on Sakishima, Okinawa

2024/11/13 17:10 Weather News

From 15:00 Wednesday, November 13, there are three typhoons at the same time: Typhoon No. 23 (Trazi), Typhoon No. 24 (Manny), and Typhoon No. 25 (Usagi). 25 is expected to change course to the north near the Philippine island of Luzon before it slows. It is possible that it will affect Okinawa and Sakishima.
» Latest typhoon information

Will Typhoon No. 25 win over Okinawa this weekend?

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▼ Typhoon No. 25 November 13th (Wednesday) 15:00
Central eastern location of the Philippines
size class //
strong strength class
Moving northwest 25 km/h
Mean pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed 35 m/s (near center)
Maximum instantaneous wind speed 50 m/s

Typhoon No. is expected to strengthen. 25, which has become a powerful force, tomorrow, the 14th (Thursday), and will approach Luzon Island in the Philippines. After that, it is likely to change course slightly to the north, heading towards Taiwan and Okinawa’s Sakishima Island.

However, from the 16th (Saturday) onwards, the prediction cycle is large, and there is a lot of uncertainty about the path. It is expected to slow, and the impact on Okinawa and Sakishima could be long.

Typhoon No. 25 (Usagi) slows down south of Taiwan; watch out for the impact on Sakishima, Okinawa
Reference Numerical simulation results of the course calculated by meteorological organizations around the world

The amount of uncertainty in the path can be easily understood by looking at the simulation results.

Each thin line in this diagram represents the results of numerical simulations measured by meteorological organizations around the world. These are the calculation results for the center of the cyclone using a technique called ensemble forecasting, and by deliberately adding errors to the original values, they can be used to improve the reliability of the forecast to study.

By comparing them, after reaching the northeast of Luzon Island in the Philippines, predictions are divided into two: one course is to move westward through the South China Sea, and the other course is to move eastward near Okinawa. Furthermore, although it is difficult to see in this diagram, even on the eastward course, there is a significant change in speed.

Although the latest calculation results show a slight increase in the number of planets moving east, both possibilities still exist.

probability of entering the storm zone of a typhoon

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The following are the prefectural forecast areas where the probability of entering the typhoon storm area within the next 5 days is 3% or higher. (Japan Meteorological Agency)
Okinawa is the main area of ​​the islands
North and South Central Main Island 5%
Kerama/Aguni Islands 8%
11%
Miyakojima Region 32%
Yaeyama district
Ishigaki Island Area 45%
Yonagunijima area 47%

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It is expected that Typhoon No. 24 to be a formidable force

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▼ Typhoon No. 24 November 13th (Wednesday) 15:00
Location of the center of the Mariana Islands
size class //
Strength class //
Move west 20 km/h
Mean pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed 18 m/s (near center)
Maximum instantaneous wind speed 25 m/s

Typhoon No. is expected to continue. 24 Typhoon No. 25 to the west. It is expected to develop rapidly from tomorrow, the 14th (Thursday), as moist air becomes more readily available. It will be a strong force on the 15th (Friday) and a very strong force on the 16th (Saturday), approaching Luzon Island in the Philippines.

At the beginning of next week, high pressure will extend south from the continent, so the possibility of turning north is lower than for No. 25, and is currently expected to land in the Philippines and then on to South China as.

Typhoon season continues

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This is the first typhoon that occurred in three days since Typhoon No. 23 and Typhoon No. 24 on the 9th (Saturday) of this month, and the fourth from the beginning of this month. The average number of typhoons in November is 2.2, and although it is still not uncommon for typhoons to occur, this year the number of typhoons is particularly high.

Although the number of typhoons approaching and making landfall decreases after November, there are records of typhoons making landfall on Honshu in late November, so we can’t let our guard down just yet.
» Radar satellite cloud imaging method

Typhoon No. 23 to become a tropical cyclone in the South China Sea

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▼ Typhoon No. 23 November 13th (Wednesday) 15:00
The location of the middle of the South China Sea
size class //
Strength class //
Moving northwest 15 km/h
Mean pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed 20 m/s (near center)
Maximum instantaneous wind speed 30 m/s

Typhoon No. 23 landed in the Philippines, dumping heavy rain, and is now moving towards the South China Sea. It is expected to continue moving west as it weakens, and will become a tropical cyclone by the day after tomorrow, the 15th (Friday).

the name of a typhoon

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For the names of typhoons that appear in the northwest Pacific Ocean or in the South China Sea, 140 names have been prepared in advance, proposed by countries that are members of the international organization “Typhoon Commission”, and are specified in the order in which they occur. happen

The name “Toraji/도라지” was used for Typhoon No. 23 was proposed by North Korea (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) and comes from the Korean word for bell-flower.

The name “Man-yi” was used for Typhoon No. 24 was proposed by Hong Kong and was taken from the name of the strait which is now a reservoir.

The name “Usagi” was used for Typhoon No. 25 was proposed by Japan and it comes from the constellation Rabbit.
» Typhoon radar mode

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Reference materials etc.

  • 2024-11-13 08:10:00
    #Typhoon #Usagi #slows #south #Taiwan #watch #impact #Sakishima #Okinawa

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