HOUSTON – Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential elections has sown uncertainty in the migrant community, local merchants and construction companies in Houston and its surroundings, one of the most populated regions in Texas.
“The entire workforce depends on immigrants,” says Nancy Quintanilla, owner of a Latin restaurant in the city, who employs workers from Colombia, Central America and Mexico. This reality is replicated in various sectors of the local economy.
One of the president-elect’s main campaign proposals was the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants, which would have a devastating impact on the local economy.
He also promised to eliminate Temporary Protected Status (TPS) that allows foreigners to work in the United States. According to experts, the elimination of TPS would have cascading effects on several economic sectors, especially construction, housing and agriculture.
As part of that plan, on Sunday night he appointed a “border czar” who warned that the deportation operation will be the largest in history and there will be raids on jobs.
What could be the impact on local construction and housing?
The construction sector in Houston relies heavily on migrant labor, both documented and undocumented. According to the digital portal The Timeas of June of this year about 44.8% of construction workers in Texas were Hispanic or of Latino origin.
According to experts, expelling a large volume of these workers would literally paralyze the construction industry locally in Southeast Texas.
This would have a domino effect on the housing market, which is already facing a shortage of supply at present and which could increase in the long run, resulting in increased house prices.
Regarding agriculture, what would be the impact at the local level?
The Southeast Texas region is a major agricultural center, producing a wide variety of crops, from citrus to vegetables. However, much of this production depends on migrant labor, which represents up to 70% of agricultural workers in some crops.
According to some experts, if this mass deportation is carried out, a large part of the workforce and production capacity would be lost. This could make food more expensive and affect the availability of fresh produce in local markets.
Growth in the economy of Houston and nearby cities
In recent years, Houston and its satellite cities have experienced strong economic growth, with an unemployment rate for September 2024 below 4.4%.
But experts fear that this could be seriously compromised if the mass deportations promised by Trump during his presidential campaign go ahead.
According to the Houston Hispanic Chamber of Commercemore than 85% of businesses in the city have at least one employee without regular immigration status. “It has a great impact because, first of all, many people are afraid, they don’t know what is going to happen,” explains Laura Murillo, president of the organization.
The figures support the importance of the immigrant community in the business fabric:
- Immigrants represent 24% of the population, but they own 42% of the businesses in Houston
- Of every 10 new companies that open in the city, 4 are established by immigrant entrepreneurs
- Businesses owned by immigrants are more likely to create jobs (85%) than those owned by non-immigrants (78%)
- In 2021, 30% of workers in Houston were immigrants
In short, this promise of mass deportation by President-elect Trump threatens to trigger a recession in the economy of Southeast Texas, impacting key sectors such as construction, agriculture and local commerce.
Experts warn that, if carried out, it could be a disaster for the local economy of many cities where the largest population is Latinos and migrants.
In the face of uncertainty, the Hispanic and Central American chambers of commerce are providing tools for entrepreneurs to strengthen their businesses. Meanwhile, the community maintains a resilient attitude.
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