edited by Luca Danese, coordinator of the Eurispes Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics Observatory, article published on 11 November 2024 in the research institute’s magazine “Eurispes.it”, – In 2030, as is known, China will overtake the world’s largest economy. It will accentuate its push towards a market economy driven by internal consumption above all thanks to the strong growth of its middle class, which will reach over 700 million people by 2028. In 2030 it is estimated that China will surpass the United States in the value of trade retail with a forecast of over 12,000 billion dollars, where the middle class is very attracted by the consumption of foreign products. Besides, it’s a very big world digital and over 800 million Chinese regularly use the Internet.
THE MIDDLE CLASS IS POPULAR
The Chinese middle class will reach over 700 million people by 2028. In this context, the Beijing government has announced a major structural investment plan in new technologies with particular support for the development of medium and small provinces and cities. The sectors of most immediate interest for the potential of Italian companies are in the field of environmental protection and, above all, energy transition. In particular, for the exploitation of gas in depleted or depleted wells, for the production of industrial gases, for heating and cooling systems, for the recycling and recovery of industrial oils, in waste technologies and in practice in everything it relates to what is today defined as a circular economy. There is also a lot of space in the construction sector, given China’s tendency towards the “recovery” of buildings and their energy efficiency. Think of new insulating materials and the use of innovative materials in emerging industrial sectors. China has become the country with the largest volume of rail transport, with a constantly improving rail system. I am referring to progress in the high-speed sector. Italy is competitive on all technologies in this area, and has already demonstrated this through a good presence in China of medium-sized high-tech companies in the field of signaling and security systems.
PIN OF ITALIAN EXPORT
The cornerstone of Italian exports remains the mechanical industry, while the food and the world of fashion they do not cover more than 15% of exports. After Italy’s exit from the BRI (the so-called New Silk Road), agreement of which our country had unfortunately not been able to exploit the great opportunities, the collaboration was relaunched with the reactivation of the so-called bilateral strategic partnership which should be concentrated, in particular, on new technologies, automation, aerospace, on housing innovation, in the world of urbanization and in the environmental sector. The cornerstone of Italian exports still remains the mechanical industry, while food and the world of fashion do not cover more than 15% of our total exports. Unfortunately we have not managed to develop the enormous potential, including geographical, of our ports and the choice of the port of Piraeus by the Chinese still represents an important missed opportunity for our Port System. Italy has officially joined the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank since 2016 but has not yet made the most of this opportunity, although it has subscribed with approximately 2.57 billion dollars for 2.66% of the capital with the status of founding member.
PENETRATION OF CHINESE CAPITAL INTO ITALIAN STRATEGIC COMPANIES
The Central Bank of Beijing is present in the capital of Leonardo, Enel, Eni, furthermore, despite the difficulties in political relations in recent years, China continues to have the need for European markets, despite the important agreements they have stipulated in Asia and in Africa. Moreover, Beijing remains very present in our public, industrial and financial system. The Chinese Central Bank is in the capital of Leonardo Spa (formerly Finmeccanica) and in that of Enel and Eni. The State Grid of China owns 35% of Cdp Reti which controls Terna, Snam and Italgas, i.e. the managers of the Italian electricity and gas networks with their own representatives on the boards of directors. These are just some examples of the presence of Chinese capital in public companies but obviously there is much more (such as Pirelli or Autostrade SpA). This demonstrates how structural relations are now between China and Italy, and for this reason the recent trips of the President of the Republic, Sergio Mattarella, and that of the Council of Ministers, Giorgia Meloni, are of particular importance. It is hoped that this will lead to a progressive rebalancing of the Italian industrial presence and mutual exchanges.
COMMERCIAL EXCHANGE
Chinese exports to Italy exceed 60 billion euros, but Italian exports to China are around 20 billion. In this context, the continuation of the bilateral dialogue between our Authorities for the protection of intellectual property is of particular importance for our companies, with particular attention to the needs of our small and medium-sized enterprises. The risk of intellectual property infringement regarding trademarks and the fear of counterfeiting are still obstacles for our businesses and the so-called “Italian sounding” is still very widespread. Certainly, this period of strong political instability with the West does not help to strengthen the resourcefulness of our potential investors, but we must have the courage to look beyond the immediate and seize all the opportunities for collaboration.
