With the extreme right ante portas at the pan-European level, Trump’s re-election is coming to sow panic among European leaders. Beyond the problems they face in their countries and in the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine, the sense of fear
as recorded at the EU summit in Budapest it appears to be universal and not just about security. The web of challenges that a Trump victory confronts them with is more complex and understandable in the case of Germany. Europe’s hyperspeed now looks like a “coal miner” after the involvement in the war in Ukraine which brought about high energy costs. Its auto industry is struggling, workers are on strike and threatening escalation, the budget is pending and now Germany’s coalition government is collapsing.
With the problems of the automobile industry, and especially of Volkswagen, but also the layoffs after the bad financial data as a whole, the responsibilities landed on the shoulders of the – now former – minister of finance, liberal Christian Lindner.
How did the rupture come about?
Relations between the governing coalition parties were turbulent almost from the moment of the inauguration until the divorce with Lindner and the Free Democratic Party (FDP). The government has long been unable to take a clear position on critical issues, from foreign policy to the economy and energy.
The Scholz-Lidner conflict eventually led to the ouster of the latter and his party, indicative of the situation in the governing coalition and in the country at a time when the world is changing after Trump’s victory. The rift came as budget chief Lindner insisted the German government should stick to strict fiscal rules on debt while simultaneously cutting taxes – in the spirit of Trump – curbing social spending and relaxing laws on environmental pollutants. . However, both the Social Democrats (SPD) of Olaf Solz and the Greens demanded an increase in spending on the welfare state in general and also the support of German industry with funds and subsidies. In addition, according to Soltz, Lindner had also refused to increase aid to Ukraine.
After the rift and while the 2025 budget remains up in the air, the chancellor and the government will seek a vote of confidence by January 15 at the latest. Because without the FDP the government does not have a parliamentary majority and most likely will not, the country will be headed for early elections in May at the latest. Analysts estimate that the polls may be held immediately, given the unbearable international and internal pressure for a return to stability.
Far right high
After Trump’s victory, the main problem in German political life, which will grow, is the rise of the extreme right and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.
In the opinion polls, it does not seem to be retreating (second with 18%) despite the extreme right turn of the official opposition of the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) who are the first party to emerge (32%).
The percentages of the parties in the governing coalition have plummeted: close to 4% – below the threshold for entering the Bundestag – the FDP, the SPD at 15% and the Greens at 10%. However, Zara Wagenknecht’s (BSW) left-conservative formation is rising (8%).
New pressures on the German economy
Developments will be largely determined by the changes expected on the occasion of Trump’s election victory. German leadership is being asked to quickly weigh moves to stabilize its production and trade model, as with the Trump administration threatening tariffs it is certain that the competition that is already tearing apart the German auto industry will no longer be just on the Chinese side.
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