Key findings:
- Bitcoin has hit new all-time highs and crypto markets are rallying across the board in anticipation of a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment in the US since Trump won the US election.
- The recent US election results suggest that the political mood in the US has shifted significantly towards a crypto-friendly stance, which is likely to accelerate the overall adoption of crypto assets.
- The decline in political uncertainty in the US could be the catalyst for a renewed bull run in Bitcoin and cryptoassets.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin has reached new all-time highs and crypto markets are recovering across the board in anticipation of a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment in the US.
Trump is likely to win both a majority in the electoral college and the popular vote in the recent US presidential election. At the time of writing the report shows Odds from Polymarket already a probability of 99%, and that New York Times estimates the probability of Trump winning the presidency at around 93%.
In addition, there is a high probability of a so-called “Republican sweep” that includes both the presidency and the majority in the House and Senate. According to the latest odds from Polymarket This probability is currently 92%. The Republicans have already officially secured the majority in the Senate.
It is very likely that the final election result is already today is fixed.
The recent US election results indicate that the political mood in the US has shifted significantly towards a crypto-friendly stance, which has increased the adoption of cryptoassets by the masses, such as here described, will probably accelerate.
Bernie Moreno (R) defeated Sherrod Brown (D) in the Senate election in Ohio. Before the election, Moreno publicly stated that he would defend the crypto industry in the Senate and fight Senator Warren’s “war on crypto.” Meanwhile, Brown voted against repealing SAB121 earlier this year and has openly spoken out against crypto.
At the time of writing, the vast majority of elected congressmen and senators in the House and Senate are, according to the by provided data for crypto.
Although both presidential candidates – Trump and Harris – made pro-crypto statements before the election, Trump has made direct promises to the Bitcoin and crypto industry, which is even part of the official program were.
There are several reasons why this is relevant for crypto assets:
- A more crypto-friendly stance from US regulators will likely allow for a greater variety of investment options such as ETFs. There are still several spot crypto ETFs awaiting SEC approval, including spot ETFs on Solana and XRP.
- Cryptoasset service providers will be able to operate more freely and will likely face less pressure from regulators, meaning the so-called “Operation Chokepoint 2.0” will likely end.
Additionally, Trump has made several positive campaign promises, including the following:
- Building a strategic national Bitcoin inventory
- Creation of favorable regulations to promote domestic Bitcoin mining (“Bitcoin made in the USA”)
- Establish a Bitcoin/Crypto Advisory Board in the first 100 days of the term
- Replace SEC boss Gary Gensler, who is rumored to be critical of cryptoassets
The cryptoasset markets have already performed very well in anticipation of these developments.
Nonetheless, the decline in political uncertainty in the US could be the catalyst for a renewed bull run in Bitcoin and cryptoassets, such as here described.
We would like to reiterate 2 important observations about US election cycles:
1. Observation: Bitcoin performed relatively well after the past US presidential elections in 2012, 2016 and 2020, regardless of which party won.
