Former President Trump’s performance among Latino and Hispanic voters provided one of the bright spots for Republicans on Election Day as the former president made inroads in a crucial voting bloc.
Despite the backlash Trump received at a rally that featured a comedian making racist jokes about Puerto Ricans and Latinos, the former president appeared to grow his support across demographics. Trump narrowly flipped Osceola County, in central Florida, which has a significant Puerto Rican population, by just over 1 point. By comparison, President Biden won the county by nearly 14 points in 2020, and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton won the county by nearly 25 points in 2016.
In Arizona, the former president appeared to outperform his 2020 performance in Yuma and Santa Cruz counties, which have large Hispanic populations, but votes are still being counted in the state.
no wayCNN exit pollHarris won among Latino voters over Trump, 52% to 46%. This figure is a single digit ahead of President Biden, who surpassed Trump.Among the group, increased from 65% to 32% in 2020.
Notably, Trump won Latino men by 12 points over Harris this cycle. That’s a whopping 35-point margin since 2020, when Biden won the group by 23 points. Harris won comfortably among Latinas, outscoring Trump by 22 points, but a stark difference from Biden’s 39-point lead among the cohort just four years ago.
“President Donald J. Trump will address the issues that matter most to our communities: cutting costs, recovering our economy, restoring American prosperity, securing our borders, and keeping us safe at home and abroad,” said Danielle Alvarez, a senior adviser to the Trump campaign. “As President Trump said in his victory speech: “Now is the time to get to work and deliver for the American people.”
Warning signs that parts of the Latino voting bloc are shifting toward the Republican Party have been clear to Democrats for years. In 2022, Republicans made gains in Florida voting rights, particularly in Cuban and Puerto Rican communities. Ron DeSantis (R) won 58% of the state’s Latino vote, including 68% of Cuban Americans and 56% of Puerto Ricans.
And polls ahead of the 2024 election show Trump showing promising signs among Latino voters, especially young Latino men.
“It’s more widespread than isolated young Latino men,” said Mike Madrid, a Republican strategist who specializes in Latino voting behavior and trends. “Although it is particularly prominent there.”
“Young Hispanic men alone are not enough to turn Osceola County around,” he said.
Madrid argued that the significant shift among Latino voters is part of a “long-term generational trajectory.”
“This is the emergence of a new type of voter, a non-white, working-class populist voter,” he said.
Republicans argue that these changes are both a move toward the Republican Party and a rejection of Democratic policies on issues such as the economy and immigration.
“There’s been a long-standing concern about, for example, if you go to South Texas and enter those communities, there’s actually an influx of illegal immigrants coming into their communities,” one Republican strategist said. That’s true about issues like school choice and abortion.
According toPew Research Center surveyA survey released in March found that 75% of Hispanics in the U.S. said the increasing number of immigrants crossing the southern border was an “important problem or crisis,” and 74% said they were critical of the way the government was handling the situation. The poll also found that 51% said addressing the southern border should be a top priority for the president and Congress.
“The trend was already there, and thankfully Republicans didn’t recognize it, and historically haven’t recognized it, as Democrats have. Frankly, they treated most minorities in the party the same,” the strategist said. “They treated a Hispanic voter in Texas or Arizona the same as a black voter.”
“That is not a coalition. That’s laziness and taking people for granted.”
DJ Quinlan, former executive director of the Arizona Democratic Party, suggested it’s much simpler. Latino and Hispanic voters are affected by the same trends as other major voting groups.
“It’s a big mistake to focus the story of Donald Trump’s victory on the story of more Latinos voting for him and not take into account the overall broader social trends that are happening,” Quinlan explained. “There has been a broad movement across the board, and I would say it is driven more by misinformation and economic instability than anything else.”
“As a Latino myself, I worry that Latinos will be disproportionately affected by many of the policies that the Trump administration appears to be leaning toward, such as repealing the (Affordable Care Act) and obviously mass deportations. .”
Many believe Trump’s standing with the Latino community has been shaken following a massive rally at New York’s Madison Square Garden late last month, where comedian Tony Hinchcliffe referred to Puerto Rico as a “floating island of trash” and made crude jokes about Latinos and Latinos. I believed it existed. childbirth. Republican lawmakers, including Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), quickly condemned the remarks, and Trump and his campaign distanced themselves from Hinchcliffe.
The Harris campaign used the controversy to step up outreach to Latino voters that was already underway. However, in the end, the controversy does not appear to have had a significant impact on voting rights.
“Across the country, we’ve seen Latino voters being verbally abusive,” said Dan Eberhart, a Trump donor. “I think it’s a paradigm shift in American politics that’s potentially bigger than this election.
