The tycoon’s return to the White House presents China with several challenges, but also some opportunities
“78 is the age to make it big”. With a couple of smiley face emoticons. On Chinese social media, after talking for months about “soap operas for octogenarians” about the hypothetical challenge between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, many do not fail to underline the age of the next president of the United States. This is an “old acquaintance”, with which some netizens are convinced that in the next four years “there will be fun”. It is difficult to understand whether even in the halls of Chinese political power there is a desire to smile as we approach the new plunge into the unknowns of Trump’s bis. Or perhaps Kamala Harris and her promise of continuity would have been preferred, even if the status quo is far from Beijing’s desires. Late in the evening, a meager statement of compliments arrived from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs: “We respect the choice of the American people and extend our congratulations to Trump.” In 2020, it took Biden over eight days to do the same. But the “most uncertain election ever,” as one viral hashtag on Weibo put it, turned out to be a quicker ruling than expected.
Opinions on the scenarios are conflicting. The feeling is that problems and challenges can prevail in relations with Washington, while outside of bilateral schemes there are also various opportunities. Wu serious crisis. The space for cooperation will be dramatically with the Trump administration, including on climate change.”
On top of the problems, trade. Trump has repeatedly threatened the imposition of monstrous 60% tariffs on imports of Chinese products. According to some estimates, the impact on Beijing’s GDP could reach up to 2.5%. A bad blow for the Communist Party, which is trying with great difficulty to revive a still limping economy. It is certainly no coincidence that the markets’ reaction to Trump’s victory yesterday was negative. In particular, the Hong Kong stock market closed down 2.23%, with the main technology stocks losing more than 4%, including Alibaba. The concrete fear is that of new sanctions and restrictions on supply chains, following in the wake of what happened both in Trump’s first term with the “fatwa” against Huawei and with the “small yard, high fence” strategy promoted by the Biden administration . Risk reduction for the White House, decoupling in disguise for Beijing. Xi Jinping could react by taking up the bazooka and approving larger-than-expected stimulus measures for the economy. On a diplomatic level, he could try to assert the personal relationship flaunted by Trump himself to titillate his ego as a “businessman”.
It is unlikely that Taiwan will be able to enter into any “major agreement”, as Beijing expects new “provocations”. In 2016, Trump accepted a phone call from Tsai Ing-wen, then Taiwanese president. An episode that set in motion a series of dynamics that can still be observed today, when tensions with Taipei show no signs of respite.
The risks of potential crises between the Strait and the South China Sea remain, but at the same time China sees some opportunities in the potential fraying of the American alliance system. Pressing to end the war in Ukraine could legitimize the Chinese position and reduce pressure on relations with Moscow, removing the main obstacle to détente with Europe. The fear of isolationist disengagement, or at least the predictable controversies over defense spending with allies, could instead facilitate dialogue with Asian neighbors. Then there is a rhetorical aspect: with Trump again, Xi has the second opportunity to present himself as the “protector” of multilateralism and free trade. In any case, the competition remains: the rules of the game could change.
Di Lorenzo Lamperti
[Pubblicato su il Manifesto]
Born in 1984, journalist. Editorial director of China Files, he takes care of the production of thematic monthly mini e-books and the periodic review “Go East” on Italy-China-East Asia relations. Responsible for the editorial coordination of the Italy-ASEAN Association. He writes about China and Asia for various newspapers, including La Stampa, Il Manifesto, Affaritaliani, Eastwest. He also collaborates with ISPI. He curates the “Asian Pills” review on Asian geopolitics.
