The analyst Nate Silverone of the most popular and followed forecasters in the United States, put this Tuesday, the last election day in the United States, at Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump, although for a very slight differencein the latest simulation of electoral scenarios of its predictive model.
This It is the first time that during the Harris-Trump electoral duel Silver’s famous model gives a statistical advantage to the vice president and candidate of the Democratic Party.
Using 80,000 simulations, double what it usually does, and just as election Tuesday began, at the stroke of midnight, the result showed a 50.015% for Harris and 49.985% for TrumpThat is, the Democrat won in 40,012 simulated scenarios to reach the necessary 270 electoral votes.
In the rest of the cases, the model showed 39,718 possible scenarios that would lead to Trump’s victory and 270 that would end in an exact tie.
If this is confirmed, It could be the case that there was an unprecedented tie of delegates (269-269) in the Electoral College that is finally decided by the presidentand that will translate into a probable victory for Trump, since it would be the House of Representatives that would break the tie, and in the Lower House the Republicans have the majority.
Nate Silver
The Silver Bulletin website, which publishes these statistics and analyses, was created by Nate Silver, founder of ABC News’ polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight, and has become one of the most followed by political commentators, journalists and other observers. .
The change in the direction of the projections in favor of Harris, who has to prevail over Trump in some of the seven states considered pivotal this year to obtain the magic number of 270 delegates, has also occurred in recent days in other analyses, despite the fact that most polls give a technical tie in almost all the key states.
The pollster Ann Selzer predicted this weekend an unexpected victory for Harris in Iowa, a state that has been considered a Trump stronghold throughout this campaign.something that goes against a majority of surveys, but that can reveal cracks in support for the Republican.
This Monday, Nevada journalists and political analyst Jon Ralston, who has been successful in tied electoral races in polls in that state in recent years, predicted that Harris will win Nevada’s six electoral commissioners by a pyrrhic margin of three tenths, but that it could frustrate Trump’s options to return to the White House. EFE
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