Going into the final stretch for the US presidential election, one of the main topics of debate was: are voters overestimating Donald Trump‘s percentage and underestimating it Harris?
The answer was given again a few hours ago: Trump’s percentage was underestimated again, as it was in 2016 and to some extent in 2020, and now Mr. Trump has something his achievement that Republicans have not achieved in 20 years: he won in the popular population. vote, at the time of writing with over 5 million votes in relation to Ms Harris. The last Republican to do so was George W. Bush in 2004, against John Kerry. At the same time, Trump managed to bring the Senate back into the hands of the Republicans, while it is likely that he will also win in the so-called swing states.
However, Trump is officially the 47th President of the USA as he won the 279 electoral votes.
The horizontal effect
Trump’s strategy is clearly working, as he focused on issues of real concern to the average American citizen. Exit polls showed that Americans were mostly disappointed or even angry with the state of the country after the Biden presidency, with the cost of living having risen to unimaginable heights. Mr. Trump raised the economy, but also the issue of immigration, which seems to have caught on, not only in several areas, but also with social groups, such as Hispanic voters.
The qualitative difference between Mr. Trump’s result and Ms. Harris’s was this: he held Republican strongholds with comfortable majorities and then carved out flat majorities, even increasing Republican percentages in Republican strongholds. In another light, this could also be read as the underachievement of Vice President Harris, who seems not to have made much inroads into the Democratic public and in many cases failed with the result that Joe Biden got in 2020. Perhaps that explains the reluctance of the current president to support her more actively and stand by her side in pre-election events. Mr. Biden may no longer be the right candidate for the Democrats, but politically he is experienced.
Where did Trump win?
Some data that came out of the Edison exit poll shows Mr. Trump’s victory. Kamala Harris won among women with 54% to Mr. Trump’s 44%, but Mr. Trump increased his share by two points. Mr. Trump won 55% to 43% among white voters, although he is 3 points below 2020. Trump’s immigration-related “rise” is mostly coming to Hispanic voters, who despite Puerto Rico coke. Mr. Trump took 45% of the Hispanic vote and Ms. Harris 53%, but Mr. Trump’s increase is 13 points compared to 2020. In fact, among Hispanic men, Mr. Trump wins statewide Mr. Harris with 54% to 44%, 18 points above 2020.
And the analysis by age group, based on exit census data, is particularly interesting. Ms Harris’s campaign was aimed primarily at younger voters, investing in their massive movement. In fact, among the 18-29 age group, Ms. Harris won with 55% to 42% for Mr. Trump, who, however, rose by 6 points from 2020. Among voters aged 30-44, that is, in the age result, the gap closes as well as another gap with Ms. Harris generally by 51% to 46%. The reversal occurs in the 45-64 age group, as Mr. Trump prevails by 53% to 45% and among voters over the age of 65 it is largely co-opted. equal to us, with 50% of Ms. Harris and 49% of Mr. Trump.
Harris’s lukewarm performance
In the Democratic camp, the storm was evident on the campus of Howard University, where Ms. Harris was expected but did not appear. It’s not just that he lost in the states that make up the “blue wall”, namely Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, where Mr. Biden managed to win in 2020. And he didn’t “keep a stronghold” of Republicans, Georgia, in which Mr. Biden registered a narrow victory. Ms. Harris’s main problem is that even in traditional Democratic strongholds she won, she was worse than Mr. Biden.
In New York, say, Ms. Harris won by 12 points, compared to 23 in 2020. In New Jersey, by just over 4 points, compared to 16 in 2020. In Massachusetts, she lost by 7 points from her victory in 2020 (26 of 33), in Rhode Island 10 (13 of 23), in Connecticut 12 (8 of 20), in Maryland 10 (22 of 33) and in Delaware (Mr. Biden’s seat ) 5 points (14 of 19). With these numbers, it’s clear that Ms. Harris didn’t really have a chance to win in the swing states after all. And he failed to win even one of the seven states!
Source: protothema.gr
