Mexico City. The Mexican economy stagnated its growth and will show weak behavior in the first quarter of 2025, suggests the Composite Indicator System: coincident and leading, calculated by Inegi.
The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) specified that the leading indicator, which suggests the behavior of the economy in the short term, was positioned marginally above its long-term trend, presenting a value of 100.1 points in September , which represented a drop of 0.12 points compared to August, its fifth consecutive drop.
The fall of said indicator was a consequence of the decrease in three of its six components, among which the behavior of the Price and Quotation Index (IPC) stands out, which represents a sample of the shares listed on the Mexican Stock Exchange (0.08 units ); the business confidence indicator, the right time to invest (0.16 percent); and the equilibrium interest rate (0.14 points).
The slowdown of the national economy also comes hand in hand with the effects of the manufacturing employment trend, which is advancing only 0.1 points.
However, the advance of the US stock index S&P 500 (0.12 points) and the exchange rate of 0.49 points suggest a moderate behavior of the economy in the coming months.
For its part, the coincident indicator, which reflects the behavior of the current economy, was located above its long-term trend, registering a value of 100 points in August, its level of its long-term trend, and presented a monthly decrease of 0.02 points, 13 consecutive fall readings, which showed an exhaustion of the economy at the end of 2023 and during 2024.
With the new information, the coincident indicator maintained the contraction trend reported in recent months.
The result of the coincidence was due to the negative performance of four of the six components that comprise it. The positive performance of the global indicator of economic activity (Igae), showing a growth of 0.03 points and the urban unemployment rate advanced 0.02 points, supported the indicator.
However, industrial activity fell 0.02 points and total imports (0.04 points).
The insured permanent workers in the IMSS, with a drop of 0.03 points; Supply income (0.05 points) supported the current weakness of the national economy.
Thus, the falls in the latest readings of the coincident and leading indicators of the Cyclical Indicator System affirm the weakness of the Mexican economy.
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