For the past few months, experts on both sides of the 2024 US presidential election have been analyzing polls and other data that could provide clues about voting behavior in the seven battleground states that will determine the outcome. Of these, the economic conditions of each of the seven states will have a particularly strong influence on voter behavior.
The U.S. economy as a whole has made a remarkable recovery from the recession caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Data released over the past week showed continued strong growth despite temporary factors such as hurricanes and labor unrest that affected the labor market.
Related article: US GDP expands at a steady pace in July-September – personal consumption exceeds expectations
However, the economic situation in each of the seven battleground states is more complex. The seven states have a total population of 61 million people and an economic size of $4.4 trillion, which is comparable to Germany’s gross domestic product (GDP).
Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina experienced rapid growth driven by investment and population inflows. Meanwhile, in the Rust Belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, growth has been slow and patchy, and some counties are facing population declines. In Nevada, the damage caused by the coronavirus pandemic to the tourism industry is still weighing heavily.
Voters have consistently ranked the economy as their top priority in polls conducted by Bloomberg News and Morning Consult in battleground states.
What is the single most important issue to you when deciding how to vote in the November 2024 election for US president?
Share of swing-state likely voters who said:
When asked which candidate they trust most on the economy, former Republican President Donald Trump has led in multiple polls for much of this year. However, the gap has narrowed since Vice President Harris was nominated as the Democratic candidate. This tendency is especially noticeable when the target is a specific issue, such as Harris being trusted to bring down housing costs.
Some of the main characteristics of battleground state economies are summarized below.
According to official statistics released in late September, the economy in six of the seven battleground states grew faster than the nation as a whole in the April-June period (second half).
Related article: Economic growth in most U.S. battleground states outpaces the nation as a whole – tailwind for Harris
Economic Growth Outperforms in Most US Swing States
Michigan and Wisconsin GDP growth among fastest in the second quarter
From April 2020 to July 2023, the U.S. population grew by 3.4 million people. Hispanics contributed the most to population growth. Meanwhile, the white population decreased by 2.1 million people.
The three states known as the Blue Wall are where the decline in the white population is most noticeable. From 2022 to 2023, the white population fell by 194,000 in Pennsylvania, 91,000 in Michigan, and 35,000 in Wisconsin.
Related article: Hispanics increase by 3.2 million in the U.S., accounting for most of population growth since the coronavirus pandemic
These demographic trends are also related to the uneven recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. There are large disparities within each state. In Pennsylvania, while major metropolitan areas such as Philadelphia and their suburbs recovered faster, counties, home to 40% of the state’s population, had not seen their economies return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2022.
Slow recoveries often accompany population declines, a trend also seen in Michigan and Wisconsin.
Many of those counties were won by Mr. Trump in the 2020 election, and the result is likely to be the same this time around.
Uneven Recovery
Percent of population in swing states living in a county that had not recovered to pre-pandemic GDP levels by end of 2022
Some of the seven battleground states are facing more economic hardship than the rest of the country. The “misery index,” which combines the U.S. unemployment rate and inflation rate, ranks Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania among the highest in the nation.
Misery Index
Going into the election, among the swing states, the combination of inflation and the jobless rate was highest in Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania
Employment is booming in Arizona and Nevada. Employment in both states has increased by more than 10% over the past five years. However, Nevada also has a high unemployment rate. A rise in the unemployment rate does not necessarily mean more layoffs. Unemployment rates may also rise because the population and labor force are growing faster than the local economy’s ability to create jobs.
Still, a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll conducted Oct. 16-20 found that about 70% of Nevada voters said the economy was heading in the wrong direction. This exceeded the average of 68% in the seven battleground states.
Employment Change
Percent change in the number employed over the last 5 years. Among swing states, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina have seen the sharpest growth
Nevada isn’t the only state with an unemployment rate higher than the national average. Michigan’s unemployment rate in September was 4.5%, higher than the national rate of 4.1%.
The rising cost of purchasing a home has become a top concern for many voters. The American Dream is being forced to reconsider as a growing number of Americans feel that a middle-class life is no longer possible.
Related article: The American Dream is receding, and the middle class is showing signs of exhaustion – Economic fault lines covering the election
Housing rents are also rising. Since late 2019, renters in North Carolina, Nevada, and Arizona have faced significantly increased rent costs.
Rent Price Growth
North Carolina, Nevada, and Arizona faced higher rent burdens
There are many factors that drive voters to the polls. For many people, their voting behavior may not be determined by economic issues but by reproductive rights, border security and immigration issues, foreign policy, and the state of American democracy. .
But for voters in battleground states, where the economy is a top priority, the biggest issues are likely to be local issues rather than national issues.
Original title:Uneven Recovery in Swing-State Economies Hangs Over US Election(excerpt)
