Mexico City. The 2025 economic package, the first that the new administration will present, must contain “realistic” macroeconomic assumptions, a commitment to carry out fiscal consolidation and a “credible” path so that public finances have a positive primary balance and not a deficit as the current one, BBVA México, the bank with the greatest presence among those operating in the country, raised this Monday.
“The fundamental thing with the package, in addition to what the Treasury has said, is that it is designed with realistic assumptions of growth, of financial variables such as rates or inflation and exchange rate,” said Carlos Serrano, chief economist of BBVA México.
He considered that “it is also essential that it shows a clear commitment to fiscal consolidation and a credible route to reach a 3 percent deficit, and a credible route to have a primary balance, so that we no longer have a deficit.”
At a press conference, to present the Regional Sectoral Situation report, the chief economist of the financial institution considered that another thing that the 2025 economic package should contain is an item in which the support that the administration will give to Mexican Petroleum (Pemex) and thus the markets calm down.
“It would be important to have an item, again, where the support for Pemex is established, so that there is no doubt for the markets that Pemex will comply with all its credit maturity obligations,” said Serrano.
In the General Precriteria of Economic Policy, presented in April of this year by the government of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) projects that the budget deficit will be 5.9 percent, the highest level in the last 30 years.
And two weeks ago, President Sheinbaum stated that the administration is currently making a significant effort to close the budget “so that everything is in order, there will be no problem. We will have to see what the deficit will be with which we close 2024.”
Deceleration in 2025, more due to internal factors
Serrano pointed out that by 2025, the national economy is expected to advance at a slower pace compared to this year and recalled that this is a normal process when there is a change of government; However, internal factors will have a greater impact than external ones on the loss of dynamism in activity next year.
“In the last 40 years, in Mexico, when there is a change of administration, the spending exercise is slower and that contributes to the slowdown, particularly this year, the effect will be stronger, not only will there be less activity, but that we will see a proposal for important fiscal consolidation that will contribute to the slowdown.
“To the extent that there may be uncertainty about what is going to happen with the reform of the judiciary, that can inhibit investment and that affects growth… So, internal and external factors will play a role in the slowdown, but internal ones They will have greater weight,” Serrano said.
BBVA forecasts that this year, economic growth will be 1.2 percent, and by 2025, it projects that the growth in activity will be 1 percent.
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