A few hours before the polls closed for the American elections, Mr Peter Spiegelthe US director of the Financial Times, explains why the outcome may be decided by which demographic group will be more motivated to go to the polls, what issues are on the minds of American voters and why potential riots the day after the election will be more limited area from those of 2021.
Harris‘s lead over Trump nationwide is less than a percentage point, her smallest lead since mid-August. The battle in the seven ambivalent States remains marginal. Under these circumstances, will a Trump victory or a Harris victory be considered a surprise?
“To be honest, I don’t think anyone here in the US will be surprised by the result. The polls are so marginal that any increase in the turnout of a certain demographic group can be an advantage for any candidate. However, no one knows which demographic group will be the most mobilized or the most likely to turn out to vote. Will it be women who mobilize on the abortion issue and vote for Harris en masse? Will it be angry young men who feel alienated from the political system and vote for Trump? Nobody really knows, expect the unexpected!”
Despite his convictions by the American Justice, his incendiary rhetoric, nonsense, Trump remains popular with many Americans. Why?
“Like the voters of Le Pen in France or the Alternative for Germany (AfD), a large part of the American people has lost their trust in traditional institutions, business, Congress, the media. The financial crisis of 2007 sparked this trend in the US, which I think got worse after the pandemic. In the final weeks of the campaign, Trump’s rhetoric has been outlandish, and his condemnations would have served as a deterrent to any other presidential candidate. But he seems to be expressing the anti-systemic instincts of many Americans for whom fear trumps everything else.”
According to data from the US government, the US economy recovered from the pandemic much faster than predicted. Many Americans, however, are concerned about rising commodity prices and homelessness. How much do these factors determine elections?
“Too, too much. The Financial Times in partnership with the University of Michigan conducts a monthly poll asking voters what the most important issue is to them, and inflation is by far the top of their list. This trend has been stable for a year. Inflation decreased, but the prices of everyday goods did not. And high prices hurt the American working class more than anyone else. And in these traditionally Democratic voters, Trump has achieved the greatest “infiltration”.
What is Harris’ biggest obstacle to winning the election? That she stayed true to most of Biden’s policy choices, such as US support for Israel in the Gaza war? That she is a woman and Americans are not ready to elect a woman president who is also black?
“I don’t think it has anything to do with her gender, her background or support for Israel. It’s what I told you before: the economy. From a macroeconomic perspective, the US economy is doing incredibly well. We have strong growth, strong employment and controlled inflation. But many Americans are affected by accuracy and for them this is the most important thing. Most Americans associate these policies with Biden, not Harris, but she fails to explain how her economic policies differ from his.”
Immigration is a major issue in this election. Many Hispanic voters, descendants of immigrants, will vote for Trump who promises mass deportations of immigrants. How is the paradox explained?
“We easily forget that a huge portion of Hispanic Americans are now third generation, that both they and their parents were born in the US. And those Spanish speakers who are not third generation are second generation. What I am arguing is that 90% of Hispanics are not immigrants. Those in the third generation in particular are primarily concerned about the economy, as are the rest of Americans. Something similar happened in the past with other immigrants in America. Italian and Irish immigrants at the beginning of the 20th century were supporters of the Democrats, but their second and third generation descendants began to vote based on other issues, not just immigration, and turned to the Republicans as well.”
The Western world is watching the election with bated breath, worried about a possible Trump victory, given his stance on NATO, the war in Ukraine and the Middle East. Many Americans, however, do not find it problematic to elect an isolationist president. Aren’t they concerned about US power in the world?
“I’m sorry to say it, but foreign policy never affects American elections — especially when there are no American soldiers fighting.”
People who worked with Trump, such as John Kelly, General A.A. and former White House chief of staff, they call him a fascist. Is Trump really a fascist or just a narcissistic power freak?
“I don’t think it helps to mess around with these kinds of semantic references. As a journalist, I think it’s better to describe a behavior and let readers label it. What we can say about Trump is that he cares more about his own needs than his country’s, and that he is willing to violate the limits of presidential power to achieve this. It is true that he speaks admiringly of dictators and authoritarian leaders and that he despises democratic institutions. I think readers can decide whether these make up the definition of a fascist or a narcissist.”
Most Americans will accept the election results as legitimate. If Harris wins, should we expect an uprising of Trump supporters to overturn the election result?
“I think we’re going to have protests regardless of the winner and certainly a questioning of the result if Harris wins. But let’s remember that the American government is controlled by Biden and not by Trump – as was the case four years ago. Washington is much better prepared for potential post-election violence than it was in 2021, so I think the potential unrest will be more limited.”
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