Kamala Harris et Donald Trump.
© ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS, KAMIL KRZACZYNSKI / AFP
No candidate clearly stands out on this “Election Day”. Nationally, Kamala Harris leads her Republican opponent Donald Trump by less than a percentage point, according to the average of the polls carried out daily by the New York Times. The Democrat has 49% and Donald Trump 48%. In the history of modern polling, there has never been a campaign where the latest polls showed such a close fight.
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris can both count on numerous states which will provide them with at least (barring any major surprises) at least 200 electors each. To win the presidential election, a candidate must obtain at least 270 out of 538. Everything will be played out in the seven “swing states”, that is to say the states most contested between the two camps: Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia and Arizona.
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Still according to data from New York Times, Kamala Harris currently enjoys a one-point lead in Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump enjoys a 1 point lead in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, Georgia and 3 points in Arizona.
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According to data from Fivethirtyeight also, Kamala Harris is narrowly ahead of the Republican candidate: 47.9% against 47%. However, Donald Trump is placed a little higher in five of the “swing states” by only a few thousand votes.
The last time the results were this close was in 2000, during the election between Republican Bush and Democrat Gore. Bush won the election by just 537 votes in the key state of Florida. It took 36 days at the time to decide the duel.
