On Tuesday 5 November 2024 in the United States there will be a vote to elect the new president and renew part of the congress. Former Republican President Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris will compete for the role of 47th president, taking over from Joe Biden. But let’s see in detail how they take place and what there is to know about the 60th presidential election of the United States.
When, how and what you vote for
Elections are held every four years, on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. In reality, many citizens have already expressed their preference through the procedures for early voting: according to i data updated as of November 4ththere are more than 82 million early votesabout the 50 percent of the total votes of the 2020 elections. On that occasion, in the midst of the pandemic, early voting had reached a record number, with over 103 million preferences registered before November 5th.
We also vote to elect the vice president (JD Vance for the Republicans and Tim Walz for the Democrats), to renew the entire House of Representatives, made up of 435 people, and a third of the Senate (34 of the hundred members). Each state is represented in the House based on its population, while each state can count on two seats in the Senate. After regaining it in 2021, the Democrats control the Senate, with 51 seats against the conservatives’ 49. Since 2022, the Republicans have regained the majority in the chamber, with 220 seats against 212 for Kamala Harris’ party. On November 5th there will also be a series of referendums in many states. There are some at every election, but this time there are more (also due to the stalemate caused by political polarization) and could have a greater impact than usual at a national level and also influence the turnout for the presidential elections.
All US citizens aged 18 or over have the right to vote. The president of the United States elected in November will officially begin his term on January 20, 2025.
How the electoral system works
The United States has a system semi-direct election: the president is chosen by the citizens, passing through the so-called electors, who are 538 in total and form the electoral college, foreseen from article 2 of the constitution. The winner is the person who obtains at least 270 votes from the electors, half plus one of the electoral college (the number of which is equal to the number of representatives in congress: 435 deputies, one hundred senators and three representatives for the District of Columbia, where the capital Washington is located ). If no candidate reaches that threshold, it is up to the House to elect the president while the Senate chooses the vice president. The number of electors for each state varies according to its population: for example, California, which has forty million inhabitants, is entitled to 54 electors; while Wyoming, which has six hundred thousand inhabitants, has three. In every state (except Maine and Nebraska, where some votes are attributed by districts) the candidate who obtains the most votes wins all the delegates up for grabs.
Traditionally elections are played on the so-called swing statesa group of states whose result is in the balance between Republicans and Democrats, and therefore decisive for the presidential elections. This year there are seven: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. According to the latest polls, Harris would be ahead (albeit slightly) in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (the three states that form the so-called blue wallthe blue wall, the color of the Democrats) and in Nevada. Trump, however, is ahead in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
As the 2016 elections demonstrated, a candidate can win the popular vote (i.e. get more votes overall than his opponent) and lose the election. Eight years ago Hillary Clinton, the Democratic Party candidate, received three million more votes than Trump, but still lost the election. This is because the Republican candidate managed to win by a few votes in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, the three states of blue wall.
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Usually in the hours after the polls close we begin to understand who is ahead and when in Italy it is 5-6 in the morning we know who has won, but if the gap between the two candidates turns out to be very small it could take a while ‘ moreover. It also doesn’t help that the way the votes are counted they change from one state to another. But there is a deadline: Tuesday 17 December the new electors will have to meet to vote and nominate the president and vice president. They are not legally bound to vote based on the outcome of their state, they only have a political obligation, which throughout the history of the United States has been almost always respected.
What the latest polls say
The findings considered most reliable are Trump and Harris very close in the states considered decisive, in particular in those of blue wallthat is, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. This explains why forecasting models, like those by Nate Silver e dell’Economistgive the two candidates the same probability of victory.
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